The two-horse race narrative around Scripted and Clear Thinking is understandable on paper, but this is the Country Championships Wild Card. Form can be thrown out the window. The soft track will test everyone. And there is a horse in this field at massive odds who I think is being completely overlooked.

The Market Is Wrong About This Race

Scripted opens the day as the $2.40 favourite, with Tommy Berry hopping on for Matthew Dunn. Berry is Berry, and Dunn is one of the most consistent country trainers in the business. Scripted draws barrier 6, gets a midfield run in transit, and sits perfectly for the moderate pace this race will likely produce. The model rates Scripted well and the jockey booking screams confidence. Hard to knock.

Clear Thinking at $3.10 is the other obvious contender. Paul Messara and Leah Gavranich have this horse in flying form, barrier 10 gives options, and Ashley Morgan is an underrated booking on a horse the model rates as the top-rated in the field. In a drier, faster run race this would be the one to beat.

But here is the thing: this is a Soft track, and Soft tracks at Scone in late March can be unforgiving. The pace scenario is moderate, with Tavros and Great Point expected to lead. That moderate tempo with five on-pace runners means closers are going to get their chance, and the back half of this field is full of runners who want a genuine tempo to run into.

Why Unreachable is the Play at $31

Unreachable, trained by Jeremy Sylvester and ridden by Shannen Llewellyn, draws barrier 9 and maps to close from the back half although I think she’s been starting off her races too well and should be in the first half of the field. At $31, she is dismissed by the market entirely. But here is what is interesting: Sylvester targets this race deliberately, the barrier is workable in a big field, and a horse who closes from off the pace on a soft track with a moderate tempo in front of her has every ingredient she needs.

The Country Championships Wild Card has a history of throwing up a roughie. The format of the race, the soft underfoot conditions, and the pressure of the Randwick final in three weeks tends to mean some of the short-priced market leaders are not at their very peak. At $31, Unreachable does not have to win all that often to be the right play.

Shannen Llewellyn is a young but capable rider who knows how to position a horse in a big field. She will need Unreachable to travel sweetly and find clear running in the straight, but on a soft track with a moderate pace and closers getting home, the race sets up for her.

The Country Championships Wild Card: Some Context

The Country Championships is one of the great concepts in Australian racing. Launched by Racing NSW in 2015, it gives provincial and country horses a genuine pathway to a Saturday metropolitan feature. The Wild Card races are essentially last-chance qualifiers, held a fortnight before the Final, and they attract horses who have missed the boat through the earlier qualifier rounds but still have a genuine case to get to Randwick.

Scone is a fitting host. The Upper Hunter is one of Australia's great horse-breeding and training regions, home to Arrowfield, Coolmore, and Darley among others. The town has a deep connection to the thoroughbred industry, and the Country Championships Wild Card at Scone draws on that local pride and produces genuine competition.

The $150,000 prize pool is real money at country level. The winner picks up the lion's share and punches their ticket to Randwick. For horses and trainers based in the Northern districts, this race is everything.

Pride To Follow, trained by Brett and Georgie Cavanough, is an interesting inclusion at $12. The Cavanoughs also saddle up Warrior For Peace in the same race, which is worth noting. They clearly have confidence in at least one of them. Lunaite at $7 with Kerrin McEvoy aboard is the other horse worth including in any multi, given McEvoy does not make the trek north for nothing.