The pace maps across today's card are telling a consistent story: single-leader fields where a host of closers are all going to be scrapping for the same piece of ground turning for home. That creates a real opportunity for on-pace runners who can box-seat without a fight, and I think the market has been too slow to pick up on it in a couple of spots. There are five races I want to talk about today, and I have a clear opinion in each of them.
Cool Summer Nights Vulnerable as Favourite
The speed map here is about as straightforward as they come. Kadani is the only horse in the race likely to go forward and attempt to lead, and with a big field of closers all settling well off the pace, this race is going to be run at whatever tempo Kadani dictates. If she rolls along at a crawl, the field is going to bunch behind her and the finish line is going to come down to who gets the best run at the top of the straight.
That scenario concerns me for the favourite. Cool Summer Nights maps as a closer from barrier twelve, which is a wide draw in a race with limited early speed. Her best form has come on good ground; she ran second at Taree and third at Newcastle on good going, and her one run on soft was a well-beaten fifth at Coffs Harbour. She is a filly I think the market has overestimated based on her connections more than her actual form record, and I would not be surprised at all if she found one or two too good here.
The horse I keep landing on is Chistota. He is consistent and he has form that reads better than his odds suggest. He ran second at Coffs Harbour on heavy ground, beaten just over half a length behind Headstream, who has since won again at the same track. He also ran second at Taree on good ground behind a horse who beat him fair and square. That form is solid for this grade and the Ciaron Maher yard rarely sends one this far north without a genuine reason.
Bobbiwaa is interesting at his price; he was beaten by a whisker at Taree last start in a race that has the look of good form for this level. I am not going to be aggressively backing anything in a maiden this open, but I think the favourite is way too short for a horse with her limitations on soft ground, and Chistota is the clear play for mine.
Steely Girl the Play; Headstream Has Questions to Answer as Co-Favourite
Mosgiel Daisy is the lone leader here from barrier seven, and she will set her own tempo in a field that has multiple closers but very little genuine speed to pressure her. She has won at this distance on soft going and is capable of pinching this from the front. That is a legitimate threat to the closers, and it is something you need to factor into how you approach this race.
Despite that, Steely Girl is the horse I want to be on. She has an exceptional record at this track, winning here twice from two starts including over this exact distance. Her win at the 1509m was a proper effort against decent regional opposition, and her placing at Tuncurry in a Class 3 on soft gives her real credentials for today. Neil Godbolt trains her locally and has gotten her fit at Port Macquarie before. Her last run at Taree on soft was a disappointing seventh, but she was in a BM66 field against better opposition than she faces today. I think the class drop is significant and she deserves to be favourite.
Headstream is co-favourite and I have genuine reservations. She won her maiden at Coffs Harbour in a field of five on heavy ground, and she won a short-course race at the same track before that. She has never faced a BM58 handicap field and her record on soft going is blank. I am not saying she cannot handle it, but I think the market is giving her too much credit on the back of wins that came in very small fields on very heavy going. Oppose her and stick with the proven Port Macquarie performer.
Villandry Solid; Boom Crusher the Underrated Runner at Rockhampton
Saddles will roll forward from barrier seven and with very little natural pace in the rest of the field, this shapes as a race that will suit on-pace runners. Villandry maps to sit just off the speed with cover from a good barrier and that is exactly the position you want in a race like this.
The favourite has solid credentials here. Villandry won a BM55 at Thangool on good going and ran an excellent second in a Class 1 at Rockhampton on soft, beaten less than a length by Storm Force Ten, who has since bolted in at this very track. That is really solid collateral form and I can understand why the market has him at the top. He maps ideally and Krystle Johnston has him racing consistently.
The horse I think the market has undervalued is Boom Crusher. He has one win from twenty-nine starts but eleven placings, which tells you he consistently turns up in the finish. His record at this track and distance is genuinely eye-catching, with multiple placings, and his wet-ground record is strong. Last start he ran fourth in a Class 1, which is a harder race than this, and before that he ran second in a 0-55 at Rockhampton on soft. I think he has drifted further than his record warrants and he maps to be hitting the line late.
Our Heart Throb is the one I want to oppose. He has placed consistently over the years but his win rate tells you what you need to know, and at his current market position I think the crowd has overreacted to his recent win at this track and distance. He is capable but overrated at his price. Villandry is my selection with Boom Crusher as the each-way interest.
Wonboyn Overbacked; Aradeo the Logical Each-Way Play
This is a big open field and the tempo should be moderate with Angel Stella Belle and Set Me Free sharing the lead through the early stages. That sets up a reasonably fair race for horses able to travel behind the speed, though with most of the big field mapping to come from well off the pace, the sprint for the line is going to be competitive.
Wonboyn is being backed as if that one second at Kilmore told you everything you needed to know about him. He was beaten less than half a length by Man Of The Sea on soft ground, which is one run. That is it. He is now going around as a short favourite in a field of sixteen runners in a 1500m maiden where he maps as a backmarker. I think the market has gone too far and I am more interested in horses with at least two runs in the form lines.
Aradeo is the horse I want to be on. Two runs on soft ground, two placings; she ran second at Ararat beaten less than half a length and third at Sale on soft. Both runs were honest and progressive efforts and the Ben, Will & Jd Hayes team have a record of placing well-bred maidens in the right spots. At her current price she represents exactly the kind of value that Wonboyn's price does not.
Share The Stars is the other horse worth including; she ran second at Kilmore on good going and has placed over 1400m and on synthetic ground. She is drawn wide from barrier fifteen which is a concern but she has the ability to overcome it. I am against Wonboyn at his price and I am with Aradeo as my selection.
Crystanado the Form Horse in the Feature; Justdoit the Fascinating Pace Factor
The speed map here is what makes this race genuinely interesting. Justdoit is the only horse likely to lead from barrier fifteen, which means she faces the challenge of beginning from an awkward draw and getting to the front through a field that will be eager to find a position. If she manages it, she will control the tempo from the front and that is a very powerful position to be in when the pace is slow.
Crystanado is the horse I keep landing on as the form play. He ran second at Geelong last start, beaten less than half a length in a 0-56 over 1312m, and has placed at this track three times from three attempts. Two wins from twenty career starts and a wet-ground record that genuinely holds up. His most recent performances at Moe and Sale showed him finishing well back, but those were at a higher grade and this drop in class looks significant. He is my selection.
Now, I will not dismiss Justdoit simply because of the draw. She has won four times from thirty-one career starts and several of those wins have come in exactly this kind of race. The trainer Luke Oliver and Billy Egan combination is very hard to argue with in this grade. If she leads from the front and sets a crawl of a tempo, she is a legitimate winning chance and I think the market has her about right as a well-held runner.
Gin O'Clock has drifted significantly in the market and I think that drift is completely justified. Five consecutive fifth-place finishes in recent starts, top weighted in the field, and his form on soft ground at this distance is a blank. He might be a genuine improver second-up after a spell, but I am not going to chase him at any price today.
Paint Me Red comes in as an emergency and has won at similar distances on good ground recently, but his soft-track record is the question mark. If he gets a start and the market firms for him, that would change my view slightly. For now, Crystanado is my clear selection in this race and I think the punter who ignores Justdoit as the pace factor does so at their peril if the leader goes on to pinch it.
