Carlando won over 850m last start and arrives favourite here, but I'm not convinced the step to 950m on a Soft track is the formality the market suggests. Scott Cooper has added a lugging bit for the first time, which tells me they're addressing something, and while Nathan Thomas is a strong booking, this gelding has never raced beyond 850m. That's a red flag in what looks a genuinely competitive juvenile maiden.

Booming Belief is the more compelling proposition. She ran third over this exact track and distance three months ago, beaten 8.65 lengths, but that was off a spell into a race won by a subsequent city placegetter. Roy Chillemi brings her back fresh, Michael Murphy takes the ride, and she draws barrier one. The Spirit of Boom filly has already shown she can handle 950m, and with natural improvement from that first-up run, she's the one I want on my side.

Smart 'N' Loud ran second to Carlando last start, beaten 4.29 lengths, and gets Krysten Swaffer's 3kg claim. That's not insignificant in a two-year-old race, and if the favourite doesn't handle the step up, this Exosphere gelding is perfectly placed to pick up the pieces. Sixty Nine Grange also ran in that Mackay race, finishing fourth, and returns here at short odds despite being winless. I'm not interested.

Carlando might win, but the price is wrong. Booming Belief is the value play with the right credentials for the job.

Eight likely leaders in a 950m Benchmark 68 means this will be run at a furious tempo, and those who settle off the speed will have every chance. Zi Win draws barrier one with Lacey Morrison, returns fresh after 130 days, and boasts five wins from 24 starts at this exact distance. That's a 21% strike rate over 950m, and while he hasn't won at Cairns in 11 attempts, he's placed nine times here. The gelding is a model of consistency.

Last campaign, Zi Win ran third at Gordonvale over 1100m, beaten just 0.27 lengths, then backed it up with another third at Innisfail over 1200m. He was fifth here at Cairns in his final run, beaten 2.3 lengths in a Benchmark 70. Trevor & Peter Rowe have removed the nasal strip and added front bandages, and I interpret that as fine-tuning rather than concern. Morrison from the inside gate is a significant advantage when the pace is guaranteed to be hot.

Devine Force is the favourite coming off a narrow third here last start, beaten 0.66 lengths over 950m. Fred Wieland and Sean Cormack are a potent combination, and this Cosmic Force mare has won two from 14. But she's never won on Soft ground, and that's a statistical hole I can't ignore when Zi Win has two Soft wins from 16 attempts.

Time To Prophet ran second at Townsville last start, beaten 0.41 lengths in a Benchmark 72, and drops back to 68 grade here. That's a class drop with strong recent form, and Georgie Holt knows how to place a horse. But the wide draw and confirmed speed bias make this a tougher assignment than it looks on paper.

Singular is first-up and has won fresh before, but his Soft record is patchy and the pace will be against him. Arctic Bear ran fourth here last start and is another who'll need to navigate the early burn. I'm leaning firmly toward Zi Win, with Devine Force the main danger if the Soft track doesn't blunt her.

Maidens over 1250m on Soft ground are often won by the horse who's been knocking on the door the longest, and She's Got Lyrics fits that profile perfectly. The Jade Doolan-trained mare has run second, seventh, sixth, fifth and fourth in her last five starts, with that most recent second at Townsville over 1200m the standout effort. She was beaten 1.79 lengths by a horse who'd been placed in five of his previous six starts, and the form around that race is solid.

She's Got Lyrics has raced 22 times for six placings and two minor placings, which tells me she's honest and consistent but perhaps lacks a killer finish. Over 1250m on a Soft track with no genuine speed in the race, that consistency becomes a weapon. Nathan Thomas takes the ride, and while he's not the most fashionable name on the card, he knows his way around Cairns.

Essay Wine is the short-priced favourite after running third here last start over this distance, beaten 0.7 lengths in Heavy going. Fred Wieland and Sean Cormack are in red-hot form, and this Press Statement filly clearly handles the wet. But she's only had two starts, and I'm wary of backing a horse with such limited race experience at short odds when there are seasoned maidens in the field.

Middle Child ran second here last start in Heavy ground, beaten 2.2 lengths, and has been placed four times from 15 starts. The Dissident mare is another who's been close without winning, and Ryan Wiggins is a strong booking. But her record suggests she's a professional placegetter rather than a winner, and I'm not interested in backing her at short odds.

Stellar Legend ran second at Townsville last start over 1400m, beaten just 0.46 lengths, and drops back to 1250m here. That's a query, and while the blinkers stay on, I'm not convinced he's the answer. Radio Waves has been well beaten in recent starts and looks outclassed.

She's Got Lyrics is the value play in a race where experience and consistency will count for more than raw talent.

Eight likely leaders over 1400m means we'll see a genuine staying test, and The Honey Badger is perfectly placed to capitalise. The Scott Cooper-trained gelding won over this track and distance back in June, beating a field of eight by 1.56 lengths on Soft ground. He's had one run since, finishing sixth at Townsville over 1300m, and returns here fresh after 37 days.

The Honey Badger has a Cairns record of four starts for one win and two placings, which is a 75% top-three strike rate at this venue. Over 1400m, he's won once from two attempts, and the addition of a tongue control bit and lugging bit suggests Cooper is fine-tuning the gear rather than making wholesale changes. Nathan Thomas knows this horse well, and barrier three in a race with plenty of speed is ideal positioning.

Vouchers is the favourite after running second at Townsville last start, beaten 1.77 lengths in a Benchmark 55 over this distance. He won here two starts back over 1400m in Heavy ground, and clearly handles the wet. But he's drawn barrier six in a race with eight confirmed leaders, and I'm not sure Sean Cormack will want to be part of that early battle. If he settles back, he'll need a strong finish, and I'm not convinced he has the closing speed to run down horses from the back.

Looming One ran fourth at Townsville last start over 1400m, beaten 4.12 lengths, and has a Cairns record of four starts for one win and three placings. That's impressive local form, and the gelding is clearly effective here. But he's drawn barrier four and will be part of the speed battle, which could compromise his chances late.

Mississippi Dream steps up from maiden grade after winning at Mackay over 1300m, and this is a significant class rise. Michael Murphy is a strong booking, but I'm not convinced this mare is ready for Benchmark 55 company just yet.

The Honey Badger is the horse with the right form, the right draw, and the right track record. I'm backing him to dictate terms and prove too strong late.

Lord Power has run 35 times at Cairns for two wins and 14 placings, which is a 46% top-three strike rate at this venue. Over 950m here, he's never won from 24 attempts, but he's placed five times. Last start, he ran second over this track and distance, beaten 0.46 lengths in Heavy ground, and that form line is rock solid. Krysten Swaffer takes the ride and claims 3kg, which brings him down to 58kg, and barrier two is perfect positioning.

The speed map shows only Cullivel as a confirmed leader, which means the tempo will be slow and those on the pace will have every advantage. Lord Power typically settles on or near the speed, and in a race with limited pressure, he can dictate terms and prove too strong late. Trevor & Peter Rowe have kept the blinkers on, and I see no reason to deviate from what's been working.

Threebrothers is the short-priced favourite after running third at Townsville last start, beaten 2.77 lengths over 1000m. He's a model of consistency with a Cairns record of nine starts for one win and two placings, and over 950m he's won three from 24 attempts. But he's drawn barrier nine in a race with limited speed, and I'm not sure he'll get the run of the race from that draw.

Chargin' ran third at Home Hill last start over 1000m, beaten 0.88 lengths, and steps back to 950m here. Lacey Morrison takes the ride from barrier one, which is a huge advantage, and this Charge Forward gelding has won once from 11 starts. But his Soft record is patchy, and I'm not convinced he's the answer at this level.

Cullivel is the likely leader and ran fourth here last start, beaten 2.29 lengths over 950m. The mare has won at this track over this distance, and Ivo Fry will look to control the tempo from the front. But her Soft record is concerning, and I think she'll be vulnerable late if the race is run to suit.

Lord Power is the value play with the right form, the right draw, and the right jockey. I'm backing him to finally break through over this distance.

Ten likely leaders over 950m is a recipe for chaos, and Super Twenty Three is perfectly placed to take advantage from a trailing position. The gelding has run 15 times at Cairns for two wins and five placings, which is a 47% top-three strike rate at this venue. Over 950m here, he's won once from 10 attempts, and last start he ran third over this track and distance, beaten 1.96 lengths in Heavy ground.

Ryan Wiggins sticks with the ride after that solid effort, and barrier three in a race with guaranteed speed is ideal. Super Twenty Three typically settles midfield and relies on a strong finish, and with ten horses likely to engage in an early speed battle, he'll have every opportunity to pick them off late. Stephen Massingham has kept the blinkers on, and I see no reason to change a winning formula.

Coppabella Road is the short-priced favourite after running fifth here last start, beaten 2.71 lengths over 950m. He ran second at Townsville two starts back over 1000m, beaten 2.53 lengths, and clearly has ability. But he's drawn barrier nine in a race with ten confirmed leaders, and I'm not sure Aidan Holt will want to be part of that early battle. If he settles back, he'll need a strong finish, and I'm not convinced he has the closing speed to run down Super Twenty Three.

Shere Khan won here last start over 950m in Heavy ground and is another short-priced favourite. Scott Cooper and Nathan Thomas are in good form, and this Jungle Cat gelding clearly handles the wet. But he's drawn barrier two and will be part of the speed battle, which could compromise his chances late.

Brave Eddy returns from a 319-day spell and ran sixth at Townsville last start over 1200m. That's a query, and while the blinkers go on, I'm not convinced he's ready to win fresh after such a long break.

Super Twenty Three is the value play with the right form, the right draw, and the right racing style for a race with guaranteed speed. I'm backing him to prove too strong late.

Valenki has won eight times from 37 starts, including two wins at Cairns from eight attempts. Over 950m, he's won once from two starts, and his most recent effort was a narrow second at Cairns over 1250m, beaten 1.45 lengths on Good ground. That was 151 days ago, and Roy Chillemi brings him back fresh for this Open Handicap.

The gelding's record on Soft ground is strong, with three wins from 16 attempts, and his class edge is evident in his recent form. He won at Atherton and Townsville in his two starts prior to that Cairns second, and both victories were authoritative. Michael Murphy takes the ride, and while the 60kg impost is significant, this is a horse who's proven he can carry weight and win.

Impardoo is the favourite after winning at Ingham last start over 1400m on Good ground. He's won four times at Cairns from 16 starts, which is a 25% strike rate at this venue, and over 950m he's won once from 10 attempts. Bodine Bailey and Lacey Morrison are a potent combination, and the 0.5kg claim brings him down to 54kg. That's a huge weight advantage over Valenki, and I can't ignore it.

Gossip Torque ran second at Townsville last start over 850m, beaten 0.65 lengths, and steps up to 950m here. The mare has won seven times from 40 starts, and over 950m she's won four from 25 attempts. That's a 16% strike rate at this distance, and Chelsea Jokic's 0.5kg claim is a bonus. But she's drawn barrier one in a race with limited speed, and I'm not sure she'll get the run of the race from that draw.

Armour Force returns from a 201-day spell and ran fifth at Cairns last start over 2100m. That's a query, and while the blinkers stay on, I'm not convinced he's ready to win fresh after such a long break.

Valenki is the class horse in this field, and while the weight is a concern, I'm backing him to prove too strong for this level of opposition.

Yamabushi carries 62kg here, but his recent form justifies the impost. The gelding ran second at Cairns last start over 1250m, beaten 1.43 lengths in Heavy ground, and that was against Benchmark 75 company. He's dropping back to Benchmark 65 here, which is a significant class drop, and over 1250m he's won twice from five starts. That's a 40% strike rate at this distance.

Lauren Guernier's 2kg claim brings him down to 60kg, which is more manageable, and barrier five in a race with limited speed is ideal. Fred Wieland has this gelding racing in career-best form, with three consecutive placings prior to last start, and I'm expecting him to take full advantage of the class drop.

Desert Grit won here last start over 1250m in Heavy ground, beating a field of eight by 1.43 lengths. That was a Benchmark 75, and he's dropping back to 65 grade here. Trevor & Peter Rowe and Krysten Swaffer are in good form, and this Kobayashi gelding clearly handles the wet. But he's drawn barrier seven in a race with limited speed, and I'm not sure he'll get the same run of the race that he enjoyed last start.

Materialist ran second at Townsville last start over 1000m, beaten 0.29 lengths in Class 3 company. She's stepping up to Benchmark 65 here, which is a significant class rise, and over 1250m she's won once from 11 starts. Chelsea Jokic is a strong booking, but I'm not convinced this mare is ready for this level of opposition.

Rhegion is the favourite after winning at Townsville last start over 1400m, beating a field of 15 by 1.77 lengths. He's had 12 starts for two wins, and over 1250m he's placed twice from four attempts. But he's drawn barrier eight in a race with limited speed, and I'm not sure Ryan Wiggins will get the run of the race from that draw.

Yamabushi is the value play with the right form, the right class drop, and the right distance credentials. I'm backing him to prove too strong late despite carrying the top weight.