Three of four race favourites on this card have either never won on soft ground or have one failed attempt on the surface. Albany’s track is rated soft. That mismatch is where the money is.
Gingers sister can’t go wrong
Gingers Sister beat Great Deal and Renovation Show by more than a length at this track last start. Both line up again. Great Deal backed that up with a close third behind her, which validates the margin. Bella Violetta should lead at a slow tempo, keeping the on-pace runners in the game. Gingers Sister sits where she needs to.
Knockoneback is short but has never won on soft ground in seven attempts. Ashley Maley has no wins from four Albany starts. A last-start third at Ascot in stronger company still left him beaten over three lengths, and the surface switch makes him harder to back, not easier.
Bit Tired Actually won her maiden here but Class 2 is a different contest. Brandon Fiore’s Albany record (six wins from eleven starts) gives her a platform, but she needs another run at this level first.
Prince holds all the cards
Prince beat Crystalist by four lengths at Mount Barker in January. Crystalist won at this track next start. Prince also beat Secret Stones by a nose at this distance in December, and Secret Stones won the following start. Two beaten runners producing wins gives the form two separate anchors.
Hezangelic is favourite with no wins from eight starts on soft and no wins from three at Albany. Beaten just over a length here last start, but against weaker horses than he faces today.
Niccy’s Affair won here last start and should get a run from the back with Mister Raffles and Top Of The Pops setting honest pace up front. Prince has the class and the surface record to control this from on the pace. The tongue tie goes back on after being removed last start.
Testy Pharoah faces reality check
Testy Pharoah is odds-on after five months off the track. His only soft-ground start produced a tenth. First-up, on a surface he’s failed on, against horses who’ve been racing on this ground all prep. The price ignores every risk factor.
Seastic should sit behind G’day Bloke, the only horse showing early speed, and get a cart into the race. She won her maiden three starts back and has been competitive in stronger fields since. First-time blinkers.
Reggio Calabria has placed in three of his last four, including a third behind Niccy’s Affair (who won next start). A slow pace might blunt his closing run, but three placings from four starts says he’ll be around the finish again.
Albany Community Cup ($125,000)
True Player won at Bunbury. Punters have made him favourite off that single line of form. He has never won on soft or heavy ground. His only soft-track run produced a third. A $125,000 feature at a track he doesn’t know, on a surface he hasn’t handled, is a strange place to be shortest in the market.
Deadly And Fast won this race last start, beating Mister Popcorn by under a length. Mister Popcorn runs again. At Esperance Bay, Deadly And Fast accounted for Outspoken Lad, who won there next time out. He knows the track, he knows the trip, and he handles the ground.
Rocking Society ran third behind Royal Toronado at Pinjarra, where River Rubicon finished fourth. Both have been competitive at Ascot level since, which puts a floor under that Pinjarra form. Rocking Society has enough tactical speed to position without being caught wide, and his second to Fear The Wind at Ascot reads well at this level.
River Rubicon should lead but might find 2040m beyond him at this stage. The race sets up for horses sitting handy rather than deep closers. Deadly And Fast, from this draw, in this ground, at this track, repeating in the same race he won last time. That’s the bet.
