Punters, have a go at this.
The Next Episode is $2.20 favourite in the Widden Stakes. Widden Bloodstock bred the horse. The race carries their name. He's had two career starts. One of them was a maiden win at Warwick Farm over 1000m. The other was a Group 3 at Rosehill over 1100m where he ran 11th of 12, beaten 8.72 lengths by Revengeance.
That G3 run is the only line in his form guide that matches today. Same class, same distance. Tommy Berry rode him from barrier 10. He opened $6.50, drifted to $7.50 at the jump, and the field left him behind. Beaten the better part of nine lengths.
And yet here we are, $2.20. Forty-five per cent implied probability for a horse whose G3 record over 1100m reads: started once, finished last bar one, nowhere near them.
The Maiden Win
Ciaron Maher dropped him into a $60,000 two-year-old maiden at Warwick Farm on 11 March. A 1000 metres on a Soft 7, Jason Collett in the saddle, barrier 3, $2.60 favourite. The stable stuck ear muffs and a stallion chain on him for the first time. He won by 0.91 lengths from Under Focus, with Steel Will another 0.72 lengths back in third.
Both of those horses run again today. Under Focus is $9. Steel Will is $10 with James McDonald up for Chris Waller. The horse that beat them by less than a length in a maiden over a hundred metres shorter is four times shorter in the betting.
Neither the ear muffs nor the stallion chain appear in today's gear listing. The two things that helped settle him in his only win are gone.
The Blanks
He has never set foot on Randwick. Both career starts came at Rosehill and Warwick Farm. His first look at this track is in a G3 worth $250,000.
The 24 March trial at Rosehill over 1030m on a Heavy 8 adds a wrinkle. Tornado Valley beat him by 0.28 lengths. Zac Lloyd rode the winner that day. Lloyd takes Incognito today from barrier 2 for Michael Freedman, with blinkers going on for the first time. That trial horse now lines up against him at $7.00.
Where The Value Sits
Blue Door draws barrier 8 under Rachel King for Bjorn Baker at $5.00, carrying 54.5kg with first-time ear muffs. Incognito at $7.00 from the inside gate with Lloyd aboard and the blinkers on. Our model prices The Next Episode at $6.00. Betfair has him at $2.20. That's a gap of three full points.
I tell you what, punters. One maiden win over a thousand metres at Warwick Farm does not make a horse a 45% chance in a G3 over 1100m at a track he's never seen.
You'd be kicking dead backing this at $2.20. I'm going against him.
