The Sportsbet Australasian Oaks is the seventh race at Morphettville on Saturday. Group 1, 2000 metres, $1 million, three-year-old fillies. It's the reason Danny O'Brien kept Getta Good Feeling in Melbourne rather than chasing the Sydney autumn carnival. His team flagged weeks ago that Adelaide was the target. She goes in as the $2.80 favourite. I'm not convinced that's the right price on the day.

The track is rated Good 4. Spicy Lu was scratched on Friday, leaving a 15-horse field with two emergencies listed. The speed sits on the inside. Freedom Flame from barrier 1 and Naraghi from 8 will both try to lead. From there the race will be decided by which fillies can run the 2000m out strongly.

Getta Good Feeling is a very good horse. Her record reads four wins from nine starts with a 44% strike rate and 89% place rate. She won the Wakeful Stakes G2 at Flemington over 2000m in November. That's the exact trip she faces on Saturday. She then ran 6th in the Crown Oaks G1 over 2500m beaten 6.25L by Strictly Business (who is also in Saturday's field at $20, and hasn't been the same since). Her last two starts are both wins. The Inglis Sprint at Flemington, then the Alexandra Stakes G3 at Caulfield over 1600m on March 21. A month's gap coming into Saturday, which is long enough to freshen her without being a concern. Billy Egan rides from barrier 5. The ingredients are all there.

My problem with her at $2.80 is this. She got beaten 6.25 lengths in the Crown Oaks over 2500m, and the horse who beat her that day is in this race on Saturday. She's won at 2000m before, but her best form this prep has been at 1600m. $2.80 is the price you pay for a horse whose 2000m G1 test was six months ago. If she wins I won't be shocked. I think the market has her too short.

Salty Pearl is the one for me. Ciaron Maher's filly is $4.80 and her form line is excellent. She ran 3rd in the Vinery Stud Stakes G1 at Rosehill over 2000m on March 28, beaten 0.38 lengths behind Belle Cheval, a top-class filly who then ran second in the Champagne Stakes. That's a G1 form line at the exact distance, and she ran her race from barrier 3. Before that she won the VOBIS Platinum Guineas at Caulfield over 1600m on March 14. Her record reads 13 starts, 3 wins, 11 placings. 85% of the time she comes home paid. Ben Allen rides and he draws barrier 3 again. I think that is an absolute gift of a draw.

The form chain I like runs back to October. She won the 3 Point Motors Fillies Classic G2 at Moonee Valley over 1600m, beating Stung (also in this race) by a comfortable margin. Stung went on to win a Listed race then bombed in the Auraria. Salty Pearl has franked that form at the highest level with a close 3rd to Belle Cheval in a G1 over the trip. That's a form chain getting stronger.

Panova at $8 doesn't interest me. Chris Waller trains her and James McDonald flies down to ride, which is the reason she's $8 and not $18. The recent form reads 2x4211x657. Her last three runs are 7th, 5th, 7th. She was beaten over 4 lengths in the Vinery where Salty Pearl was within a length of winning. I saw a post on X this week that put it well: "gee she's been underwhelming this prep. That Carbine Club Stakes win looks like a flash in the pan right now." She's drawn barrier 16, which makes her hard to get into the race. If McDonald pulls a rabbit out of the hat I'll tip my hat. $8 is poison on that form.

Mating Call is the home-state horse and the story Racing SA are pushing hard. Dan Clarken and Oopy MacGillivray are going for their first G1 together, and they told Channel 7 on Thursday she "should be favourite." She won the Auraria Stakes G3 at this track over 1800m on April 11, beating Stung by 10.96 lengths (Stung had an impossible run from wide). Jamie Melham takes over from Emily Finnegan. She's firmed into $7.50 and is now the third favourite. The Auraria form isn't as strong as the market is pricing it. Stung couldn't handle barrier 14 and the 10-length margin reads better than the form is. For a filly whose best race was beating a horse that ran 14th, I'd want longer.

Paltrow Miss is the Ciaron Maher second string at $13. She's had three starts, two wins, a second. Craig Williams rides. Her last start was a 1.5-length second to Savitri at Caulfield over 1700m on April 4, which was a Saturday handicap below G1 Oaks class. She's going up a massive amount in grade. The $13 is a fair price and she could place, but I'd be surprised if she won.

Savitri is $13. Five starts, three wins, and she beat Paltrow Miss last start, which is a legitimate tie-in. She's never run in a stakes race and she's jumping from a Saturday Caulfield handicap to an Australasian Oaks field. The draw isn't helping (barrier 13). Ben Melham sticks. I respect the profile more than the chance.

Cushioned at $67 is a class-angle lay. Freedmans trained, won a maiden over 2000m two weeks ago. Up in grade by about seven levels in one move. I'd be genuinely shocked if she figured.

Strictly Business at $20 is the Crown Oaks winner coming back for another crack. Form since: 7x121x58. She hasn't been the same filly post-spring and first-up gear changes (barrier blanket, winkers) tell you the team are trying to reignite her. She'd have to lift a mile. I'd want much bigger odds.

Just Kick at $51 is a name being pushed on social as a roughie. Her form is 23x3797x43. Couldn't be less interested.

Freedom Flame will try to lead from barrier 1. Naraghi maps for the lead from barrier 8. Spicy Lu coming out takes genuine early speed out of the race, and with only two real leaders the tempo is less guaranteed than it looked 24 hours ago. That helps the on-pace horses and hurts the backmarkers. Getta Good Feeling from barrier 5 and Salty Pearl from barrier 3 both map on-pace and will want to follow the speed and pick their moment. Panova from 16 maps a backmarker and needs the race to set up. If the pace is sedate, Panova can't get there, and Paltrow Miss's closing turn-of-foot loses some of its edge.