Punters, this is all about class, and Trebilco has got it in spades. The Michael, John & Wayne Hawkes gelding has run second in his last two starts, beaten six lengths at Ballarat by Enamorada who's since won again, then a length at Bendigo in the Heavy. That Ballarat run is the key. He got back and ran on strongly over 1200m, and the horse that beat him has come out and franked the form. Yes, he's been off for 174 days, but this stable knows how to place them fresh, and Jamie Melham taking the ride tells me plenty. The breeding suggests he'll handle the Good track, and from barrier seven he can settle midfield and finish over the top of them.

The market's got Chowdown short at around the threes, but I'm not convinced. Two runs back, both at Sale over longer trips, and he got beaten over four lengths in both. The 179-day break doesn't fill me with confidence either, especially when you're taking the cross-over nose band off first time. Charlotte Littlefield's done well with him in trials, but racing's different to jumpouts.

Privateer is the other market fancy for Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr, and look, she's run some honest races. That second at Seymour over 1200m was solid, beaten three-quarters of a length, but she's had 21 days between runs and the tongue tie goes on first time here. The blinkers stay on, which suggests they're still searching for the key. I reckon she's a place chance at best.

Handsome Missile ran third here 14 days ago over 1100m, beaten less than four lengths, and he's a chance if the pace is genuine. But with limited speed on paper, I'm not sure he gets the run of the race. Little Richo debuted okay at this track over 1000m, beaten two lengths in a Maiden, but he needs to step up sharply here.

I'm backing Trebilco to break through. The form's rock solid, the stable's elite, and the 1200m suits perfectly. If he doesn't win, I'll be asking serious questions, but I reckon he's the goods.

This is another race where the stable doing the placing matters, and Cabaret Queen ticks every box for me. Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr have given her 188 days since she ran second on debut at Mornington over this trip, beaten 4.75 lengths but doing her best work late. The trials since have been outstanding. She's won and placed in four jumpouts at Cranbourne, including a second in her latest behind a smart one. The tongue tie goes on first time, which tells me they've found something, and Beau Mertens is a terrific young rider who knows how to get them home fresh.

The danger is Bel Lupa, who won a Caulfield Heath jumpout 15 days ago and comes off two seconds in her last two starts. Greg Eurell has her racing well, and the form around her second at Benalla reads okay. But she's had three runs this prep without winning, and I wonder if she's just an honest type who finds one too good.

Miss Ellaneous is the most experienced runner here with six starts, two seconds, and she's been racing in decent company. That fifth at Kyneton last start behind Millennium Blade wasn't disgraced, but she's had 17 days between runs and hasn't won from six attempts. Henry Dwyer knows what he's doing, but I think she's looking for further now.

Beau Strada has three thirds from five starts and ran well fresh at Seymour, beaten less than two lengths over 1422m. She's a chance if she runs up to that, but the 84-day break and the claim apprentice Bailey Kinninmont might be a slight query.

Immortal Truth is a smoky for the Hayes stable. She ran second at Bairnsdale over this trip, beaten a length and a quarter, but that was 138 days ago. The winkers come off and ear muffs go on, which is a significant gear change. I'd rather watch her first-up.

I'm with Cabaret Queen here. The stable's got her ready to fire fresh, the trials are spot-on, and the breeding suggests she'll run the 1000m out strongly. She's my top pick in this race.

Punters, when a horse runs five top-five finishes from seven starts and keeps knocking on the door, eventually the door opens. Pull My Finger is that horse, and I reckon today's the day. Amy & Ash Yargi have placed him perfectly, he's drawn to get the right run from barrier four, and Daniel Stackhouse is one of the best judges of pace in Victoria. Last start he ran third at Yarra Valley over 1009m, beaten less than two lengths, and the start before that he was third at Kyneton over 1103m, beaten half a length. That's serious form for a maiden.

The pace map suggests moderate tempo with Pull My Finger and Sexy Warrior likely to lead or sit close. That suits him perfectly because he's shown he can sustain a run when allowed to roll along in front. The 1000m is right in his comfort zone with four starts at the trip for two seconds and a third.

Sexy Warrior won a Caulfield Heath jumpout 15 days ago and comes here first-up after one run last prep where she ran sixth at this track over 1200m. Phillip Stokes is a quality operator, but she's only had one race start and is being thrown in the deep end here. The speed map has her leading, which could be dangerous if she goes too hard early.

Spirit Of Gaia is the other short-priced runner at around the threes. She's run nine times for two seconds and a third, and last start she was beaten less than a length at Caulfield Heath over 1000m. Nikki Burke has her racing consistently, but she's been second twice this prep and I'm not convinced she's got that winning edge. The blinkers stay on, which means they haven't found the magic formula yet.

On My Own has had eight starts for a third, and last start he was beaten nearly 13 lengths at Cranbourne. The gear changes with the lugging bit on and winkers off might help, but that's a big form turnaround to find.

Last Piece is a 19-start maiden who's never won. That tells you everything. Mystical Gem is first-up after 293 days and trialled okay, but I need to see more.

I'm all over Pull My Finger. The form's there, the rider's there, and the trip's perfect. This gelding is ready to break his maiden, and I'm backing him accordingly.

Bloody hell, look at this form. Cavalry comes here from the Hawkes stable with metro form that towers over this lot, and I reckon he's going to steamroll them. Last start he ran third at Seymour over 1600m, beaten just over half a length in a Maiden on Soft ground. The start before that he ran fifth at Bendigo over 1400m in the Heavy, beaten five lengths, but he'd won a Canterbury Class 1 in between those runs back in Sydney. That's city form, punters, and when you bring that to Pakenham you're entitled to start short.

The query is the 182-day break. That's a long spell, and he's coming back to 1400m after racing at 1600m last start. But Jamie Melham knows him well, and this stable doesn't bring them back unless they're ready. The pace map shows 11 likely leaders, which is chaos, and that should set it up perfectly for a horse with tactical speed who can position midfield and finish hard.

Ask Your Mother is the value runner here for Greg Eurell. He's drawn the inside gate with Lachlan Neindorf, and his last start third at Sale over 1206m reads well. He was beaten two lengths in a small field, and before that he was running in much longer races. The drop back to 1400m looks ideal, and he's got one second and a third from seven starts, so he's capable. The track record here is a blank, but he's shown enough versatility to handle it.

Titan's Spirit is the other main contender. He ran second at Kyneton last start over 1479m, beaten a nose, and that's as close as you get without winning. Nikki Burke has him racing well with a third the start before that at this track over 1600m. The drop to 1400m might be a slight query, but he's consistent and the blinkers stay on. I just think he's one-paced and will struggle to run down the classier types.

Parera is resuming after 90 days and has run eight times for two seconds and a third. The winkers come off first time, which is interesting, and he's got solid form at the trip with one second and a third from three attempts. But he's been gelded since we last saw him, and I need to see how he comes back.

The rest look like they're making up the numbers. Popeye has had three starts for no wins, Sacre Bleu ran seventh last start beaten two and a half lengths, and Written Story has been disappointing in her last two runs.

I'm backing Cavalry to bring the city class and get the job done. The form's superior, the stable's elite, and the chaotic pace should suit perfectly. He's the one to beat.

Punters, when a horse has won three times at a track and four times at a distance, you don't overthink it. The Negotiator is a Pakenham specialist, and he's back here over his pet 1400m trip after winning here 28 days ago. Cliff Brown knows exactly how to place this gelding, and the fact he's won four times at 1400m tells me this is his optimum trip. Last start he bolted in at this track over this distance in a Benchmark 66, and before that he'd run fourth twice and third once. The blinkers stay on, he's got Jackson Radley claiming 2kg, and he's drawn barrier four which gives him options.

The danger is Rasp, who's resuming after 147 days. He's had 14 starts for one win, two seconds, and three thirds, and his last run was a shocker at Warrnambool where he finished 14th beaten 51 lengths. But before that he ran second beaten half a length over 1700m at Warrnambool, and two starts back he won at Benalla over 1612m by three and a quarter lengths. That's solid form, and if he's come back right he's a serious player. The blinkers go back on, which worked when he won, and Jamie Mott is a quality rider.

Stay Silent is racing well for Ciaron Maher with a fifth last start at this track over 1400m, beaten just over a length. Before that he won at Sale over 1400m, and he's clearly in form. The 21-day break is ideal, and Thomas Stockdale can ride. I just think he's a level below The Negotiator at this track.

Sabertooth is the only other runner I'm giving serious thought to. He won on debut at Seymour over 1300m 20 days ago and is stepping up to Benchmark 62 class. The Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young stable is flying, and this gelding obviously has ability. But going from a maiden to a Benchmark 62 is a significant step, and I'd rather watch him tackle this grade once before backing him.

Sabi Storm is resuming after 159 days and brings metro form, but he's had 18 months between runs effectively and I need to see him first-up. Akicita won two starts back at Seymour over 1100m but was beaten over three lengths last start at the same track. The drop to 1400m might not suit.

I'm with The Negotiator all day here. He's a course specialist, he's in form, and he loves this trip. The claiming apprentice helps with the weight, and I reckon he's going to be too strong for them again. This is his track, this is his distance, and I'm backing him accordingly.

I tell you what, when a horse has won once and run second once from five starts at a track, and she's won twice from six starts at the distance, you take notice. Honey Maker ticks those boxes, and her last start second at Sale over 1427m in the Heavy was rock solid. She was beaten three-quarters of a length by Diamond Gust, and before that she'd run seventh at Sale over 1415m but had won at Tatura over 1450m two starts back. Shawn Mathrick has placed her perfectly here, she's back at her favourite track, and Luke Currie is a serious jockey booking.

The market's got Simply Outrageous as the favourite, and fair enough. She won last start at Ballarat over 1400m in a Benchmark 56, and Tony & Calvin McEvoy are elite trainers. But she's stepping up from a BM56 to a BM62, and that's not nothing. The 26-day break is ideal, and Harry Coffey can ride, but I just think the class rise might find her out.

Stung is the most interesting runner here. She's a Ben, Will & Jd Hayes filly dropping back from a Group 2 at Moonee Valley where she ran fifth beaten less than four lengths behind Salty Pearl. Before that she won a Kilmore Maiden over 1460m by a length and a half, and she's clearly got ability. The 138-day spell is a query, but this stable knows how to place them fresh. The big drop in class from Group 2 to Benchmark 62 is significant, and if she's come back right she's a massive player. Jackson Radley claiming 2kg helps.

Baywatch won on debut at Sale over 1400m by two and a quarter lengths, then backed up and ran sixth at this track over 1200m. She's resuming after 137 days, and Michael Kent has her ready. The claiming 3kg apprentice Bailey Kinninmont is a slight query, but the class is there.

Chocolate Box ran third last start at Seymour beaten just over a length, and before that she was third at this track over 1200m. The winkers go on first time, which suggests Wendy Kelly is trying something new. She's a chance if the gear change works.

Here The Crowd won at this track two starts back and has solid form, but the 22-day break and no jockey listed is a concern. Belcony is resuming after 161 days with the winkers coming off, and I'd rather watch her fresh.

I'm torn between Honey Maker and Stung here. The track specialist versus the class horse. But I'm going to side with Honey Maker because she knows this track, she's in form, and the distance is perfect. Stung is the danger if she's come back right, but I'm backing the form and the course record.

Punters, this is a case of class dropping back from the city, and Perfect Picture has got it in spades. Grahame Begg has given her 128 days since she ran ninth at Flemington in a Group 3, and before that she was running in metro Benchmark 66 races with a second at Sandown Hillside beaten a length and a half, and a fifth at Seymour beaten just over a length. That's serious form, and when you bring that back to a Class 1 at Pakenham, you're entitled to start favourite.

The kicker is her Pakenham record. She's won once and run second once from two starts here, both with Jordan Childs in the saddle. That's a 100% strike rate for placing at this track, and the partnership clearly works. She's resuming, which is a query, but this stable knows how to place them fresh and the trials will have her ready.

Undisputable is the danger for Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr. He won two starts back at Ballarat Synthetic over 1100m by 4.75 lengths, which is a dominant win, and before that he ran second at Pakenham Synthetic over 1100m. The 190-day spell is a concern, but this stable is elite and they don't bring them back unless they're ready. The blinkers stay on, which worked last time, and Beau Mertens is riding well.

Bajaria is resuming after 134 days and ran third last start at Bendigo over 1300m beaten two and a half lengths in a Benchmark 64. Before that she won at Sale over 1112m in a Maiden, and she's clearly got ability. The pacifiers go on, which is interesting, and Jye McNeil is a top-class rider. The drop back to 1100m might be a query.

Yamashita's Gold ran fourth last start at this track over 1000m beaten less than a length, and before that he was fourth at Sale over 1006m. The winkers go back on after the blinkers came off, which suggests Gavin Bedggood is still searching for the right combination. He's a chance but needs things to go his way.

Bruiser Murphy won on debut at Moe over 1000m 18 days ago and is stepping up to Class 1. That's a big jump from a maiden, and while he's talented, I need to see him tackle this grade first. Barari ran sixth last start at this track over 1000m, and the blinkers coming off and winkers going back on suggests gear changes that might help.

I'm backing Perfect Picture to bring the metro class and get the job done. The form's superior, the track record is perfect, and the stable knows how to place them fresh. She's my top pick in this race.