This 900m maiden scamper is a proper lottery, punters. The market's got Plume short, but I'm not convinced. Two runs for the Hawkes stable, both at Kembla, and the form reads ordinary. Fifth beaten 4.4 lengths last start, fourth beaten 1.2 before that. The trial form suggests there's ability, but at short odds in a maiden over 900m on a Soft track? I'm not backing that with your money, let alone mine.

Bifurcation won at Wyong last start by a length in a Maiden on Soft ground. That's the form line that stands out. Nathan Doyle has her fit, Shannen Llewellyn takes 3kg off, and she's drawn barrier three. Only concern is the seven-day backup, but she's a three-year-old filly who's just broken through. The confidence will be sky-high.

Twoexcel from the Kris Lees stable is interesting. Won at Wyong over 845m last start, and they've taken the blinkers off for the first time. That's a gear change that suggests they think she's ready to relax and use her natural ability. William Stanley with the 2kg claim from barrier nine isn't ideal, but Lees doesn't bring them to town unless they're ready.

The Way Ahead has placed four times from nine starts and gets Dylan Gibbons on. The form is consistent without being spectacular, but barrier two is a massive advantage over this short trip. Rockbarton Marshal is the only debutant with trial form, but barrier nine makes it tough.

I reckon Bifurcation is the one to beat. Fresh off a maiden win, inside gate, and the claim makes her well-weighted. Twoexcel is the danger with the gear change, and I'm happy to watch Plume prove me wrong at short odds.

The 1600m maiden, and this is where class tells. Scoop The Pool is short in the market for a reason, punters. Second at Scone last start, beaten a length in a Maiden over 1400m on Soft ground. Before that, won at Canterbury over 899m. The step up to 1600m is the question mark, but this bloke's by Super Seth and has placed at the trip before. John O'shea and Tom Charlton have added blinkers for the first time, which tells me they want him to find the line stronger. Dylan Gibbons is a massive booking.

Stand My Ground is the danger. She's a Marc Chevalier filly who ran second at Warwick Farm over 1206m last start, beaten just over a length. The form before that includes a win at the same track. She's only had one run at Newcastle, fourth over 1500m, but that was back in her first preparation. Tyler Schiller rides, barrier 12 is wide, but she's shown she can run a strong 1600m.

Valentiago has been placed four times from nine starts for Peter Snowden. The gear changes are interesting: blinkers on for the first time, visors off. That's a significant switch. He ran fourth at Wyong over 1600m last start, beaten 1.6 lengths. The form's solid, but he's been thereabouts without winning too many times now.

Moordyup from the Joseph Pride stable ran second here at Newcastle over this exact distance last start, beaten half a length. They've added blinkers for the first time, which suggests they want her to be more aggressive. The track and distance form is a big tick.

Garrix has been placed at this track and distance before. Chris Waller runner who's been competitive without winning. Indigo Star is another Waller horse with four placings from 14 starts. Consistent without being brilliant.

I'm backing Scoop The Pool to get the job done. The form is strong, the blinkers go on, and Gibbons knows how to win these staying maidens. Stand My Ground is the logical danger despite the wide gate, and Moordyup can run a place with the blinkers on first time.

The 1300m maiden, and I'm looking at Better Bloom here, punters. Third at Newcastle over 1200m last start, beaten just over a length on a Good track. The form before that was fourth at Goulburn. She's third-up now, which is the perfect timing for a peak performance. Robert Quinn has her fit, Tyler Schiller is one of the best young riders going around, and the track form is a massive tick. Only concern is the 26-day gap, but that's freshened her up nicely.

Arctic Bright is the market favourite for John Sargent. She's had four runs for no wins, but the form includes three placings. Fourth at Canberra over 1300m last start, beaten three lengths. The blinkers are on, and Dylan Gibbons rides. The concern is she's been competitive without winning, and at short odds in a maiden, that's a worry.

Cheeky Sort won at Kembla over 800m first-up, then ran third at Wyong over 1100m last start. The step up to 1300m is a query, but the early form suggests there's talent. Joseph Ible also has Cabbucio in this, who ran third at Nowra over 1200m first-up. Both are chances.

Force March ran third at Wyong over 1200m last start in a field of 12. The form's okay, but he's drawn barrier two with William Stanley claiming 2kg. That's a serious advantage over 1300m. Zousari has been placed twice from six starts and gets Regan Bayliss. The form's patchy, but the class of the rider is a positive.

Etoiles drops back in class from a Class 1 to a maiden, which is interesting. He's had three runs for no wins, but the class drop could be the key. Propane and Crispy Leaves are both first-up and need to show more.

I'm going with Better Bloom on the basis of track form and third-up fitness. Arctic Bright is the obvious danger as favourite, but I'm not convinced she's got the ticker to win at this level. Cheeky Sort can run into the placings if the distance doesn't stretch her.

Now we're into the rated races, and this 900m Benchmark 64 is all about early speed and barrier position. Fierce is the favourite, and fair enough. Two wins from three starts, both first-up. Won at Wyong over 1000m in a Class 1 last start, then stepped up to a Benchmark 72 at Rosehill and ran fourth beaten two lengths. That's strong form. The Michael, John & Wayne Hawkes stable doesn't muck around, and Tyler Schiller is riding everything in sight. The concern is the step back to 900m and the class rise, but the form suggests he's up to it.

Pratt is the value play for me. Two wins and a placing from 10 starts, and here's the kicker: two starts at Newcastle over 900m for a win and a placing. The track and distance specialist. Last start he ran eighth at Wyong over 1200m, beaten 7.2 lengths, which reads terribly. But before that, he ran third at Port Macquarie in a Benchmark 74, then second at Port Mac in a Benchmark 66. The form's there when he's at the right distance. Barrier 11 is a nightmare, but William Stanley claims 2kg and Mark Minervini knows how to place a horse.

Zing To Me is up in class after winning a maiden at Kembla last start. The form before that includes five placings from eight starts. He's consistent, but stepping from maiden grade to Benchmark 64 is a big jump. Chad Schiller rides, and the class is there, but I need to see him do it at this level first.

She's Assort won two maidens in a row, then stepped up to Benchmark 64 at Wyong and ran eighth beaten 4.5 lengths. That form line tells you everything: she's not ready for this grade yet. Whil To Win has won two from four, including at this track and distance. The blinkers come off for the first time, which is interesting. John Thompson must think he's relaxed enough to race without them.

St Faith's is fresh off a 42-day break and won at Scone over 900m last start. The form's good, but first-up into Benchmark 64 is tough. Angara has had 38 starts for five wins and gets Reece Jones. He's a grinder who's won at this track before.

I'm torn between Fierce and Pratt. The favourite has the class edge, but Pratt has the track and distance form that you can't ignore. At longer odds, I'm leaning towards Pratt as the value play. Fierce is the class runner, but the wide draw and 900m sprint might just catch him out.

Bloody hell, look at this pace map. Eleven horses likely to lead or sit on the speed over 1400m. This is going to be a war up front, punters, and the horses coming from behind are going to have a field day. The tempo is going to be fast, and the ones that can settle and finish are the ones to be on.

Magical Moments is the favourite for Mitchell Beer and George Carpenter. Won at Kembla over 1400m in a Class 1 last start on a Good track. The form before that includes two placings and a win. He's won three times at the distance, and the form is rock solid. Tom Sherry rides from barrier four, which is perfect. The concern is he's listed as a leader in the pace map, so he's going to be caught up in that early speed battle.

Piccaderro won at Taree over 1400m in a Class 1 last start on Soft ground. Before that, second at Beaumont in a Benchmark 58, beaten a nose. The form's strong, and Jason Deamer has him flying. Ashley Morgan rides from barrier three, and he's also listed as a likely leader. That's two of the favourites going to be caught in the speed battle.

Duck For Cover is up in class after winning a maiden at Kembla over 1300m last start. The step up to Benchmark 64 is significant, but the form's there. Anthony Mountney has him fit second-up, and the pace map suggests he'll be leading or on the speed. That's three of the main chances going forward.

Killer Kerr is the value play for me. She's had 37 starts for four wins and five placings, and here's the key: three starts at Newcastle for two placings. The track form is strong. The distance form shows two placings from 13 starts at 1400m, so she's competitive at the trip. Last start she ran fifth at Kembla over 1200m, beaten 2.4 lengths. The form's solid, and with 11 horses likely to lead, she's going to get the perfect run from behind. Louise Day rides, and the weight of 55.5kg is manageable.

Bold And Blazen ran fifth at Kembla over 1200m last start and is listed as a likely leader. Keep At 'Em ran third here at Newcastle over 1300m last start, beaten 1.5 lengths. The track form is a tick, and he's another likely leader according to the pace map.

Benamera, Castelle, and Manwe all have some form but are at longer odds. The pace scenario is going to kill half this field.

I'm backing Killer Kerr to run over the top of them. The pace is going to be genuine, and she's got the track form to suggest Newcastle suits. Magical Moments is the class runner, but if he gets caught in that speed battle, he's vulnerable. Piccaderro is the other danger, but same issue: likely to be on the speed and might not finish it off.

The fillies and mares Benchmark 64 over 1200m, and I'm all over Manaajem here. Peter Snowden and Chad Schofield combination, and she ran third at Canterbury over 1250m last start in a Benchmark 64, beaten three lengths. The form before that was fourth at Rosehill in a trial, then seventh at Rosehill in another trial. She's had five starts for a win and a placing, and the class is obvious. The 27-day break has freshened her up, and dropping back from Canterbury to Newcastle is a class drop in my book. Barrier nine isn't ideal, but Schofield can overcome that.

Miss Capitale is the danger. Two wins from four starts for Matthew Smith, including a win at Beaumont over 1200m in a Class 2 on Soft ground. Last start she ran ninth at Randwick over 736m, which you can forgive because that's way too short for her. The form before that was eighth at Canterbury over 1100m in a Benchmark 72. She's better than that run suggests, and back to 1200m should suit. Ashley Morgan rides from barrier seven.

In Limbo ran second at Hawkesbury over 1300m last start in a Benchmark 64, beaten 0.34 lengths. That's strong form. Before that, she won at Wyong over 1200m in a maiden. Gerald Ryan and Sterling Alexiou have her flying, and Tom Sherry is a class rider. The step up in grade is the question mark, but the form suggests she's up to it.

Girijaala is interesting. She ran second at Randwick over 1050m last start in a trial, beaten 0.31 lengths. The Michael, John & Wayne Hawkes stable has her fit, and Tyler Schiller rides. The concern is she's had four starts for one win, and the form's been up and down. The class is there, but consistency isn't.

Firepop won at Nowra over 1200m in a maiden last start and is up in class. Princess Cruizer has had 34 starts for four wins and is a Newcastle specialist with 19 starts here. The form's been ordinary lately, though. Love Child won at Taree last start in a Class 3 and is up in grade.

Queen Bess and Interro are both longer odds and need to find improvement.

I'm backing Manaajem to show her class. The form's solid, the stable and jockey combination is top-notch, and the freshen-up should have her ready to fire. Miss Capitale is the logical danger, and In Limbo can run into the placings if she handles the grade rise.

This 1200m Benchmark 64 is a tough race to sort out, punters. The Extreme Cat is carrying 64kg from barrier 13, which is a nightmare scenario. But listen to this form: won at Kembla over 1400m in a Benchmark 68 on Heavy ground by three lengths. That's dominant. Before that, he ran eighth at Doomben in a Class 6, then 10th at Warwick Farm in a Benchmark 72. The Queensland form you can forgive, and the Heavy track win shows he's got class. Nathan Doyle has him fit, Shannen Llewellyn claims 3kg to bring the weight down to 61kg, and he's fresh off a 15-day break. The wide gate is the killer, but if he can overcome that, he's got the class to win this.

Shelstein is the logical favourite. Second at Hawkesbury over 1300m last start in a Benchmark 64, beaten 0.38 lengths. The form's consistent, with six placings from 17 starts. Annabel Archibald and Rob Archibald have him fit, and Chad Schofield is a massive booking. The blinkers are on, and barrier three is perfect. He's the safe option.

Call Me Gorgeous is the market favourite, and I'm not convinced. He ran eighth at Rosehill over 900m last start, which you can forgive because he's better over more ground. Before that, second at Canterbury over 902m in a trial. He's had 10 starts for one win and a placing, and the form's been in Hong Kong before coming back to Australia. David Pfieffer knows his horses, and Tyler Schiller rides, but I need to see more before backing him at short odds.

Solitario has had the blinkers removed for the first time, which is interesting. He ran 12th at Rosehill last start, which is terrible, but before that he won at Scone over 900m. The form's up and down. Better Late ran third at Wyong over 1100m last start and is honest without being brilliant.

Missile Magnate ran third at Wyong over 1000m last start in a Benchmark 64, beaten 1.89 lengths. The form's solid, and Annabel Archibald and Rob Archibald have him fit. Nation Changing won at Tamworth last start in a Class 2 and is up in grade. Rivkin has been placed nine times from 33 starts and is consistent.

Wanda River is back from a 173-day spell, which is a concern. Flying Argyle, Ollie's Secret, Island Legend, and Manwe are all at longer odds and need to find significant improvement.

I'm torn between The Extreme Cat and Shelstein. The top weight is brutal, but The Extreme Cat has the class to overcome it. Shelstein is the safer option with the better draw. If you're looking for value, The Extreme Cat at longer odds is worth a play. If you want the safe option, Shelstein is your horse.