Ladies and gentlemen, punters from near and far, fire up for today's Lay of the Day because I reckon we've got a juicy one at Warwick. The market has absolutely gone to water on Skieda in the Ian Free Memorial, a fillies and mares maiden over 1350m, and I'm here to tell you why I think this favourite is vulnerable as all bloody hell.
Twelve Starts, Zero Wins, Short Price
Let's start with the elephant in the room. Skieda has had twelve starts for zero wins. Twelve! Yes, she's been placed a few times, but when you've had that many cracks at a maiden and you're still looking for your first win, you've got to question whether it's ever going to happen. The form line doesn't inspire confidence either. She was sixth at Eagle Farm over 1400m, beaten over five lengths, then ninth at the Gold Coast beaten fourteen lengths. Yes, she's had a couple of thirds, but those were at the Gold Coast and Ballina in small fields, and she couldn't get the job done when she was second favourite.
Now they've drawn barrier seven at Warwick over 1350m with Stacey Callow aboard for Donald Baker, and the pace map shows limited speed in this race. No clear leaders means no tempo to run at, which is a nightmare scenario for a mare who's shown she needs everything to go right just to run a place. When you've got that much form against you and you're short in the market, that's when I get interested as a layer.
I think the real danger here is Haberfield from barrier four. The market has this one at decent odds, but in a race with limited speed and no standout form lines, I'd much rather be with something that's got a better position in running than a mare who's had a dozen goes and still hasn't broken through. Skieda might run well again, she might run another third or fourth, but I'd be shocked if this is the day she finally wins. Way too short for mine.
The Verdict
Look, I understand why punters might be drawn to Skieda. She's been thereabouts a few times, she's trained by Donald Baker, and she's had a couple of weeks between runs. But twelve starts without a win is a massive red flag, and when you combine that with a wide draw and a slow pace scenario, I just can't see how she's justified as favourite. This is a maiden race at Warwick, not the Golden Slipper. There are horses in this field with far less exposed form and better racing positions, and I reckon one of them gets the job done. I'm laying Skieda with confidence today, punters. Let's go!
