Matias is $2.90 favourite for the G3 Frank Packer Plate at Randwick on Saturday. Fifteen runners. 2000 metres. And I reckon there's a reason this horse is unders.

His last start was brilliant. Third in the Carbine Club, beaten 0.11 lengths, closing hard into the line at $6.50. That's the form line the market is pricing. But his start before that? Eighth in the Phar Lap at Rosehill. Beaten 4.56 lengths. Sent out at $31.

Two runs, two completely different horses. That is the kind of inconsistency that makes $2.90 a dangerous price.

Matias has never raced past 1600 metres. The Frank Packer is run over 2000m. For a three-year-old colt in the last week of a long carnival, that is a serious step up. His Carbine Club run was over 1600m and he was strong late, which suggests the distance might suit. But suggesting and proving are different things when $2.90 is on the line.

Nash Rawiller rides from barrier 2 and that is the biggest positive. Rawiller is one of the best riders in the country at getting horses to relax in the run and Matias will need to switch off early if he is going to sustain a run over the extra 400 metres. But even Rawiller cannot guarantee a horse will handle 2000m when it has never tried it.

Olympian ($4.80) has Craig Williams aboard and Williams has ridden 2000m races in Sydney his entire career. Barrier 8 is workable. If Matias is one-paced late, Olympian is the horse who runs over the top of him.

Providence ($7.50) with James McDonald for Chris Waller is drawn wide in 10 but McDonald will find a way to get him into the race. Waller has three runners in this (Providence, Pictor, Monopolistic) and if one of them fires, the favourite is in trouble.