This is a slow tempo affair on paper with limited speed, which makes the job harder for the backmarkers. The track's riding a Good 4 and we've got a proper Benchmark 58 scrap on our hands.

Let me start with the favourite. Spread The Love is a three-year-old gelding from Danielle Seib who's only had three starts for a win and a second. The market's got him short here but I'm not convinced. Yes, he won at Canberra over 900 metres fresh and ran second over 1300 in the Heavy at Goulburn, but last start he was beaten nearly four lengths in a Benchmark 65 over this trip. That's a form reversal I can't ignore. He's dropping back in grade, fair enough, but the step up to 1400 off a 5th at Canberra doesn't scream confidence to me.

The horse I reckon has the strongest case is the top pick, and I'm with them on this one. Cossack Warrior has been knocking on the door something fierce. Look at this form: second at this track last start over 1400 by less than a length, second before that over the same distance, and he's a genuine local who knows Wagga inside out. Five starts at this track for one win and a placing, nine runs at 1400 for two wins and three placings. This gelding is crying out for things to go his way, and with no genuine speed in this race, Mathew Cahill can position him handy and give him every chance. The 56.5kg helps too.

Ancho from Gerald Egan won last start at Albury over 1175 in the Heavy, but here's the thing: he's never run this distance before and has no record at this track. Won fresh at Albury, granted, but before that he was 10th at Echuca over 1600, beaten over 12 lengths. That's a massive form turnaround to win next start, and I'm always wary of those. The step up to 1400 first time is a query.

Star Empire has been racing consistently without winning, and the 3rd last start at Sapphire Coast over this trip in a Benchmark 58 reads well enough. Eight starts at this track for two wins, four runs at 1400 for a win and a place. The 10-day backup is quick, and while Garry Kirkup knows what he's doing, I just think there are better chances here.

Undercut is a Zoustar three-year-old who ran 3rd at Canberra in a Benchmark 65 last start, beaten 2.5 lengths. That's not bad form stepping back to a 58, and he won at this track over 1300. But he's got no form at 1400 beyond a third, and I reckon the favourite and Cossack Warrior have him covered.

Performing Diva won a Class 1 at Goulburn last start at ridiculously long odds, but that was in soft going and she's dropping back from that to a Benchmark 58. The form before the win was pretty ordinary. I'm happy to watch.

The way I see it, Cossack Warrior gets his chance here. The form is consistent, the distance and track are proven, and he's going better than the market suggests. If Spread The Love runs to his Goulburn second form he's a chance, but that Canberra run has me worried. I'm backing the local with the better form line at this level.

Newcastle on a Soft 6, 1200 metres, Benchmark 64. Another race with limited speed on paper, which means it could turn into a bit of a dawdle and sprint home. That suits certain types, and I reckon I know which ones.

Call Me Gorgeous is the favourite and I can see why the market likes him. This David Pfieffer gelding has been racing in Hong Kong, which always adds intrigue. Last start he ran 8th at Rosehill in a trial, beaten 3.5 lengths, but before that he was running 2nd at Canterbury in another trial. The Hong Kong form shows he was running in Class 3 and Class 4 races over there at Sha Tin, which is no joke. First-up he's won before, from two attempts, and he's a Deep Field so the 1200 is right in his wheelhouse. But here's my concern: he's got no form at this distance in actual races. Six starts at 1200 for no wins or places. That's a red flag for me at short odds.

Shelstein is short in the market too and comes off a narrow second at Hawkesbury over 1300 in a Benchmark 64, beaten only 0.38 lengths. That's solid form. Before that he was 9th at Rosehill in a Benchmark 72, which is a tougher grade than this. He's won first-up twice from four attempts, and he's got three wins from 11 starts at 1200. The Soft 6 doesn't worry me with this bloke, he's won on soft before. Annabel Archibald and Rob Archibald have him primed. This is a genuine winning chance.

Nation Changing won last start at Tamworth in a Class 2 over 1200, and he's a horse who fires fresh. Three starts first-up for two wins, including this latest one. The form before that was pretty thin, but when he's on he can bolt in. The step up to a Benchmark 64 from a Class 2 is significant though, and I'm not sure he's got the class to match it with these.

Better Late is a Maurice three-year-old who's won twice from five starts and ran 3rd last time at Wyong over 1100 in a Benchmark 64, beaten under two lengths. That form stacks up here. He's won first-up both times he's tried it, which is a massive stat. The worry is he's never won second-up from one attempt, but the form is there. I reckon he's a each-way chance at longer odds.

Missile Magnate ran 3rd at Wyong last start over 1000 in a Benchmark 64, beaten under two lengths. He's had five starts for a win and a second and a third, so he's racing well without being a world-beater. The step up to 1200 is a query given he's only run it once for no placing.

Solitario is taking the blinkers off first time, which is interesting. He ran 12th last start at Rosehill, beaten nearly 17 lengths, which is shocking. But before that he won at Scone over 900. The form is all over the shop and the gear change makes me nervous. I'm watching this one from the fence.

The form horse for me is Shelstein. That Hawkesbury run was excellent, he's proven at the distance, and the stable is in form. Call Me Gorgeous might have the class but the lack of form at 1200 in actual races is a concern. Better Late is the roughie I'd have a nibble on if you're looking for value.

Newcastle mile on a Soft 6, Conditional Benchmark 68. This is the deeper race of the Newcastle card and the form takes some unraveling. Another race with limited speed, so positioning will be crucial.

The market has Regal Problem as favourite, a three-year-old filly from Lyle Chandler who's won twice from seven starts. She ran 4th last start at Randwick over 1800 in a Class 3, beaten under two lengths, which reads okay. Before that she was 9th at Rosehill over 1500, beaten 3.27 lengths as favorite, which is a concern. Her two wins came at Warren in a Benchmark 58 and at Tamworth over 950. The step up to 1600 is the big query here, she's never tried it. At short odds for a filly having her first crack at the mile in a Benchmark 68, I'm not convinced.

Falcon Lair is the other short-priced runner and he's got some tidy form. Ran 3rd last start at Canberra over 1600 in a Benchmark 65, beaten only 0.29 lengths. That's excellent form and the trip is proven. Before that he ran 3rd at Canberra over 1300, again beaten just over a length. From six starts he's won once and run five placings, so he's incredibly consistent. The blinkers go back on today after coming off, which might sharpen him up. This bloke is a genuine chance.

But the top pick is Cosmic Lad and I reckon they've nailed it. This Mitchell Beer and George Carpenter gelding is back fresh after 32 days, and his fresh record is excellent: five starts for a win. He's got a course win at Newcastle from five attempts here. Last preparation he ran 6th at Kembla over 1600 in a Benchmark 64, beaten 3.8 lengths, which isn't flash. But before that he was running 2nd at Warwick Farm over 1600 in a Benchmark 72, beaten only 0.21 lengths. That's city form at a higher grade than this. Go back further and he ran 5th at Warwick Farm over 1600 in another Benchmark 72, beaten under four lengths. The form is there, he's just been racing in tougher company. Dropping back to a Benchmark 68 fresh with Grant Buckley aboard, this bloke is a serious player at the odds.

Golden Loom has won two from 14 and ran 3rd last start at Canterbury over 1550 in a Benchmark 64, beaten 1.43 lengths. The form is consistent enough and he's won at 1600 before. The Soft 6 suits him, he's won twice on soft. But I just think there are better winning chances here.

Aimpoint has been racing in Benchmark 68s and ran 5th last start at Tamworth over 1600, beaten 1.45 lengths, which is solid enough. He's had 38 starts for seven wins, so he's a seasoned campaigner. The 1600 at Newcastle suits him, he's got a second here over the trip. But the form doesn't quite match up to Cosmic Lad's city efforts.

Exceed Perfection from Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott ran 2nd last start at Kembla over 1600 in a Benchmark 64, beaten 1.3 lengths. That's tidy form on the quick backup from eight days ago. He's run two seconds over 1600, so the trip suits. The stable is a massive tick and he's a chance, but again I think the top pick has him covered.

Dark Vador won last start at Wyong over 1625 in a Benchmark 64, so he comes in with confidence. But before that he was 12th at Sapphire Coast, beaten over 18 lengths, which is a shocker. The form is too inconsistent for me to trust at short odds.

The play here is Cosmic Lad fresh with city form at his mercy. Falcon Lair is the danger with his consistency, and Regal Problem might run well but the mile first-up is a big ask. I'm going with the fresh horse with the class edge.

Pakenham 1400 on a Good 4, Benchmark 62. The pace looks slow again, which means they'll likely crawl and sprint, favoring those who can finish off strongly.

Simply Outrageous is the market favorite and won last start at Ballarat over 1400 in a Benchmark 56 by a big margin. That's impressive form. From seven starts she's won twice and placed once, so the record is tidy. The step up from a Benchmark 56 to a 62 is noticeable but manageable. Tony McEvoy and Calvin McEvoy have her going well. She's won at 1400 before, so the trip is proven. This mare is clearly the one to beat.

Stung is an interesting runner. This Ben Hayes, Will Hayes and JD Hayes filly won on debut at Kilmore over 1460, then spelled for 137 days. She's back here first-up having run 5th in a Group 2 at Moonee Valley last start, beaten 3.9 lengths. That's a massive class drop today from a Group 2 to a Benchmark 62, and the stable clearly thinks she's above this grade. From two starts she's won once, and the 1460 win suggests the 1400 is right in her zone. The big spell is a query, but the class is there. I reckon she's a genuine chance at the odds.

The top pick is Honey Maker and I can see why. This mare has five starts at Pakenham for a win and a second and two thirds. That's a phenomenal track record. Six starts at 1400 for two wins and a second and a third. She knows this track and trip inside out. Last start she ran 2nd at Sale over 1427 in a Benchmark 62, beaten only 0.75 lengths in Heavy going. That's strong form. Before that she ran 7th at Sale, which wasn't great, but go back to her win at Tatura over 1450 and the form is solid. The 10-day backup is quick, but she's proven at this track and distance. That's a massive edge.

Baywatch won last start at Sale over 1400 in a Maiden, so she's stepping up from maiden company to Benchmark 62. That's a big jump in class. Yes, she won by 2.25 lengths which is dominant, but I'm always wary of maidens stepping straight into these grades. The 136-day spell is another query. She might be too good for these, but I need to see it first.

Here The Crowd from Ciaron Maher ran 5th last start at Caulfield over 1200 as favorite, beaten 2.67 lengths. Before that she ran 3rd at Pakenham over 1200 in a Benchmark 62, beaten 1.25 lengths. The step up to 1400 is interesting, she's run it twice for two fourths. The form is there but I'm not sure she's got the tactical speed to be effective over 1400 in a slow-run race. She might need more tempo to be at her best.

Chocolate Box is taking the winkers for the first time, which suggests Wendy Kelly is looking for improvement. She ran 3rd last start at Seymour over 1200 in a Benchmark 62, beaten just over a length. That's solid form. The step up to 1400 is a query, she's run it twice for a second, so she can handle it. The gear change is the interesting factor here.

Beautifully won last start at Terang over 1406 in a Maiden, so like Baywatch she's stepping up from maiden grade. She won by a big margin which is encouraging, but again, the class jump is significant. I'd rather see her do it in this company first.

The form horse is Honey Maker with that outstanding track and distance record. Simply Outrageous is the clear danger with her last-start win, and Stung is the wildcard with the class drop. But give me the mare who loves this track and trip. That's the edge I'm looking for.