Here's the problem, plain and simple. Just Cruisin' is a closer. Barrier two, very fast early speed, but the form says it settles midfield and closes. That's all well and good when there's a genuine tempo on, but bloody hell, look at this race makeup.

There's no speed. Zero leaders identified in the pace map. This is going to be a crawl, and when you're a closer in a slow-run race, you're asking the horse to sprint from the 400 and sustain it. That's not how Just Cruisin' wins races.

The recent form doesn't fill me with confidence either. Two runs back, beaten three lengths by Steparty at this track over 1600. Before that, beaten nearly two lengths by the same horse at Hobart. Sure, it won at Longford, but that was an 800-metre dash with four runners. Not exactly strong form for a horse being sent out at prohibitive odds.

Kelvin Hamilton has got this one fit enough, fifteen days between runs is ideal, but fitness doesn't solve a speed map problem. When there's no pressure early, the leaders get an armchair ride and the closers are left with too much work to do. Navarre River from barrier five could pinch this if it leads, and at predicted odds around the threes, that's value compared to this shorty.

I'm not saying Just Cruisin' can't win. I'm saying at those odds, in this race shape, it's vulnerable as anything. You'd be kicking dead backing odds-on in a slow-run 1400 when you need a strong tempo to be effective.