The Midway Handicap is a reasonable starting point and I have a genuine view. Satness, trained by Robert & Luke Price and ridden by Adam Hyeronimus, has been placed at this level before and I think the market is significantly underestimating him. He won at Kembla last start and the horse he beat that day has performed well since. Soft ground suits him, and the form at 1400m reads well for a horse stepping to 1500m. I think the public has looked at the wider field and assumed one of the better-fancied horses will win, but the form says otherwise.

Northern Eyes is interesting at her price. She has placed twice at this distance and the form on soft ground is solid across twelve starts. She maps to get a handy run in transit and I would not dismiss her at the price.

Of the others, I am not overly interested in Titanium Miss or Bella Khadijah despite their market positions. The form does not warrant the degree of confidence the market has placed in them. Dusty Bay I am leaving alone entirely. The form is poor and this looks like a significant step up in grade.

My order: Satness, Northern Eyes, watch the rest.

This is the race I am most interested in on the early part of the card. Campaldino, trained by Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott, ridden by Tim Clark, has been in outstanding form. Seven wins from sixteen starts, four of those coming in a row. He won over 2000m at Randwick last start and has placed twice at this distance. The form at the trip is genuine and I think he is clearly the horse to beat.

The interesting runner to me is Travolta. He has been placed three times at the trip in recent months, including a third at Rosehill behind a horse that won his next start. He ran third at Canberra last start, beaten only a length and a half. Chris Waller does not bring horses to days like this without confidence and Tommy Berry is a serious engagement. I think the market has him a shade too long given the consistent placing record at the distance.

Juja Kibo is the favourite and I am genuinely not convinced. He has been placed at the trip but the last three runs include a ninth at Randwick, a fourth at Hawkesbury and a ninth again at Randwick. That is not the form of a horse about to win a $250,000 staying race against this field. The recent record over shorter trips is concerning for a horse being asked to go 2400m today.

Mr Monaco won the BM88 at Randwick last start but that was a weaker edition of what he faces today. I would watch rather than back.

My order: Campaldino, Travolta, opposition to Juja Kibo.

Pinito is the favourite under James McDonald for Chris Waller and she is a genuine contender. She won at Randwick last start and the form is solid. But I want to flag some concerns about the soft ground. Her recent record on softened going is four starts for no wins and two placings. She is not a wet-track certainty, and I think the market has priced her as though she handles it easily when the form says otherwise.

The horse I want is Sun Gift, trained by Danny O'brien and ridden by Craig Williams. She has been placed nine times from twenty-three starts and the consistency of that record is remarkable. Two wins and two seconds from her last four starts, all on good ground, and the wet-track record from earlier in her career is solid. She is coming back from a short break and the trainer has placed her well consistently throughout her preparation. I think she is significantly undervalued.

Starphistocated placed second behind Pinito at Randwick last start, beaten just over half a length. She won at Rosehill before that. The form at this track over this trip is legitimate. She is worth including as a second string.

Machine Gun Gracie is interesting in terms of raw ability but has been racing interstate and the form coming back to Sydney is untested. I would want to see her against this field before committing.

My order: Sun Gift, Starphistocated, with Pinito to run well but at shorter odds than I would like.

This is an interesting race in a field of capable three-year-olds. Beadman, trained by Peter Snowden and ridden by James McDonald, has won two of his last three starts and placed in the other. His win at Randwick over 1100m last start was convincing and the one start on soft came at Rosehill where he was second. The form is good, the connections are elite, and I think he deserves his market position.

Skyhook is the favourite and I want to oppose him. He won his trial at Rosehill on soft last start, which sounds good on paper. But the start before that was a sixth at Rosehill on good ground, beaten over five lengths. And before that a fifth at Flemington. His soft form is one start for one win but that single data point is doing a lot of work to justify the market position against a field of this depth. I think the public has latched onto the last start win without looking hard enough at what came before it.

Hidden Motive is worth including. He has won twice at Rosehill, including over this trip, and the wet-track record for a lightly-raced horse looks promising. Nathan Doyle is an underrated trainer and at his price he is a genuine chance.

My order: Beadman, Hidden Motive, opposition to Skyhook.

The Ranvet Stakes is a small but genuinely fascinating field. Aeliana is the favourite under James McDonald for Chris Waller, and she has placed twice behind Autumn Glow in her last two starts. That is not bad form. But I think the market has mispriced the distance question here. She has three starts at 2000m for no wins and one placing. She is coming into 2000m territory again today against a genuine class performer in a field where the pace data suggests nobody wants to lead.

The horse I want is Sir Delius, trained by Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott, ridden by Craig Williams. He has six wins from twelve starts, two of those at 2000m. He placed three times in his last three runs and the soft-track record is genuinely outstanding across seven starts. He comes back here at a price that I think represents terrific value against a short-priced favourite who has not won beyond 1600m in ten attempts.

Lindermann has won at Rosehill at the distance and the form includes placed runs behind Autumn Glow. He is a genuine each-way chance but I think Sir Delius is the stronger play.

My order: Sir Delius, Lindermann, opposition to Aeliana at the top of the market.

The Rosehill Guineas is the three-year-old staying race of the day and Autumn Boy is the clear favourite under James McDonald for Chris Waller. He won the Caulfield Classic convincingly and the form before that was solid. But his last two starts have been a second and a third, and neither performance screamed dominance. The soft track is also worth noting. His record on soft reads two starts for no wins, which is a concern for a horse carrying the weight of public money in a Group 1.

Observer, trained by Ciaron Maher and ridden by Craig Williams, has won four of his last five starts. He won at Flemington, Caulfield, and Moonee Valley in succession, the last three all coming at a mile or beyond. He placed second at Caulfield in the Classic when beaten by Autumn Boy but ran on well. He has not raced on soft ground which is a genuine concern. But the form chain here is strong and I think the public has been a little too quick to push him out.

The race sets up as a battle between these two. I am leaning toward Autumn Boy on form credentials despite the soft track query, but I want the market to drift toward Observer before I am entirely comfortable. This might be a watch race.

My order: Autumn Boy to win, Observer the obvious danger, watch rather than force it at the prices.

She comes back with ten wins from ten starts, unbeaten in every race she has contested. Autumn Glow, trained by Chris Waller and ridden by James McDonald, is the story of Golden Slipper Day. Her form on soft ground reads four wins from four starts. She won the Surround, she won the Coolmore Classic, she has won everything they have put her in. If you are looking for a reason to oppose her I cannot find one that holds up to scrutiny. The pace map is slow with no genuine leaders, which could technically disadvantage closers, but Autumn Glow has shown she can produce her finish from virtually any position.

The only honest question is what represents value in the race. I think Headley Grange is the most interesting runner at his price. He has eleven wins from twenty-four starts, the wet-track record is excellent across six starts, and he has won four of his last six overall including twice at this track. Joseph Pride runs horses with a purpose and Jason Collett is an excellent jockey in these circumstances. He is not going to beat Autumn Glow but he might run second at a price worth having.

Lady Shenandoah has placed three times in her last four starts, including a second at Randwick and a third at Randwick, both behind quality opposition. She has won at this track and the price feels a touch long for a horse of her ability. She is another each-way consideration.

Yorkshire has eight wins from twelve starts and two of those came at Rosehill. He maps to sit off the pace in a slowly-run race which could suit. But I am not backing horses against Autumn Glow today.

My order: Autumn Glow to win easily, Headley Grange each-way, Lady Shenandoah as the wider each-way play.

The Golden Slipper is $5 million and fifteen runners, and I will be honest with you: this is one of the harder races on the card to assess confidently. Two-year-olds on soft ground at 1200m with limited form lines is genuinely difficult territory. But I have views.

Warwoven, trained by Bjorn Baker and ridden by Rachel King, has won three from four and two of those came on soft ground. He won at Rosehill last start over 1200m which is today's exact course and distance. Baker has been in terrific form and King is an underrated jockey in these spots. He gets blinkers on for the first time which is a potential concern but the form justifies the engagement. I think he is significantly undervalued given he has already won on this track at this distance.

Streisand, trained by Clinton McDonald and ridden by Ben Melham, won the Reisling over this distance at Caulfield and won again at Caulfield before that. She is coming back from a short break which introduces some uncertainty, but the form is outstanding for a filly at this stage. She won over 1200m and I think the public has slightly underestimated her.

Chayan is the favourite and I want to oppose her. One win from three starts, the only win coming on good ground, and she ran seventh in the same race that Streisand won. I think the market has been harsh on Streisand and generous on Chayan in equal measure.

Music Time is the one that intrigues me most at his price. Three wins from four starts, the last three all on top of each other form-wise. He has come from Canberra racing which sometimes gets dismissed but the dominance of the wins is hard to ignore. The soft ground should suit given his record. Gratz Vella is not a name that appears at this level often but he has done an excellent job with this horse.

My order: Warwoven, Streisand, Music Time as the roughie, opposition to Chayan as favourite.

The Galaxy is a race where I think the favourite is beatable and the form says there are several genuine chances at prices worth exploring.

Marhoona, trained by Michael Freedman and ridden by Kerrin McEvoy, is a genuine talent. She has won three times and placed in most of her other starts. The issue is straightforward: she has never won on soft ground. Seven starts, no wins, one placing on softened going. She maps as a wide backmarker which makes it worse. I am not saying she cannot run a big race but I cannot back her as the clear favourite with that form profile on today's going.

In Flight, trained by Joseph Pride and ridden by Jay Ford, has won eight from twenty-one and the soft-track record is excellent. She has won here at this distance before. The form includes placed runs against quality opposition and she gets a useful weight concession today. I think she is significantly underrated by the market.

Briasa has won his last two starts, both on soft ground, including here at Rosehill last start. Back-to-back wins on soft ground at the track has to count for something. Tyler Schiller keeps the ride. I think he is a genuine contender at his price.

Mazu is a respected veteran who has won here and handles the conditions well. He has been around this level for a long time and I would not dismiss him entirely, but the age factor and the recent form suggest he needs everything to go right.

My order: In Flight, Briasa, opposition to Marhoona as favourite.