What do you do when the favourites actually look the right price? That's the question I'm asking myself looking at this Kembla card on a Soft surface. There's genuine quality scattered through the day, particularly in the feature races, but I'm not seeing the usual collection of vulnerable market leaders. Some of these short-priced runners have form that stacks up properly, and if you're trying to beat them just for the sake of it, you're probably making a mistake.
My Proclama Should Go Close Despite Patchy Record
My Proclama is a short-priced favourite with a 0-2-3 record from five starts, which tells you everything about the depth of this maiden. But I think she's the right horse. She ran third at this track last start, beaten 3.3 lengths by Zing To Me, but that was after a trial win at Warwick Farm and she's shown enough at 1200m to suggest she can handle this. The concern is she's been thereabouts without winning, but Joseph Pride knows how to place one and the removal of the ear muffs might sharpen her up.
Bedda Mia has run second twice at this track from two starts, including a 2.3-length second to Fairway To Heaven here two weeks ago. That form looks solid enough, beaten the same margin as Xtra Assertive who also runs here, and she's a genuine chance with the claim. Four starts at 1200m for a third and a placing suggests she'll run the trip, but I'm not convinced she's got the tactical speed to overcome the wide draw.
Space Cadet ran second on debut at Nowra, beaten six lengths by Waverley Road, which doesn't inspire confidence until you realise she was first-up and it was only her second career start. The Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou stable can have them ready fresh and she maps to get a soft run from the outside gate. At longer odds than the market suggests, she's interesting.
Cheeky Sort won an 800m maiden here before running third at Wyong over 1100m, beaten three lengths. That form is moderate and I'd be surprised if she's good enough at this trip. Wonderstorm has been competitive without threatening and her form simply isn't good enough for this grade.
I think My Proclama wins this, but it's not a race that excites me. The favourite should go close despite the uninspiring record.
Pour Benn Finally Gets His Chance
Pour Benn has run second and third at this track over this distance in soft conditions, which is exactly what he gets here. Last start he ran third at Newcastle over 1600m, beaten 3.45 lengths, but before that he was only 0.8 lengths off Baja Baby here over 1500m. That's solid form for this grade and the blinkers go back on after being removed for one run. I think he's the right favourite.
Neferusobek ran second here over this trip two weeks ago, beaten a nose by El Qasabi. That's a narrow margin and she gets another chance, but I'm not sure the form is strong enough. She's been placed once from three starts at this track and the consistency is there, but winning seems to be a problem.
Purple Haze ran second at Port Macquarie over 1500m, beaten 0.06 lengths, which is as close as you can get without winning. He's been competitive at every start without breaking through, with three fourths and a second from his last four. The problem is he's had enough chances and I'd be surprised if this is the day he finally gets it done.
Nothing Finer has run third twice from four starts and showed something with a 2.3-length third at this track last time. The blinkers stay on and Joseph Pride has him placed right, but I'm not convinced the form is anywhere near good enough when you dig into the detail.
Autumn Surf gets blinkers for the first time which is a gear change worth noting, but his form is patchy at best. I'm happy to stick with Pour Benn as the one they all have to beat.
Ol' Mate Coop Maps Perfectly From The Rail
Ol' Mate Coop brings regional form to Kembla and I think it's good enough. He's run three seconds and four thirds from ten starts, which shows consistency, and last start he was only 1.74 lengths off Gaelic Gem at Sapphire Coast. Before that he ran sixth at this track over 1000m, but the two starts prior were both seconds at Coffs Harbour. The form is solid, he draws the rail, and with the Equicast going on for the first time, there's a gear change that might sharpen him up. I think he's the one to beat.
Setta Icon ran second at Sapphire Coast last start, beaten half a length by Gaelic Gem, which means he ran within 1.2 lengths of Ol' Mate Coop on the same day. That's competitive form and he's first-up every time with a second and a seventh from two fresh runs. The concern is he's shown he can get close without winning, but Anthony Mountney has him placed right.
Zougotme ran second at Hawkesbury over 1300m last start, beaten half a length by Cosmic Avenger, and before that he ran sixth at this track over the same trip. The winkers come off and a nose roll goes on, which is an interesting gear change. He's shown enough to be competitive but I'm not convinced he's got the class to beat these.
C'mon Flyer ran third at this track over 1200m fresh, which is solid form, but he's only had one start and the step to 1400m is a query. Rubilace has been placed twice from fifteen starts and her form is moderate at best. Cabbucio ran third at Nowra last start but I'd be genuinely shocked if she's good enough for this.
She Can Salsa won at Warwick Farm over 1207m and ran third at Hawkesbury last start, beaten half a length. That's competitive form but I think Ol' Mate Coop has the edge with the barrier and the consistency.
Tip Top Timing Is The Kembla Specialist
Tip Top Timing has three wins from fourteen starts at this track and eight wins from fifty starts at 1600m. That's a specialist if I've ever seen one. He's won his last two here over this trip, including a 68-rated race, and last start he ran third at Warwick Farm over 1206m, beaten 0.28 lengths. That's sharp form and he drops back to his pet track and distance. I think he's the clear horse to beat despite being pushed out in the market.
Sneaky Choice won at this track over 1500m last start and ran third here over 1400m the start before, beaten 1.1 lengths. She's a Kembla specialist with a win and a third from three starts here, and Tommy Berry takes the ride. The form is solid but I'm not sure she's got the tactical speed to overcome the step to 1600m first-up at this grade.
Valiant Bomb won at Gosford over 1600m last start, which is solid form, and he's got two placings at this track from three starts. The concern is he's rated 58 and this is a 64, so he's stepping up in grade. I think he's a chance but I'd be surprised if he's good enough to beat Tip Top Timing at level weights.
Cosmic Lad ran sixth here over this trip last start, beaten 3.8 lengths, which is moderate form. He's got a win at this track but his recent form doesn't suggest he's ready to fire fresh. Grey Secret has won three from thirteen but his last start fifth at Newcastle doesn't inspire confidence.
Rule Of Faith ran second at Goulburn last start, beaten 0.79 lengths, which is competitive form, but I'm not convinced it's good enough for this grade. Sablonneuse won at Sapphire Coast last start but gets blinkers for the first time, which suggests there's a problem. I'm sticking with Tip Top Timing as the value play.
Goofinator Brings Recent Warwick Form
Goofinator won at Warwick Farm over 2110m last start and won at Canterbury over 1900m the start before. That's back-to-back wins and he's rated 66, which puts him right in this. The concern is he's stepping up to 2400m, but he's run a second at this trip before and Pat Murphy knows how to place a stayer. I think he's the one they all have to beat.
Dolce Dior ran second to Goofinator at Warwick Farm last start, beaten 0.43 lengths, which means she's right in this with the weight swing. She's won three from fourteen and handles the distance, but I'm not convinced she's got the tactical speed to turn the form around. The Peter Snowden stable is strong but I think Goofinator has her measure.
Doradus ran second at Warwick Farm over 2140m last start, beaten 2.44 lengths behind Stylebender, which is solid form. He's placed three times from eighteen starts and handles the distance, but I'm not sure he's got the class to beat these. De Louviere ran third behind Goofinator last start, beaten 0.62 lengths, which puts him right in the mix with the weight swing.
Sweet Bubbles ran third at Canterbury last start, beaten 1.18 lengths, and has a second at this track over this trip. The form is solid and she's a chance, but I think Goofinator is the class horse. Dezignation ran second here over this trip and won at Nowra over 2200m, which is competitive form, but I'd be surprised if he's good enough to beat the top two.
Think I Do ran second at Canterbury last start but I'm not convinced the form is strong enough. Twisted Love won at Newcastle but ran ninth at Warwick Farm last time, which is a concern. I'm happy to stick with Goofinator as the value play in what looks a competitive staying race.
Bunker Hut Is The Class Horse Here
Bunker Hut ran third at Randwick last start in an 88-rated race, beaten 0.31 lengths by Movin Out, which is sharp form. Before that he won at Doomben over 1200m and he's got a win and two seconds from four starts at this track. The form is solid, he's rated 91 which makes him the class horse, and Tommy Berry takes the ride from barrier two. I think he's the right favourite and I'd be surprised if anything beats him.
Monte Kate has won her last two at Canterbury over 1250m, both in benchmark races, and she's got three wins from six starts at this track. The form is strong but she's stepping up to a 94-rated race from a 78, which is a significant jump. The claim helps but I'm not convinced she's got the class to beat Bunker Hut at level weights.
Charcoals has won seven from fourteen and ran fifth at Randwick last start, beaten 2.8 lengths. The form is competitive but I'm not sure it's good enough for this grade. He's won four from six at 1200m which is a strong record, but the step up in grade is a concern.
Well Timed gets blinkers for the first time which is a gear change worth noting, but his last start twelfth at Randwick was poor. He's won five from twenty-four but I'm not convinced the form is anywhere near good enough. Lulumon ran sixth at Rosehill last start but has a solid record at this track with two placings from four starts.
Cavalier Charles is fresh and has won three from ten fresh, but his form doesn't suggest he's ready to fire. Gravina has been competitive without threatening and I'd be genuinely shocked if he figured in the finish. I'm sticking with Bunker Hut as the one they all have to beat in what looks a straightforward feature race.
Spicy Lu Drops In Class With Victorian Form
Spicy Lu has won four from ten and ran fourth at Caulfield last start in a Group 2, beaten 2.75 lengths. Before that she won at Caulfield over 2000m and she's dropping back in class here. The form is strong, she handles 1600m with a win from three starts at the trip, and Nash Rawiller takes the ride. I think she's the class horse despite carrying 57kg.
Aisle Two has won her last two, including a benchmark 72 at Rosehill last start, and she's got two wins from five starts at this track. The form is solid but I'm not sure she's got the class to beat Spicy Lu at level weights. She's stepping up from a 72 to open company which is a significant jump.
Profoundly won at Warwick Farm last start in a 72-rated race and ran second in Queensland before that. The form is competitive but I think Spicy Lu has her measure with the class edge. Hush Hush won here over 1300m and ran fourth here over 1500m last start, which is solid form, but I'd be surprised if she's good enough for this grade.
Samarelle ran third at Rosehill last start and won at Randwick over 1050m before that. The winkers go on for the first time which is a gear change worth noting, but I'm not convinced she's got the tactical speed to handle 1600m. Long Legs won at Warwick Farm last start but that was only over 1206m and the step to 1600m is a query.
Soverato ran second at Rosehill last start and won at Canterbury before that, which is competitive form, but I think the class horses have her measure. Listen Sweetheart won at Wyong last start but I'm not convinced the form is strong enough. I'm sticking with Spicy Lu as the value play despite the short price.
Satness Knows This Track Better Than Anyone
Satness has six wins from thirty starts at this track and won here over 1400m last start in a 68-rated race. That's a track specialist if I've ever seen one. He's got two wins from twenty-one starts at this distance and the form is solid. The concern is he's carrying 64kg with the claim, but I think his track knowledge gives him the edge. I'm not convinced anything beats him here.
Duck For Cover won here over 1300m last start, which is solid form, but he's only had two starts and the step up to a 64-rated race is a significant jump. He's stepping up from a maiden to benchmark company which is a concern, and I'd be surprised if he's good enough to beat Satness at this track.
Savaii has won three from four and ran fifth at Goulburn last start, beaten 8.33 lengths, which is poor form. Before that he won at Canberra over 1300m, but I'm not sure the form is strong enough for this grade. The tongue tie goes on for the first time which suggests there's a problem.
Change My Address ran fifth at Randwick last start but her form is moderate at best. She's won once from eight starts and I'm not convinced she's got the class to beat these. Johnny ran fourth at Hawkesbury last start and has a win and two seconds from seven starts, which is competitive form, but I think Satness has him covered with the track advantage.
Extra Heights won at Canterbury over 1250m but that was in a maiden and the step up to a 64 is significant. Barbarossa won here last start but gets blinkers for the first time which suggests there's a problem. I'm sticking with Satness as the value play despite the weight. His track record speaks for itself and I'd be genuinely shocked if he doesn't run a big race here.
Where I Stand
The standout bet of the day is Bunker Hut in Race 6. His form at this track is solid with a win and two seconds from four starts, and the recent Doomben win shows he's in good order. Tommy Berry from barrier two gives him every chance and I think the class edge is significant. If you're trying to beat him you're just doing it for the sake of not wanting to back a favourite.
Tip Top Timing in Race 4 is the value play of the day. Three wins from fourteen starts at this track and eight wins from fifty at 1600m makes him a specialist, and his last two wins here over this trip show he's in the right form. He's being pushed out in the market but I think that's a mistake. The form is solid and he's the one they all have to beat.
Spicy Lu in Race 7 brings Victorian form to Kembla and I think the class edge is significant. She's dropping back from a Group 2 to open company and handles 1600m with a win from three starts at the trip. Nash Rawiller takes the ride and despite the 57kg, I think she's the class horse in what looks a competitive race.
Satness in Race 8 is the track specialist with six wins from thirty starts here. His last start win over this trip in a 68-rated race shows he's in good order, and despite the 64kg with the claim, I think his track knowledge gives him the edge. I'm not convinced anything beats him on his home track.
