Observer has never raced beyond 2000m. Punters have him favourite for a 2400m Derby on soft ground where his only wet-track run produced a third. A couple of proven stayers sitting at double-figure odds tell a different story.
Kindergarten Stakes
Bangkok Hottie, Blue Door and Low Key all want to lead. Three horses rolling forward creates a burn-up that drags the sting out of on-speed runners and hands the race to anyone settling off the pace.
Under Focus won last start at Kensington, beating several of these. He then ran second to The Next Episode at Warwick Farm, beaten 0.91 lengths, and that horse backed it up with a maiden win on soft ground.
The Next Episode has attracted money but his form is thin. A maiden win where the third horse Belvante trailed by 4.94 lengths tells you the race lacked depth. Steel Will, beaten 1.63 lengths in second, hasn't done much since.
Incognito finished 12th at Rosehill, 5.51 lengths behind Guest House. A Group 1 class drop sounds good on paper, but from barrier seven settling last, he needs too many things to go right.
Under Focus, off the hot pace, in a field he's already beaten is the one for me.
Country Championships
Chidiac is favourite off a Muswellbrook win. Four starts at Randwick: no wins, one placing, one third. That venue record is a problem when you're asked to justify short odds at the same track.
Considered has won four straight including a Class 3 at Rosehill over 18 runners. Four wins from four at 1400m. He's the form horse, and the price reflects it.
Vermicella won the Sapphire Coast qualifier by 2.86 lengths from Canadian Ruler. He maps to settle with cover just off Show 'em Howl and Poisen Point, who should set a moderate tempo. Four wins from eight on soft. At this price against a favourite with a poor venue record, he's the bet.
TJ Smith Stakes
Limited early speed means this race could be walked. If the pace collapses, tactical speed decides it, and the closers are stranded.
Giga Kick has four wins from eight on soft with an 88% place rate. He beat Joliestar by 0.2 lengths at Flemington three starts back. Joliestar has won twice since, including a dominant Randwick performance last start. That's elite form.
Jimmysstar beat Mazu by 2.67 lengths here in soft ground two starts back. Mazu then ran third at Rosehill behind Marhoona, beaten 0.21 lengths. Solid, but the price doesn't leave room for error.
Tentyris ran fifth at Flemington, beaten 1.52 lengths by Caballus. First-time ear muffs raise a question rather than answer one.
Joliestar maps to sit with cover and has enough speed to capitalise if the leaders crawl. Two wins at this track and distance, including a length over Caballus (a subsequent Flemington winner). She's the danger.
Doncaster Handicap
Sheza Alibi has won her last two but neither came at Randwick, and she's never won here. She beat Autumn Boy by 3.2 lengths two starts back, and Autumn Boy won a 2000m race last start, which props up the form. Still, a favourite who can't win at the venue creates an opening.
Gringotts: six wins from nine on soft, 100% place rate on the surface. He was beaten 2.79 lengths by Autumn Glow last start at 1500m, but the step back to a mile suits his pattern. Yorkshire, who beat him at this track in December, went on to win at Group 2 level.
Encap looks the only leader. A slow tempo from the front lets Gringotts settle from his wide draw and produce his late run when it matters. On soft ground, nobody in this field finishes harder.
Evaporate ran second to Tom Kitten at Flemington two starts back, beaten 0.35 lengths, and third to Jimmysstar at Caulfield. He handles good company. The drop to 54.5kg sharpens his claims.
Autumn Boy won over 2000m last start but may want further than a mile now. His second to Sheza Alibi was solid, but this trip might catch him short.
Australian Derby
Observer won the Victoria Derby at Flemington on good ground over 2500m. Different surface, different state, different test. His soft-track record is one run for a third. Punters are pricing the Victoria Derby form as if it transfers to a rain-affected Randwick. It might not.
Storm Leopard won a 2000m race at Rosehill seven days ago on soft ground. He's fit, he's proven on the surface, and his sire Ghaiyyath gives him every reason to handle 2400m. The price says punters haven't noticed.
Road To Paris and Victorious Spirit should ensure a genuine tempo up front. Road To Paris won over 2400m at Ellerslie last start, beating 16 runners by 0.9 lengths. One start at the trip, one win. He's a factor if the pace is honest.
Green Spaces has been backed for the placings but ran sixth behind Sheza Alibi two starts back, beaten 6.57 lengths, and second to Autumn Boy last start with 1.94 lengths still separating them. Nothing in that form demands respect at this level.
Are You Kidding has won his last two, including a 2100m win at Beaumont as a $1.55 favourite. Two wins from four on soft. He's sitting at massive odds in a race where the favourite has a distance question hanging over him. Each-way, he's the value bet on the card.
Race 1 — Under Focus
Race 5 — Vermicella
Race 7 — Joliestar
Race 8 — Gringotts
Race 9 — Are You Kidding
