Drumfire has two career starts. He has never raced at Caulfield, never tried 1200m, and never faced Listed company. Punters have priced him favourite anyway.

His form reads '12', a win and a second. Solid, but against weaker fields over shorter trips. The Redoute's Choice Stakes puts him against horses who have run this track and distance before, some of them multiple times at stakes level.

Mark Zahra rides. Barrier speed is rated moderate, so Zahra will need to use the colt early to find a forward position. His closing speed sits midfield in this group. At Caulfield, where the straight gives backmarkers a long look at the leader, midfield closing speed and an unfamiliar track is a bad combination.

Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott have placed him here for a reason, and the talent might be real. But the price asks you to trust projection over evidence. Horses in this field have already done what Drumfire is being asked to do for the first time.

Oppose.