I tell you what, Flower Fairy is one of the most overbet horses I've seen on a Thursday card in a long time. Maddison Collins's filly arrives here with zero wins from two career starts, she ran second at Wagga last start and ran eighth at Geelong before that. Two starts, no wins. And the market's priced her up as though she's a dual Group 1 winner rolling over maidens for fun.

The model has her at five times her market price. That's not a gap, punters, that's a canyon. The second favourite Wild Romeo is sitting at a predicted price that perfectly matches the market, that's where the real confidence is. But somehow everyone's piled onto the mare that has never actually won a race in her life.

Here's what bothers me most about Flower Fairy: all her prior form is from Melbourne, Geelong, Mornington, Cranbourne, and she's stepping down to a country showcase with different opposition. She's not been to Albury before. She's a backmarker in a slow tempo race where there are no leaders, which means the pace is going to be untidy and there will be scrimmaging. Getting back and around in a maiden at a track you've never visited on a soft track? You'd be kicking dead backing this horse at these odds, folks.

Wild Romeo looks the real thing at a much fairer price. And Haz Styles is the model's top-rated horse in this race, trained locally, knows the track, soft-track performer. The value is clearly elsewhere. Flower Fairy can finish placed all she likes, but she's asking you to take massive risk for minimal reward. The lay is obvious. Fire up, punters.