Bloody hell, look at this form. We've got 17 horses wanting to lead in a maiden over 1350m on a bog track. This is going to be carnage up front, which sets it up perfectly for those who can settle and finish. The pace scenario screams closer's race, and that's where I'm looking.

Bews is the class horse of this field, no question. This Stuart Kendrick gelding has been racing in much stronger company, running second to Jungle Law in Class 5 grade at the Gold Coast last start. That form line stacks up when you consider he's been competitive at Benchmark 70-78 level. Six starts at Doomben for one placing tells me he's been finding it tough here, but dropping back to maiden grade is a massive class drop. The ratings have him miles clear of this lot. He's got soft and heavy track form on the board, and with 17 speed merchants going hammer and tongs early, he should get the perfect run settling midfield and unleashing late.

Colophon is the danger from the Michael Freedman stable. This Written Tycoon gelding won at Doomben and the Gold Coast last prep, both times as the punter's pal. Four wins from 13 starts says he knows how to win, and he's got a placing at Doomben already. The query is the Heavy 8 surface, he's only raced on it once for no placing. But the class is there with those two metro wins, and if he handles the going he's right in this.

Royal Commodore caught my eye coming back from a spell. This Matthew Dunn gelding ran second at Eagle Farm in Benchmark 78 company fresh, beaten under three lengths. That's strong form for a maiden, and he won a Benchmark 82 at Grafton two starts back. The ratings love him for good reason. First-up record reads two from three with a win and a placing, so he's a fresh horse specialist. The heavy track is the unknown, but the class edge is real.

Kingdom Undersiege is another Dunn runner with four wins from 10 starts. Won three on the trot earlier in the prep including a Randwick Class 3, so the ability is obvious. But he's been disappointing since, running 10th at Eagle Farm last time in Class 6. The form's tailed off and I'm not convinced he's going as well as earlier in the prep.

Bundella from the Tony Gollan yard has won his last two at Eagle Farm in Class 6 and Benchmark 65 grade, both on soft tracks. That's encouraging wet track form. But 110 days since his last run is a concern, even though he's had a recent trial. Fresh horses can be tricky, and this is a tough ask first-up in the wet.

I reckon Bews is the one they all have to beat here. The class drop is significant, he's proven at the distance with two wins from seven goes at 1350m, and the heavy pace scenario suits his racing pattern perfectly. Colophon and Royal Commodore are the main dangers if they handle the slop, but I'd be bloody shocked if Bews doesn't prove too classy for these maidens when the whips are cracking.

Another race with 15 likely leaders over 1110m. This is going to be a sprint where they go flat chat and the closers feast. Class 4 grade on a heavy track, and I'm looking for horses with the right form profile.

Possibilities from the Chris Waller stable is the most interesting runner here. This So You Think mare has been knocking on the door all prep with three placings from her last four starts. She ran third at Eagle Farm in Class 1 last time, beaten just over two lengths on soft going. Before that she was second at Eagle Farm in Class 1 on good ground, then third at Doomben in Benchmark 68 company. That Doomben run behind Headhunter is strong form for this grade. She's never won but six placings from 14 starts says she's honest and consistent. The heavy track is the query with only one run on it for no placing, but the wet track form overall reads okay with a win and two placings from seven goes.

Silent Call is the form horse with three wins from 10 starts for the Matthew Dunn yard. He won at Ipswich in Benchmark 62 grade on soft going two back, then ran third at Randwick in Class 3 last time. That's good form. He's second-up here with a record of two wins from three at that stage of the prep, which is a massive stat. Won on heavy ground before, so the track conditions are right in his wheelhouse. This bloke looks very hard to beat.

Headhunter won two at Doomben earlier in the prep including a Benchmark 68, so he's got strong course form. But he's been disappointing in two runs since, including 11th at Eagle Farm last start over 1810m. That trip looks too far for him, and dropping back to 1110m might be too sharp. I'm not convinced he's going well enough right now.

Sunlord has been placed six times from 21 starts but only won three. He ran sixth at Eagle Farm in Class 6 last time, beaten over four lengths. That's not the sort of form that wins races like this. He's honest but I think he's found his level.

Waverley won at Doomben over this trip earlier in the prep, so the track and distance suits. But he's been well beaten in two runs since, including ninth at Ipswich last time over 2200m. That's way too far for him, but even when he came back to 1400m he ran sixth. The form's not strong enough.

I reckon Silent Call is the one with the strongest case here. Second-up record is outstanding, he's won on heavy ground, and the form line through that Ipswich win and Randwick placing is solid. Possibilities is the danger if she can break through for that elusive first win, but I'd be genuinely surprised if Silent Call didn't prove too strong when they straighten up.

Punters, have a go at this. Twenty-four likely leaders in a maiden over 1110m. This is going to be absolute chaos up front, and the ones who can settle and run home are going to have a field day. This is a maiden in name only with several horses dropping back from stronger grades.

Mr Bubbaluski is the standout form horse in this race, and I'm all over him. This Jack Bruce gelding has had six starts at Doomben for two seconds and three thirds. He absolutely loves this track. Fresh here with 31 days since his last run, and his first-up record reads one from three with a win and a placing. Last time fresh he won at Eagle Farm in an Open race. The form reads well with placings at Doomben in Class 1 grade over 1200m and 1110m, beaten under two lengths both times. He's been competitive at this level and dropping back to maiden grade, even though it's a class drop on paper, gives him every chance. The heavy track is a query with only one run on it for a placing, but he's got soft track form with two placings from three goes. This bloke is ready to win.

Barrelling from the Tony Gollan stable has been ultra-consistent with five starts at Doomben for two wins, a second and a third. That's outstanding course form. He ran second here last start in a race with no metro wins conditions, beaten just over a length. Before that he was fourth here in Class 2, then third in Class 3. He's been knocking on the door in stronger grades and dropping back to maiden company looks a smart move. The soft track form is there with a win from four starts, but he's never raced on heavy going. That's the concern.

Moon Sweeper is another Dunn runner dropping back from Class 3 to maiden grade. He's been placed at Eagle Farm in Benchmark 78 and 70 company, which is strong form. But he ran fifth at Doomben last time in Class 3, beaten over five lengths. The form's tailed off a bit and I'm not sure he's going well enough.

Dark Arts has been competitive in Class 1 grade with a third at Doomben last time, a win at Doomben before that, and a sixth at Gold Coast. The Gollan stable is always strong and this Snitzel gelding has ability. But he's won on heavy going before, which is a big tick. He's a live chance if the track suits.

Colleano won at Doomben over 1000m two starts back, so he's got course form. But he's been disappointing since with a ninth and then seventh last time. The form's gone the wrong way and I'm not convinced he's the answer.

I reckon Mr Bubbaluski is the goods here. The Doomben form is outstanding with five placings from six starts at this track. Fresh and ready to go, and the class drop to maiden grade gives him every chance to finally break through. Barrelling is the main danger with that brilliant Doomben record, but if Mr Bubbaluski doesn't win this I'll eat my hat. This horse is going places.

Thirty-four likely leaders in a Class 3 over 1650m. This is going to be a war of attrition up front, and the ones who can finish are going to clean up. I tell you what, this is a brutally tough race to assess with so much speed.

Mr Bubbaluski backs up from the earlier maiden into Class 3 grade, and the form still stacks up. Five starts at Doomben over 1650m for two seconds and a third. That's elite distance form at this track. He's never won but seven placings from 10 starts says he's incredibly consistent. The class drop from Class 1 to Class 3 isn't massive, but his Doomben form is so strong that I reckon he's the one to beat. Fresh horses can back up successfully, especially at the same track, and this bloke knows Doomben like the back of his hand.

Ritualize from the Stuart Kendrick stable has won one from three starts and ran third at Sunshine Coast last time on heavy going, beaten less than a length. That's strong recent heavy track form. He won at Doomben over 1110m on heavy ground earlier in the prep, so he's proven on this surface at this track. First-up record reads one from two with a win and a placing, and he's racing well right now. This bloke is a serious threat.

Data Scramble has been placed three times from her last four starts for the Jack Bruce yard. She ran second at Ipswich in Class 2 last time, beaten less than a length. That's good form. She's got soft track form with a win and three placings from seven goes, but never raced on heavy ground. That's the query. Dropping from Class 2 to Class 3 is a class drop and she's racing consistently.

Some Style won her last two starts at Doomben in Class 3 grade, both over 1000m. That's strong recent form. But she ran sixth at Ipswich last time in Benchmark 65, beaten under three lengths on soft going. The form's dipped a bit and I'm not sure the step up to 1650m suits this mare who's been winning over 1000m.

Esprit Du Jour has been placed four times from 10 starts for the Gollan stable. She ran second at Ipswich last time in a Benchmark 60, beaten less than a length. That's okay form. She's been competitive at this level but I'm not convinced she's got the class edge to win here.

I reckon Mr Bubbaluski is still the horse with the strongest case despite backing up. That Doomben distance form is outstanding, and the fresh legs from 31 days between runs means he should handle the quick backup. Ritualize is the main danger with that proven heavy track form at Doomben, but I'd be bloody shocked if Mr Bubbaluski didn't prove too strong at his pet track and distance. This horse is crying out for a win and I reckon this is the race he gets it.

Thirteen likely leaders over 1650m in a three-year-old maiden. The pace is going to be solid and this sets up perfectly for those who can finish. I'm looking for horses with the right distance form and wet track ability.

Astern Effort from the Rex Lipp stable has had 10 starts for three seconds and two thirds. He's been knocking on the door all prep without winning, but the form is rock solid. He ran third at Ipswich over 1350m last time, beaten less than a length. Before that he was second at Doomben over 1350m on soft ground, beaten just a nose. That's desperately unlucky. Six starts at 1650m for three seconds and a third tells me this is his ideal distance. The soft track form reads okay with a placing from two starts, and he's racing well right now. This bloke is ready to break through.

Monakeed from the Matthew Hoysted yard has had four starts for two seconds. She ran second at Ipswich over 1350m last time, beaten less than a length on soft going. Before that she was second at Eagle Farm over 1400m, beaten a nose. She's been desperately unlucky not to win already. Two starts at 1650m for two seconds is outstanding distance form. The soft track record reads two placings from three starts, and she's proven on heavy ground. This mare is a massive threat.

Wiliamtheconqueror has had four starts for two seconds. He ran second at Doomben over 1000m last time, beaten two lengths. Before that he was second at Doomben over 1110m on soft ground. The Doomben form is strong with three starts for a second, but I'm not sure 1650m suits this bloke who's been racing over shorter trips.

Ceretti from the Gollan stable ran fourth at Ipswich over 1350m last time, beaten under three lengths. Before that she was second at Ipswich over 1350m. The form is okay but not outstanding. Two starts at 1650m for a placing is decent distance form, and the soft track record reads five starts for two placings. She's a chance but I think there are better options.

Delicious Derek from the Chris Waller yard ran fourth at Doomben over 1200m last time, beaten just over a length. That's okay form. Two starts at 1650m for no placings is a concern, and I'm not convinced the distance suits.

I reckon Astern Effort is the one with the strongest case here. That distance form is outstanding with six starts at 1650m for three seconds and a third. He's been desperately unlucky not to win already, and I reckon this is the race he finally salutes. Monakeed is the main danger with that elite distance record, but I'd be genuinely surprised if Astern Effort didn't prove too strong when they hit the line. This horse has been knocking on the door for too long and I reckon he kicks it down here.

Seventeen likely leaders over 1350m in Benchmark 68 grade for three-year-olds. This is a proper test of class and wet track ability, and I'm looking for horses with the right form profile stepping up from maiden grade.

Woodrow from the Kris Lees stable is the most interesting runner here. This Exceed And Excel gelding has had three starts for a third, and he ran fourth at Gosford over 1000m last time, beaten over two lengths. That's okay form. But what catches my eye is the distance form, one start at 1350m for a third on heavy ground. He's proven on this surface. Fresh here with 27 days since his last run, and his first-up record reads two starts for a third. The class jump from maiden to Benchmark 68 is significant, but the Lees stable wouldn't be running him here if they didn't think he could handle it. This bloke looks like he's going to appreciate the step up in distance and the heavy track.

Mercatello from the Gollan stable has strong Doomben form with two trial wins at this track. He's been competitive in his race starts and the stable knows how to place their horses. But I need to see more race form before getting too excited.

Zoustrology from the Jack Bruce yard ran fourth at Deagon last time over 650m. That's way too short for him. Before that he was second at Sunshine Coast over 1000m on soft ground, beaten just over a length. The form reads okay but the class jump is massive.

Saint Aldwyn from the Kelly Schweida stable ran seventh at Warwick Farm last time, beaten over eight lengths. That's not the sort of form that wins Benchmark 68 races. Fresh here with 34 days between runs, but I'm not convinced the form is strong enough.

The Aviator ran third at Doomben over 1200m last time, beaten just over half a length. That's okay maiden form. But stepping up to Benchmark 68 is a huge class jump and I'm not sure he's ready for it.

I reckon Woodrow is the horse with the strongest case here. That proven heavy track form at 1350m is exactly what you want to see, and the Lees stable doesn't send them up from Newcastle unless they're ready. The class jump is significant but I reckon he's got the ability to handle it. This is a watch race for me, but if I had to pick one I'd be leaning towards the fresh horse from the quality stable with the right form profile. Woodrow looks like he's going to run a big race.

Sixteen likely leaders over 1350m in Class 2 grade. This is going to be a proper slog on the heavy track with plenty of speed early. I'm looking for horses with the right class and wet track form.

Shredded from the Matthew Dunn stable is the standout form horse here. This Anders gelding has won two from seven starts with three seconds and a third. He ran third at Doomben last start in a race with no class restrictions, beaten just over two lengths. That's strong form. Before that he won at Murwillumbah in Class 1, then won at Ballina in maiden grade. He's on the way up and racing with confidence. The distance form reads two starts at 1350m for a win and a third, which is solid. The heavy track is a query with only one run on it for a placing, but the class edge is real here. This bloke looks very hard to beat.

Lonesome Soul from the Greg Wright stable has strong Doomben form with five starts for a win and a third. She won here over 1650m in Benchmark 65 grade on soft going earlier in the prep, which is strong form. But she's been off the scene for 143 days, which is a massive spell. Fresh horses can be tricky, especially in Class 2 grade. The ability is there but I'm not sure she's ready to fire fresh.

Cool Moon from the Toby Edmonds yard has been ultra-consistent with nine starts for a win and five placings. She won at Gold Coast over 1200m last time in maiden grade. That's good form. Four starts at Doomben for two placings shows she handles the track. But stepping up from maiden to Class 2 is a significant class jump, and I'm not sure she's got the class edge to win here.

Carbonara from the Robert Heathcote stable has won two from 15 starts with five placings. She ran fourth at Doomben last time in Benchmark 65, beaten under three lengths. That's okay form. Five starts at Doomben for a win and a placing shows she handles the track. But the form's not strong enough to suggest she's going to win this.

Cyber City won at Doomben over 1350m earlier in the prep by over five lengths. That's a dominant win. But he's been disappointing since with an eighth and then third last time. The form's inconsistent and I'm not sure he's going well enough right now.

I reckon Shredded is the one they all have to beat here. The form line through those two wins and recent placing is solid, and the class edge looks decisive. Lonesome Soul is the danger if she can fire fresh off the long spell, but I'd be genuinely surprised if Shredded didn't prove too strong when they straighten up. This horse is going places and I reckon he takes another step forward here.