The carnival closes where it started
Six weeks of Sydney autumn racing come down to ten races at Randwick on Saturday. Two Group 1s, four Group 3s, and a card that asks whether the dominant themes of this carnival hold for one more day. Chris Waller and James McDonald have nine G1 wins between them this autumn. I think they'll add at least one more before the sun goes down.
Race 9: Schweppes All Aged Stakes (G1, $1.5M, 1400m WFA)
The headline race and the most open G1 of the carnival. Three horses at $4.50-$4.60 at the top of the market tells you the bookmakers can't separate them either.
Jimmysstar has the Ciaron Maher polish. He's drawn wide in barrier 12 but Ethan Brown will ride him quiet from there and let the speed sort itself out. Fourth-up, the distance is right, the form is there.
Angel Capital gives Waller and McDonald their most likely All Aged contender. Barrier 4 is ideal. The horse has been placed at G1 level this preparation and McDonald will have him rolling forward from a soft draw.
But the one I keep coming back to is Giga Kick. This horse won The Everest at $21. Ran second to Joliestar in the TJ Smith two weeks ago, beaten by a champion and nothing else. Fourth-up, stepping to 1400m, which should suit. Rachel King rides from barrier 7. At $7 I think the market is too dismissive of a horse with over $12 million in career earnings and genuine G1 sprint credentials. I'd be surprised if he doesn't hit the frame.
Beiwacht and Fangirl are two more Waller runners. With five in the field, Waller will have this race surrounded.
Race 7: Champagne Stakes (G1, $1M, 1600m)
Campione D'italia is the clear favourite and I'm not convinced you need to look past him. Won the Inglis Sires at $4.20 two weeks ago under McDonald, firmed straight into this. Waller is attempting the Sires-Champagne double (Militarize did it three years ago). Barrier 4, the right rider, a horse that's still improving. That's a hard combination to oppose at 1600m against two-year-olds.
If he's beatable, Miss Chanel is the one. Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott have placed her well and Regan Bayliss has been in strong carnival form. Fireball is another Waller runner with Tim Clark aboard.
The roughie worth noting: Grinzinger Heart. Won the Sires Produce at Flemington at $41 on March 7. Interstate form is often underpriced in Sydney and this filly has already proven she can win at stakes level when overlooked.
Race 4: James HB Carr Stakes (G3, $250K, 1400m)
Plaintiff is the standout favourite of the day. Jordan Childs rides for Peter Snowden. Won the PJ Bell at G3 level on Day 1 of The Championships and steps up to 1400m which should suit. The price is short but the form is right.
Race 8: Hall Mark Stakes (G3, $250K, 1200m)
A Joseph Pride quadrella. He has four runners: Jokers Grin (last year's Quokka winner), Private Eye, Mazu, and King's Secret. But Waller's Jokers Grin is actually trained by Waller. I'd lean toward Private Eye at each-way odds. Nash Rawiller from barrier 9 gives him every chance to get a soft run.
Race 5: Frank Packer Plate (G3, $250K, 2000m)
Matias looks well placed for Gerald Ryan and Sterling Alexiou with Rawiller aboard. Olympian with Craig Williams is the improver. Both will want to control the pace and the battle for the lead will determine the race.
Race 6: JRA Plate (G3, $250K, 2000m)
Travolta for Waller and McDonald gets my vote. Genuine each-way play is Bear On The Loose, a Waterhouse and Bott runner with Bayliss up. Wide draw (barrier 8) is the concern but the horse has talent.
The carnival in closing
This is the day that puts a full stop on six weeks of autumn racing in Sydney. If Campione D'italia wins the Champagne, Waller and McDonald will have swept every major juvenile race this preparation. If Giga Kick salutes in the All Aged at $7, it'll be the value result of the closing day. And if both favourites get rolled, it'll be a fitting reminder that this carnival has never been short on surprises.
I think the two G1s tell you all you need to know about Saturday: back the proven form in the Champagne, look for value in the All Aged. The carnival closes where it started. At Randwick, under lights that matter.
