Ladies and gentlemen, equine and wagering enthusiasts, welcome to another edition of Lay of the Day. I've found one today that I reckon the market has got completely wrong, and it's at Taree in the Class 1 and Maiden Plate over 1600m.
The favourite Ngunnawal is way too short here, and I'll tell you exactly why this one's vulnerable.
The Speed Trap From Hell
Bloody hell, where do I start with this one? The pace map tells you everything you need to know. We've got 13, yes THIRTEEN likely leaders in this race. Ngunnawal, Autumn Heir, Contaldo, Flycatcher, Mortlake, Mr Square Pants, Xtreme, Highland Hustle, Whiskers, Aelfwynn, The Prospect, Scaligeri, and Gold Something are all going to be fighting for the front.
Now here's the kicker. Ngunnawal has moderate barrier speed and draws barrier 8. So Reece Jones has a decision to make: burn the petrol to get across and join that speed war, or get shuffled back and hope the speed collapses. Neither scenario is ideal for a horse that's only won once from seven starts.
Looking at the form, Ngunnawal has been running placings in Class 1 grade but hasn't shown me the class edge needed to overcome this nightmare draw and pace scenario. The recent fourth at Wyong over this trip was okay, but nothing special.
I reckon Contaldo from the inside gate is the real danger here. Better barrier, similar price at $4.40, and trained by Paul Perry who knows how to win these races. Xtreme is also interesting despite being in the same speed battle, freshly off a maiden win at Port Macquarie.
The Verdict
Ngunnawal is the lay of the day, punters. When you've got 13 horses going hell for leather from the jump over 1600m, you want to be sitting off that speed, not stuck in the middle of it from a moderate gate. The market's got this one wrong. I'd be shocked if this wins today.
Fire up and let's go punters!
