G'day punters, and welcome to another edition of the Lay of the Day. I've got a cracker for you today, and it comes from Ascot in Race 2 where the market has gone absolutely troppo on a horse that's about to run itself into the ground.
We're laying Win For Buster, and I reckon this one's as vulnerable as they come despite being a short-priced favourite around the $2 mark.
The Speed Battle From Hell
Here's the thing, ladies and gentlemen. Win For Buster is a fast beginner with William Pike aboard, trained by David Harrison, and the market loves it. But take one look at this speed map and you'll see the problem. We've got SEVEN likely leaders in a 1000m maiden. Seven bloody horses all wanting to be on the pace, all scrapping for the front.
Win For Buster drew barrier 3, which means Pike will have to work early to get across, burn petrol in a speed battle with six other runners, and then try to hold on over the final furlong. Good luck with that in a maiden where horses aren't seasoned enough to handle that sort of pressure.
The form doesn't scream unbeatable either. Last start fourth at Belmont over 1300m, beaten a length and a half. Before that, won a Lark Hill trial, but that's not exactly metropolitan Saturday form. The horse has had three runs for no wins at proper race meetings, and now it's being asked to overcome a nightmare scenario.
I reckon the real value here is with something that can sit off the speed and pick up the pieces. With this many leaders going hammer and tongs, anything with a closing kick should get its chance. The pace will be absolutely furious, the leaders will stop, and Win For Buster will be one of them.
The Verdict
I'd be shocked if Win For Buster wins this. The speed map is absolutely brutal, the barrier draw means it has to work early, and the form line doesn't justify being this short in the market. When seven horses want to lead in a 1000m maiden, you don't want to be one of them, punters.
Look for something with a bit of pace sense that can sit midfield or worse and unleash late. This is a sit-and-sprint race if ever I've seen one, and the favourite is going to be cooked by the 600m mark.
Fire up, and let's go!
