Bubbaluski's Bridesmaid Blues Continue?
Punters, this is going to be a war of attrition. The pace map shows 34 likely leaders in a Class 3 over 1650m on a Heavy track. That's not a race, that's a demolition derby. Anyone who goes forward is going to get their teeth kicked in, which should set this up perfectly for something that can settle and finish.
The problem is working out who that might be because nearly every runner in this field wants to be on pace. Mr Bubbaluski sits at the top of my list purely on class and course form. Six starts at Doomben for two seconds and three thirds tells you he's rock solid reliable here, even if he can't actually win. Fresh off a 31-day break, he ran fourth in Class 1 company last time behind Dominant Darcy, beaten less than three lengths. Before that, third at this track over 1110m in Class 1, and he's dropping back to Class 3 here carrying 60kg. The Jack Bruce gelding by Encryption has the class edge over most of these.
Ritualize is the one coming off a quick backup, just four days since running third at the Sunshine Coast over 1200m on Heavy ground. That form line reads well enough, beaten less than a length, and he won first-up at Doomben over 1110m on a Heavy 10. The Stuart Kendrick three-year-old is a wet tracker through and through with two starts on Heavy for a win and a third. Gets in light at 57kg.
Some Style has won three of his last four, including back-to-back wins at Doomben over 1000m in Class 3. The Tony Gollan mare by Exceed And Excel ran sixth at Ipswich last start in Benchmark 65 grade, so she's coming out of stronger company than most of these. Three placings from three goes at this track screams consistency. But I've got concerns about the step up to 1650m, she's never been beyond 1666m and that was a fifth.
Data Scramble is another Bruce runner dropping from Class 2 to Class 3. Ran second at Ipswich over 1200m in Class 2 twelve days ago, beaten less than a length. Before that she was fifth in Class 1 at Doomben over 1350m. The distance suits, she's won at 1650m before, but five starts at Doomben for just one third suggests this track doesn't bring out her best.
Quickzou from the Gollan stable ran fifth at Doomben seventeen days back over 1350m, beaten 4.4 lengths. Prior to that he won a maiden at Eagle Farm over 1200m. Two starts at Doomben for a third, two at this distance for a win and a second. The form's a level below the top picks but he's got tactical speed and the Gollan/Zoustar combination always warrants respect.
I reckon Mr Bubbaluski is the one with the strongest case on pure class. He carries top weight for a reason, he's better than these when right. The question is whether he can actually convert. If he runs his usual honest race and gets swamped late, don't be shocked. But fresh, dropping in grade, at his pet track? This looks like the day he finally gets it done. Ritualize is the danger if the wet track plays to his strengths, and Some Style can't be dismissed given her Doomben record.
Class Drops Dominate Maiden Muddle
Here's the thing about maidens loaded with horses dropping from Class 1, Class 2, even Benchmark 70 grade: someone's going to look silly, and it's probably going to be the punters backing the favourite. This race has 24 likely leaders over 1110m on Heavy ground, which means it'll be run at breakneck speed early before turning into a slow-motion pile-up.
Barrelling is the standout on form. The Tony Gollan gelding has run five times at Doomben for two wins and a third, all over this 1110m trip. Last start he ran second in a No Metro Wins race over 1350m at Doomben, beaten just over a length by Chief In Charge. Before that, fourth in Class 2 at the same track and trip. He's dropping back to maiden grade carrying 60kg, which tells you everything about how the handicapper rates him. Won at Doomben over this distance in Class 1 back in his fourth career start. The form's rock solid.
Dark Arts is another Gollan runner with strong claims. Won at Doomben over 1000m in Class 3 two starts back, then ran third in Class 1 over 1350m last time, beaten 1.4 lengths. That's proper form for a maiden, even carrying 58.5kg. By Snitzel, he's had 16 starts for a win, three seconds and three thirds. One of those thirds came at this track. The concern is whether he's good enough to win a maiden after 16 attempts, but the class drop gives him every chance.
Berezka ships up from Victoria for Ciaron Maher. Ran sixth in Class 1 at Doomben last start over 1350m, beaten 3.4 lengths. That's her only run at this track. Prior form in Sydney shows thirds in Benchmark 72 company, which puts her a level above most maidens. But she's had 14 starts for one win and hasn't won since her third career start. The step back to maiden company is significant though.
Mr Bubbaluski appears in this race too, which seems like a data error given he's in Race 4 as well, but I'll address it anyway. Same story: six runs at Doomben for placings but no wins, dropping back to maiden grade from Class 1. If he's actually in this race, he's a massive chance on class alone.
Moon Sweeper for Matthew Dunn has run five times at Doomben for a win. Last start was fifth in Class 3 over 1000m here, beaten 5.3 lengths, which isn't flash. But he's placed in Benchmark 70 company at Eagle Farm and Gold Coast in his past form. Two wins from ten starts, both second-up. This is his second run back and the distance is a query, he's never won beyond 1400m.
Rashford is a Doomben specialist with 11 runs here for three thirds. Won at Eagle Farm over 1000m in Class 3 four starts back. The form's been consistent without being spectacular. Heavy track record shows a win from three starts, which is a tick today. But he's dropping from Benchmark 65 to maiden company, which suggests the stable thinks he needs the easier grade.
The form points pretty clearly to Barrelling as the horse with the strongest credentials. Two wins at this track and trip, recent form in stronger grades, and the Gollan stable firing. Dark Arts is the danger, especially if the pace is as hot as predicted and he can settle closer than most. Berezka brings city-class form but I'd want to see her do it at Doomben before getting too excited. This is Barrelling's race to lose.
Bruce Gelding Looks The Logical Play
Twenty likely leaders in a 1200m Class 1 maiden on Heavy ground at Doomben. I tell you what, this is going to be carnage up front and whoever gets the sit is going to pinch it. The race screams for something with tactical speed that can avoid the early war.
Weekend Spirit is the best credentialed runner in this field by a fair margin. The Jack Bruce gelding ran third at Ipswich last start over 1700m, beaten just over a length. Before that, second at Doomben over 1650m in a maiden, beaten a nose by Battuta. He's had six starts for a second and a third, both placings coming at suitable trips. Two runs at Doomben for a second and a third tells you he handles the track. By Spirit of Boom, he's bred to handle wet ground and his form backs that up with five runs on Soft for a second.
Hello Dolly Diva is the form standout with four runs for four seconds. The Paul Wallace filly has been desperately unlucky, beaten a nose at Eagle Farm over 1600m last start, beaten a short head the start before that, beaten 0.13 lengths the start before that. She's knocking so hard on the door she's about to kick it down. Three runs on Soft for three seconds shows she handles wet tracks. First-up record is two starts for two seconds. Everything points to her finally breaking through.
Our Mate Locky won at the Sunshine Coast over 1000m on Soft two starts back, then ran second at Ipswich over 1350m in a maiden last time, beaten 0.15 lengths. That's strong recent form. Heavy track record shows a third from one start, so the conditions aren't a concern. The step up to 1200m looks right given his last two runs have been at 1350m and 1000m.
Strike Me Pink ran second at Toowoomba over 1625m last start, beaten just 0.27 lengths. That's her second placing from seven starts. Prior to that she ran seventh at Doomben over 1650m on Soft, beaten 14 lengths, which is ordinary. But the Toowoomba form suggests she's improved since then.
Prince Phoenix ran second at Gatton over 1600m nine days ago, beaten 2.4 lengths. That's his best effort in five starts and suggests he's starting to work it out. But I'm not convinced he's up to this level yet.
Look, Hello Dolly Diva has been beaten a combined 0.27 lengths in her last four starts. That's ridiculous. She's the most genuine horse in Queensland racing right now and she deserves to win one. But Weekend Spirit brings stronger form and better track credentials. I reckon the Bruce gelding is the most professional runner here and if he gets even luck in running, he's the one they've got to run down. Hello Dolly Diva will be there at the finish, she always is, but Weekend Spirit looks harder to beat on class.
Zakouma Hype Meets Reality Check
Punters, let's talk about Zakouma because the market has made him favourite and I need to understand why. The Grahame Begg gelding won a Class 1 at Caulfield Heath over 1600m twenty days ago, which is nice. Before that he ran third in a Benchmark 70 at Sandown over 1800m. That's solid form without being spectacular. He's had ten starts for two wins, both coming first-up. This is his second run this prep, and his second-up record is two starts for a third and a fifth. So we're backing a horse whose best runs come fresh, in his second start back, stepping up to Benchmark 70 grade at Sandown over 1800m. I'm not saying he can't win, but I am saying the price looks short.
Morryl Moral is the one I'd be taking seriously. The Ciaron Maher gelding hasn't run for 45 days, so he's fresh. His first-up record is four starts for a win and a third, so he can run fresh. Last campaign he ran third at Kensington over 1550m in Benchmark 78 company, beaten less than half a length. Before that he was running in Benchmark 84 grade at Geelong. This is Benchmark 70 company, which is a class drop. Three runs at 1800m for a win tells you the distance is right. Thomas Stockdale gets on from barrier five, which is ideal positioning. The form's there, the distance suits, the class drop is genuine.
Figlio D'argento won at Sandown over this trip in Benchmark 66 grade two starts back. Last start he ran sixth in the same grade at the same track over the same distance, beaten just over a length. That consistency at this track and trip is worth noting. Three runs at Sandown for a win, three runs at 1800m for a win. The form's honest without being spectacular, but he knows how to win here.
Wuddzz brings strong staying form from Sydney, including a Benchmark 78 win at Randwick over 2400m on Heavy ground. But he's had 39 starts for seven wins and he's first-up here after running fifth at Ballarat fifteen days ago. His first-up record is five starts for a third, which isn't inspiring. The class is there but the fresh run is a concern.
Lario won at Geelong over 1512m in Benchmark 62 company four starts back. Since then he's run fifth and sixth in stronger grades. The Danny O'Brien gelding has Craig Williams on, which is a significant jockey booking. Blinkers go on and he's got tactical speed. But I'm not convinced the form stacks up against the top picks.
Pantile Warrior ships in from the UK for Danny O'brien. Ran eighth at Caulfield last start in Benchmark 84 grade, which is stronger than this. Prior form in England shows thirds in staying races. Fresh, first go at Sandown, stepping back in grade. The stable wouldn't bring him here without thinking he's competitive, but it's a watch-and-learn situation for mine.
The race has limited speed according to the pace map, which means it could turn into a tactical affair where positioning matters more than raw speed. Morryl Moral looks the most professional option with the class edge and the right racing pattern for this setup. Zakouma is clearly talented but the second-up query and the price make him resistible. Figlio D'argento is the each-way hope who knows the track. I'd be genuinely surprised if Morryl Moral didn't figure prominently with even luck.
Warwick Farm Becomes A Guessing Game
Heavy track, no genuine speed in the race, 1400m at Warwick Farm. This is going to be a crawl early and a sprint home, which makes it a nightmare to dissect. The horse that gets the right run is going to pinch it, and working out which one that might be is anyone's guess.
Monte Veebee is the market favourite and I can see why. The Bjorn Baker gelding ran third in Benchmark 78 company at Rosehill last start, beaten just over two lengths. Before that, third at Randwick in the same grade, beaten less than a length. Prior to that he won a Benchmark 68 at Newcastle. The form's progressive and consistent. Two runs at Warwick Farm for a placing, five runs at 1400m for a win and two seconds. First-up record is four starts for a win and two seconds. Everything lines up, which is probably why he's favourite.
Sarrismo won last start at this track over this trip in Benchmark 72 company. That's the form line that matters. The John O'shea gelding is three from three first-up, so he knows how to run fresh. The win was dominant enough, and he's got the track and distance form to back it up. But he's stepping up to Benchmark 78 grade here, which is a query.
Zoufield won at Canberra over 1400m in Benchmark 65 company last start. The Gai Waterhouse gelding is two from two first-up, so he's another one who can run fresh. But the step up in grade to Benchmark 78 is significant, and Canberra to Warwick Farm is a different kettle of fish.
Satirically won a maiden here over 1400m first-up twenty days ago. That's his only career start, so we're dealing with an unknown quantity stepping straight into Benchmark 78 company. The Gai Waterhouse colt by Snitzel has the breeding to be competitive, but this is a massive grade jump from maiden to this level.
Brigidine Gal hasn't raced since running third in a trial eight days ago. Prior form shows fifths in Benchmark 88 company. Four runs at Warwick Farm for a win and a third, six runs at 1400m for a win and a third. The class is there but the form's been ordinary lately.
Aligned won at Kembla Grange in Benchmark 68 grade last start, then won at Gosford in Class 1 the start before. The Peter Snowden gelding is stepping up in grade but his form's progressive. Second-up record is three starts for two wins and he's racing second-up here.
Prancing Spirit brings Victorian form and hasn't run for seventeen days. The form reads okay without being spectacular. Placing in Benchmark 84 company at Flemington suggests he's got the class, but first-up record is five starts for two thirds, which isn't inspiring.
I tell you what, this is a race where the barrier draw and the run matter more than the form. Monte Veebee has the most consistent recent form and the track/distance credentials. Sarrismo has the last-start win here which is hard to ignore. Aligned is the progressive type who could take the next step. But with no speed in the race, it's going to be a tactical affair and I'm not confident enough in any of them to make a strong call. If forced to pick one, Monte Veebee looks the most professional, but don't be shocked if something from the back of the field runs over them in the straight.
Where I Stand
The standout analytical case across this card is Mr Bubbaluski in the Doomben Class 3 Handicap over 1650m. Six runs at Doomben for five placings tells you he's rock solid reliable at this track, and dropping from Class 1 to Class 3 while fresh gives him every advantage. The concern is whether he can actually convert after so many placings here, but on pure class and course form, he's the horse with the strongest case.
At Doomben in the maiden over 1110m, Barrelling looks the most professional option. Two wins at this track and trip, recent form in stronger grades, and the tactical speed to avoid the carnage up front. The form's there in black and white.
Down in Melbourne, Morryl Moral at Sandown brings the class edge in the 1800m handicap. Benchmark 84 form dropping back to Benchmark 70, fresh off a break with a solid first-up record, and the distance suits perfectly. The market's gone for Zakouma but I'd be genuinely surprised if Morryl Moral didn't run a big race with even luck.
The Warwick Farm race is too tactical to make a strong call, but Monte Veebee has the most consistent form and the track credentials to suggest he's the one they've got to beat. Whether that's enough on a Heavy track with no speed is another question entirely.
How good is racing when you get a heavy track at Doomben and we can actually dig into some proper form analysis instead of guessing which horse handles the slop best. Let's go.
