Forget the leaderboards for a second. The six-week Sydney Autumn Carnival, running from the first Randwick Saturday on March 7 through Day 2 of The Championships on April 11, produced one result that mattered more than any other to the people who actually pay the bills at this game. It was Changingoftheguard, a $51 chance from Kris Lees, running down Soul Of Spain by a quarter-length in the $2 million Schweppes Sydney Cup.

Fifty-one. In a G1. Over 3200 metres. Ridden by Jason Collett, who doesn't get the phone calls James McDonald gets. Drifted from $61 at the open, which means people did look at him and decide not to bother. Those who did bother cashed the bet of the carnival.

Predictably. McDonald rode 16 winners at carnival-level stakes races across the Sydney region, nine of them at Group 1 level. Chris Waller trained 14 carnival winners, nine of them G1s. The dominant combination in Australian racing stayed dominant.

The week-by-week was relentless. Joliestar won the Canterbury Stakes on March 7, then came back four weeks later and took the T J Smith at $3.90. The sprinter of the carnival. Aeliana won the Ranvet ($1.60) and the Tancred ($1.70) inside a fortnight. Autumn Glow destroyed the George Ryder at $1.28. Autumn Boy took the Rosehill Guineas at $2.45. Ohope Wins won the Australian Oaks at $2.60. Campione D'italia won the Inglis Sires at $4.20.

Nine G1s between them. That's a clean sweep of the middle-distance and staying weight-for-age categories. If you spent the carnival trying to oppose Waller and McDonald in races they liked their horse, you spent the carnival losing money.

The $5 million Queen Elizabeth Stakes, the richest race of the carnival, was supposed to be Autumn Glow's coronation at $1.30. I thought the price was short but the horse was still the right horse. I was wrong.

Sir Delius ($6) beat her by 2.21 lengths for Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott and Craig Williams. Autumn Glow trailed in third. Lindermann, a $31 Waller second-stringer, ran second. A $1.30 chance off the bottom of the market, in the biggest race of the carnival. Gone. The exotics on that race paid anyone who wasn't afraid to leave out the top pick.

That race was the carnival in microcosm. The chalk won more often than not. When it lost, it lost enormously.

On March 21 at Rosehill, Guest House took down the $5 million TAB Golden Slipper at $11, ridden by Zac Lloyd for Mick Price and Michael Kent Jnr. The $5.50 favourite Chayan ran eighth. The $7.50 second pick Streisand ran second. Third was $41 chance Music Time.

A $11 / $7.50 / $41 trifecta in the Slipper. That's the kind of result you don't forget, and Zac Lloyd was only just getting started. He finished the carnival with seven stakes wins, three at Group 1, which is a breakout by anyone's measure.

The upsets that paid the rent:

• Changingoftheguard $51. Sydney Cup, from the second-last barrier band. The Kris Lees stayer of the carnival.
• Beskar $81 then $5.50. Won the Darby Munro Stakes at eighty-one on Slipper Day for Anthony and Sam Freedman. Three weeks later came back and did it again in the South Pacific Classic on Day 2 of The Championships, this time as $5.50 favourite. If you followed that horse after March 21, you paid for the trip.
• Cherry Bomshell $17. Percy Sykes Stakes winner for Annabel and Rob Archibald. A G2 for two-year-old fillies with a $1 million purse, won by one of the longer prices in the field.
• Machine Gun Gracie $17. Epona Stakes at Rosehill on Slipper Day. The Hayes family kept mining value at every Saturday meeting.
• In Flight $15. Sapphire Stakes for Joseph Pride. Craig Williams got a sit, picked the right time to ask, job done.
• Marhoona $12. Kerrin McEvoy stole the Kia Ora Galaxy at $12 for Michael Freedman. A G1 sprint at double-figure odds is the kind of result that makes you glad you didn't fold into the favourite.
• Welwal $11, Roselyn's Star $11. Two Rosehill G3s on March 28 (Doncaster Prelude and Star Kingdom) both went to $11 chances, on the same card. Flat day for the Rosehill favourite backers, very good day for anyone looking sideways at the roughies.

Not every favourite got rolled. The ones that did their job, did it convincingly:

• Autumn Glow, George Ryder, $1.28. Won by a margin that made the market look conservative, even if the Queen Elizabeth went the other way three weeks later.
• Aeliana, Ranvet $1.60 and Tancred $1.70. Back-to-back G1s. Punters who rolled the Ranvet into the Tancred multiplied their stake by 2.72x clean.
• Sheza Alibi, Doncaster Mile $1.90. The Randwick Guineas winner on March 7 came back on April 4 and won the Doncaster. The Peter Moody and Katherine Coleman mare was the form mile horse of the carnival.
• Tempted, Arrowfield 3YO Sprint $1.60. Ciaron Maher and Chad Schofield made a $1 million race look like a schooling session.