This race has me genuinely excited, and it's all about the pace scenario. With Just Fine, Pride Of Jenni and Philia all showing very fast early speed, plus Light Infantry Man ready to roll forward from the speed, we're looking at a genuine speed battle that will set this up beautifully for anything settling off the pace.
The horse I want to be on is Tom Kitten. His Flemington record speaks for itself, and that class drop from Group 1 company gives him a significant edge over this field. Craig Williams knows this track better than anyone, and the way this race will be run should suit his mount perfectly. Tom Kitten maps to settle in the perfect spot and will have every chance to unleash that devastating finish we've seen before.
Birdman is the market favourite but I'm not convinced he's the right price here. His recent form shows some concerning signs, particularly that eighth at the longer trip and sixth over the 2400m. The market has latched onto his last two wins but I think they're overrating him significantly. When a horse drifts from shorter odds, that's usually smart money moving away, and I'd be surprised if he can handle the pressure of favouritism in this grade.
The horse that really interests me at big odds is Light Infantry Man. His wet track record is outstanding, and he'll get the perfect run from the speed in what shapes as a strong pace. Ciaron Maher has him primed for this, and at those odds the market looks wrong to me. He's the type that can run a cheeky race when the pace is genuine.
Pride Of Jenni has been backed heavily but I think the market has overreacted. She maps to be caught up in that early speed battle, and her last run when well beaten suggests she might be feeling the pinch after a long campaign. I'd much rather be with the horses settling off the speed in this scenario.
This is shaping as a race where the speed map tells the story. The genuine pace will create opportunities for the moderate beginners to finish over the top, and that's exactly where I want to be positioned.
Where I Stand
Tom Kitten is my strong selection in the Australian Cup. The combination of class drop, perfect track record, elite jockey, and ideal pace scenario makes him very hard to beat. This race sets up exactly how he wants it run.
Light Infantry Man represents serious value at those odds. His wet track form is exceptional and he'll get every chance from the ideal tactical position. The market has underestimated him badly.
Birdman is the fade of the day for me. The market favourite looks vulnerable based on recent form trends and the way this race will be run. I'd be genuinely shocked if he can justify that short price given the level of opposition and pace scenario.
