Six likely leaders in a 1000m sprint on a soft track? This is going to be carnage up front, and I think that sets it up beautifully for anything with tactical speed that can sit just off them. The pace map suggests Odessa, Frostnip, Headbanger, Doubtland Diva, Shinjina, and Titahi Bay will all be vying for positions early, and someone is going to get cooked.

Headbanger is the clear form horse for me. Two starts at this track for a win and a third, and the Sandown second to Trapper John two back has been franked by that horse running well since. Grahame Begg has her going the right way, and Jordan Childs stays aboard after that Sandown run. The concern is the 12-day backup and whether she can handle being part of that early speed war, but at 60kg with no claim, she's getting in light. I think she's the one to beat.

Frostnip is the predicted favourite according to the data, and I can see the appeal. She ran second here at Cranbourne two starts back, beaten only a nose by Blethyn, and before that she was a narrow second at Geelong behind Jewel Bandit. The problem is the Pakenham seventh and the Caulfield ninth, both of which suggest she's not quite at this level consistently. The blinkers come off for the first time here, which is a gear change I'm not entirely sold on when you're trying to be competitive in a hot speed battle.

Odessa won at Ballarat last start over 900m on soft ground, which is a tick, but that was no class restriction and the form doesn't look particularly strong. The third at Ballarat behind Interest Point before that is better form, but she was 5.75 lengths off the winner at $1.65, which tells you she was expected to do better. The claim from Jackson Radley helps, but I'm not convinced this is good enough.

Shinjina has been placed in three of her last four, including a second to Wintery at Pakenham two back. That horse has since won again, so the form is solid. But she's had 22 days between runs, and I'm not sure she's quick enough early to avoid getting caught wide in this speed battle. The claim helps her cause, but I think there are better options.

I'm happy to stick with Headbanger as the best chance. The track form is too good to ignore, and if she can navigate the early speed and find a spot, I think she's got the class edge. Frostnip is the danger if the blinkers-off move works, but I'm sceptical.

This is a maiden over 1400m with limited speed and a bunch of horses stepping up in distance. It's the kind of race where you can talk yourself into half the field and end up with nothing. I'll try to find some logic here, but I'm not excited about any of it.

Ottolenghi is the predicted favourite and she's run second in three of her four starts, including a narrow defeat at Pakenham last start over this trip. She was beaten 0.4 lengths by Seychelles, which isn't a bad effort, and before that she ran second at Seymour over 1200m on a heavy track. Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young have her placed well, but I'm not entirely convinced she's got the turn of foot to put them away when it counts. The lack of speed in this race could actually work against her if she's forced to do too much work.

Let It Beel has been placed in five of his seven starts and he's clearly consistent without being brilliant. The third at Sandown Hillside last start over 1300m was solid, beaten 1.15 lengths behind Sparkling Luck, and before that he ran third at Wangaratta over 1590m, beaten only 0.4 lengths. He's a stayer in the making, and this trip should suit him perfectly. The concern is he's never won, and at some point you have to question whether he's got that extra gear. Luke Cartwright takes the ride with a 2kg claim, which helps.

Pol Rogeur is the horse the data loves, and I can see why. He ran second at Werribee last start over this trip, beaten a length by It's Gnarly, and before that he was third here at Cranbourne over 1200m. The step up to 1400m looks ideal given his pedigree (by Highland Reel), and he's drawn perfectly in barrier three. David & Coral Feek have him going the right way, and I think he's the value play in a race where the favourite might be a bit short.

Kokonda is first-up after a 13-day break and ran second at Kyneton over 1479m in his only start, beaten 2 lengths. That's a solid enough effort, but I'm not sure the form is strong enough to suggest he's ready to win at this level. Cadillac Sam comes from the Chris Waller stable and ran fifth at Pakenham last start, beaten 1.65 lengths. He's shown nothing in three starts to suggest he's going to break through here.

I'll lean towards Pol Rogeur as the best value chance, with Let It Beel next best if you want to back consistency. But this is a race I'm happy to watch rather than bet.

This is another race with limited speed, which means it's going to be a tactical affair where the horse with the best turn of foot will likely prevail. Phineas is that horse, and I think he's a class above this field.

Phineas has won two of his four starts at this track and distance, which is a ridiculous record. Last start he won a BM66 over this trip at Cranbourne, and before that he ran third behind Itsukushima over the same course and distance. The form is rock solid, and Ben Melham takes the ride for Clinton McDonald, which is a significant booking. The concern is he's had 20 days between runs, but given his track record here, I'm not worried about that at all.

Standard Deviation won a maiden at Pakenham last start over 1400m, which is a solid effort, but he's stepping up in class here and I'm not convinced he's ready for BM66 grade. He's a Chris Waller horse, which means he's likely to improve, but I think this is too soon. The form in Ireland before coming to Australia was decent, with two narrow seconds, but that was in maiden company.

Overactive is the predicted favourite according to the data, and I'm baffled by that. He ran fourth at Sandown Hillside last start over 1300m, beaten 2.81 lengths, and before that he was ninth at Caulfield over 1700m. The form is patchy at best, and I can't see any reason to back him here. He's had 28 starts for two wins, which tells you everything you need to know about his consistency.

Late Harvest won at Cranbourne two starts back over 1500m in a Class 1, which is a tick for the track, but he was beaten 3.45 lengths at Caulfield Heath last start over 1500m. That's a significant drop in form, and I'm not sure he's going to bounce back here. Blakmax ran third here last start over this trip, beaten 0.66 lengths behind Curse It, which is solid form. He's a chance at longer odds if you're looking for value, but I think Phineas is too good.

O Cara Mia is first-up after 31 days and ran fifth at Caulfield Heath last start over 1800m. She's a mare who loves wet tracks, with a heavy track win on her resume, and this soft surface should suit her. But she's dropping back in distance, and I'm not sure she's got the tactical speed to be competitive here.

I'm confident Phineas wins this. The track and distance record is too strong, and I think he's a class above this field. If you want to take him on, Blakmax is the value play at longer odds.

Trial By Press is perfectly drawn in barrier one, has a perfect distance record (one start, one win), and comes off a solid third at Sandown Hillside over 1400m last start. This is the horse to beat, and I think she's going to be hard to run down from the inside gate.

The form from that Sandown run is strong. She was beaten 2.1 lengths by Terilee, who is a progressive mare, and before that she ran third at Cranbourne over 1200m behind Written Bligh. The step up to 1300m looks ideal, and Greg Eurell has placed her perfectly here. Holly Durnan takes the ride with a 3kg claim, which brings her down to 58kg. That's a significant weight advantage in a race like this.

Brutalina is the predicted favourite and she's had blinkers applied for the first time, which is an interesting gear change. She ran fourth at Sandown Hillside last start over 1400m, beaten 3.35 lengths behind Terilee, which is the same race Trial By Press ran in. She was beaten further, which doesn't bode well. Before that, she was fifth at Pakenham over 1200m, so the form is patchy. The blinkers might sharpen her up, but I'm not convinced she's good enough to beat Trial By Press.

Here The Crowd has been placed in five of her 16 starts and ran fifth at Caulfield Heath last start over 1200m. She's stepping up to 1300m, which should suit, but I'm not sure she's got the class to beat the top two. Luke Cartwright takes the ride with a 2kg claim, which helps, but I think she's a place chance at best.

A Diva is first-up after 139 days and won at Sale two starts back over 1744m. She's clearly a mare who goes well fresh, but this is a significant drop in distance, and I'm not sure she's got the tactical speed to be competitive over 1300m. The form from that Moonee Valley run last start is terrible, beaten 14.65 lengths, which suggests she was either not fit or not interested. I'm happy to swerve her.

Thunder Hawk ran second here at Cranbourne last start over 1200m, beaten 0.35 lengths by Markdel, which is solid form. She's stepping up to 1300m, which should suit, and she's got a good record at this track. Jordan Childs takes the ride, which is a positive, but I think she's going to struggle to beat Trial By Press from barrier eight.

I'm confident Trial By Press wins this. The draw is perfect, the form is solid, and the claim from Holly Durnan gives her a significant weight advantage. Brutalina is the danger if the blinkers work, but I'm not convinced.

Everyone wants to believe Unflinching can roll back the years after 167 days off, and I'll admit his record over this distance is remarkable. Seven wins from 17 starts at 955m, including a trial win at Cranbourne just before this, suggests he's a genuine specialist. But I'm not buying the narrative that the spell is a positive here. He's a seven-year-old who hasn't raced since August, and the pace map suggests there's virtually no speed in this race, which is a disaster for a horse who needs something to run at.

Philosopher is the predicted favourite and he won here at Cranbourne last start over 1000m, which is a tick. Before that, he ran fourth over this distance at Cranbourne, beaten 0.86 lengths behind Port Albert, who is also in this race. The form is solid, and Emily Pozman takes the ride with a 3kg claim. The concern is his soft track record, which reads zero wins from four starts. That's a significant red flag on this surface.

Port Albert won over this distance at Cranbourne two starts back, which is strong form. He's had 34 days between runs, which is on the fresh side, and he's drawn barrier five, which isn't ideal in a race with no pace. But his soft track record is excellent, with two wins from 10 starts, and I think he's a genuine chance at longer odds.

Shirshov ran third here at Cranbourne last start over this distance, beaten 0.45 lengths behind Gentle Steel, which is solid form. He's a horse who loves wet tracks, with two wins from nine starts on soft ground, and I think he's going to be competitive here. The concern is his consistency, with only six wins from 30 starts, but at the price he's worth considering.

Katsu has a remarkable distance record, with five wins from 14 starts at 955m, but his form is patchy. He ran sixth at Cranbourne last start over 1000m, beaten 5.31 lengths behind Philosopher, which is a long way off the winner. Before that, he won at Caulfield Heath over 800m, but that was a three-horse race, which tells you nothing. I'm not interested.

Cannyworth is a three-year-old with two wins from four starts at this distance, which is a solid record. He ran fourth here at Cranbourne last start, beaten 1.95 lengths behind Gentle Steel, which is respectable. But he's stepping up significantly in grade here, and I'm not sure he's ready for this level yet.

I'm going to take a stand and say Philosopher is overrated on this surface, and I think Port Albert is the value play at longer odds. His soft track record is too good to ignore, and I think he's got the class to win this. Shirshov is the next best if you want to spread your bets, but I'm not touching Unflinching at the price.

This is a fascinating race with 14 likely leaders according to the pace map, which means it's going to be an absolute war up front. In races like this, you want the horse with the best closing sectionals and the class edge, and that horse is The Western Front.

The Western Front won here at Cranbourne last start over this distance, which is a massive tick. He's drawn barrier one with Craig Williams aboard, which is a dream scenario in a race with this much pace. The form is rock solid, and I think he's a class above this field. The concern is his soft track record, with only one win from two starts, but given the way this race is going to be run, I think he's going to get the perfect run from the inside.

Grey Ice is the predicted favourite and he won here at Cranbourne last start over this distance, which is also strong form. He's got a solid wet track record, with one win from four starts on soft ground, and I think he's going to be competitive. But he's drawn barrier nine, which is a disaster in a race with this much pace. He's going to get caught wide, and I'm not sure he's got the class to overcome that.

Time Allowed ran second here at Cranbourne last start over 1600m, beaten 0.75 lengths behind Astral Flame, which is solid form. He's stepping up to 2025m for the first time, which is a query, but his pedigree (by Lope de Vega) suggests he'll handle it. The concern is he's got no soft track form, with zero wins from zero starts on soft ground. That's a red flag I can't ignore.

Powerful Torque ran third here at Cranbourne over this distance two starts back, beaten 0.7 lengths behind The Western Front, which is the same horse he's facing again. He's since won at Cranbourne over 2060m, which is a tick, but I think he's going to struggle to turn the tables on The Western Front from a worse draw.

Bergasun won here at Cranbourne last start over this distance, which is strong form, but he's stepping up significantly in grade. He won a BM66 last start, and this is a much harder race. I think he's going to struggle to be competitive against horses like The Western Front and Grey Ice.

I'm confident The Western Front wins this. The draw is perfect, the form is solid, and Craig Williams is the best jockey in the country. Grey Ice is the danger if he can overcome the wide draw, but I think the inside barrier is going to be the difference here.

Duchess Zou is the predicted favourite after a 236-day spell, and I think that's an absurd price given she's had zero racing in eight months. Yes, she won impressively at Flemington last start over 1400m, but that was back in April, and we have no idea what sort of condition she's in now. I'm not interested in backing a horse coming off that long a break in a race of this quality.

Laa De Sha won here at Cranbourne last start over this distance, which is a massive tick. He's got a solid track record here, with two wins from two starts, and Jackson Radley takes the ride with a 3kg claim. The form is strong, and I think he's the horse to beat. The concern is his soft track record, with zero wins from six starts, but given his track form here, I'm willing to overlook that.

Celsius Star ran third here at Cranbourne last start over this distance, beaten 1.35 lengths behind Miss Icelandic, which is solid form. Before that, he ran third over this distance at Cranbourne again, beaten 2 lengths behind Laa De Sha. He's clearly competitive at this level, and I think he's a chance at longer odds. The concern is his age (seven years old) and whether he's got the turn of foot to beat younger horses like Laa De Sha.

Ka Ying Cheer has won two of his last two starts, including a win at Seymour over 1100m last start. The form is strong, and he's clearly in good order. But he's stepping up significantly in grade here, and I'm not sure he's ready for this level yet. He's a chance if the race falls apart, but I think the top two are too good.

Fluent won at Cranbourne over this distance two starts back, which is a tick, but she's had 34 days between runs and is first-up here. That's a concern in a race of this quality. Mytemptation is first-up after 61 days and ran sixth at Flemington last start over this distance. The form is patchy, and I'm not convinced he's going to be competitive here.

I'm backing Laa De Sha to win this. The track form is too good to ignore, and I think he's got the class edge over this field. Celsius Star is the value play at longer odds if you want to take on the favourite, but I'm not touching Duchess Zou at the price after that spell.