What happens when you drop proven city performers into soft country maiden company with absolutely no speed in the race? I'll tell you what happens: they win, and they probably win easily. Yet here we are at Taree with the market getting itself in a complete tangle, backing exposed battlers over horses with genuine metropolitan form. This is the sort of card where backing favourites will send you broke, and I'm more than happy to tell you exactly why.
Race 1: Maiden With Zero Pace
The pace map tells you everything you need to know here: limited speed, no clear leaders, which is a nightmare scenario for closers. This is going to be a dawdle and a sprint, which makes life very difficult.
Kenisis is short in the market on the back of a second at Beaumont over 1350m, beaten one and a half lengths by Heta. That's not bad form, but she was twelve lengths off them first-up at Scone over 1100m, which is a shocking introduction. I'm not convinced a So You Think filly with two runs under her belt is going to appreciate a slow-run 1400m on a Soft 5 track. The price is way too short for my liking.
Velka has been placed three times from six starts and comes in with blinkers first time. He was beaten less than a length by Alarthill at Muswellbrook in heavy ground, and that horse has since won. He ran fifth behind Dirty Does It at Port Macquarie, beaten two and a bit, and that winner has franked the form. But he's had four goes at this and hasn't won, and I'm not sure blinkers alone solve that problem.
Toke ran second to Second Swing at Tamworth, beaten three and a half lengths. That's solid form for this grade, but he was a beaten favourite at Muswellbrook before that, fourth behind Alarthill at even money. He's shown he can place but hasn't shown me he can win.
Pear Bellini is the market favourite and I cannot for the life of me understand why. She's had twelve starts for two seconds and five thirds. She was beaten 0.62 lengths by King Country at Taree last week over 1600m, which is her best effort, but she's 0-2-5 from twelve. At some point you have to ask whether she's just a professional placer. The blinkers are off and winkers go on again, which suggests they're still searching for answers.
The one I'm interested in is Bobbiwaa, who gets my vote as the top pick. He's only had one start, a seventh at Coffs Harbour over 1212m on soft ground, beaten seven lengths. Before that he ran third in a trial at Coffs over 800m on heavy, beaten nine lengths behind Seymour Stars. Look, that's not setting the world on fire, but Brett Bellamy has given him eight days between runs, the step to 1400m looks right for a D'argento, and I think there's improvement to come. At longer odds, he's worth a speculative play in a race with no standout.
I'm happy to take a chance on the lightly-raced Bobbiwaa over horses who've had multiple chances and failed to deliver. This is not a strong maiden and I think he's got more upside than anything else in the field.
Race 2: Kris Lees Filly Looks Short
Another race with limited speed, which is becoming a theme. This sets up as a messy affair where positioning will be crucial.
Prize Witness is the favourite for Kris Lees and Andrew Gibbons. She's run fourth and fifth in two starts, both at Scone and Beaumont. The fourth at Taree was over this distance, beaten three lengths by Hard Knock Life. The problem is she's shown absolutely nothing to suggest she's ready to win. She's a Shamus Award filly out of a Star Witness mare, so there's ability there on paper, but I need to see more before I'm backing her at short odds in a maiden.
Nordic Star ran fourth at Wyong over 1000m, beaten four and a half by The Netball Queen. Before that she was sixth at Beaumont over 850m, beaten less than two. She's shown some ability without threatening to win, and I'm not convinced the step to 1250m is what she wants.
Starward is the top pick according to the preview, and I can see the logic. He's had seventeen starts for a second and four thirds, which is a terrible record, but he's had eight goes at this distance with two placings. His recent third at Port Macquarie over 1108m, beaten 1.79 lengths by I'm Opinionated, is solid form. The problem is he's 0-1-4 from seventeen. At some point you have to win, and I'm not sure today is that day.
The one I like is O'britzelle, another Kris Lees runner. She ran second at Scone over 1000m on soft, beaten 5.74 lengths by Think Back. That doesn't sound great, but she was only fifth at Beaumont over 850m before that, beaten 1.24 lengths by Waveton. The step to 1250m looks ideal for a Brutal filly, and William Stanley with the 1.5kg claim is a positive. I think she's got more improvement in her than Prize Witness, and at longer odds I'm happy to take the chance.
This is a weak maiden and I'm not confident in any of them, but if forced to have a bet, O'britzelle at the price looks the value play.
Race 3: Stayers' Affair Lacks Depth
A Benchmark 66 over 2000m with limited speed. This is going to be an absolute crawl and a sprint home, which makes it very hard to assess.
Zelestial is the favourite fresh off a win at Dubbo over 1600m in Benchmark 58 grade. Before that she ran third at Dubbo and third at Armidale, both in Benchmark 66 company. The Armidale run was solid, beaten just over a length by Set To Prophet. The problem is she's stepping up to 2000m for the first time, and I'm not convinced a Zoustar mare wants this trip. She's rated 69, which is right on the limit for this race, but I think the distance is a query.
Mr Plume won at Taree over this distance four days ago in Benchmark 58 grade, beating Champagne Rouge by 1.46 lengths. That's solid form and he's a Preferment gelding who clearly handles the trip. He's had four goes at 2000m for one win, and he handles soft ground with two wins and two placings from twelve starts on it. The quick backup is a concern, but he's proven at the distance and track.
Pinot Nero is interesting. He ran seventh at Port Macquarie over 1500m in Class 3 company last start, which isn't great, but before that he was second at Dubbo over 2200m in Benchmark 58 grade, beaten a nose by Final Impact. That's strong staying form, and he won at Scone over 2200m in Class 1 before that. He's a Pierro gelding who clearly wants the trip, and the step up to 2000m looks ideal. I think he's got more class than most of these.
Bella Kathleen ran second at Port Macquarie over 1800m, beaten half a length by Amalfi Amore. That's solid form, but she was twelfth at Port Macquarie over 1500m before that, beaten eight lengths by Faiza Star. She's inconsistent and I'm not sure I trust her.
Fighting Magnus has strong Taree form with three wins and a second from fourteen starts here. He ran fourth behind Mr Plume four days ago, beaten 1.49 lengths. He's a course specialist who handles the distance, with two wins and a second from ten starts at 2000m. I think he's a chance to turn the tables on Mr Plume with the quick backup.
This is a weak race and I think Pinot Nero has the most class. He's proven at the trip, handles soft ground, and his form around Dubbo and Scone is superior to most of these. I'd be surprised if he doesn't figure in the finish.
Race 4: City Class Should Dominate
Now this is where it gets interesting. The pace map shows ten likely leaders, which means this is going to be an absolute bunfight early. That suits closers, but there aren't many genuine off-pace runners in this field.
Veecee is the favourite and I think the market has this right. He ran ninth at Port Macquarie last start, which looks poor, but he was only beaten three and a half lengths in Class 5 grade. Before that he ran third at Port Macquarie over this distance in Class 2, beaten 2.8 lengths by Seymour Stars. He's got city form, including a third at Rosehill in Class 2 behind Shropshire Lad, beaten less than two lengths. That form is streets ahead of anything else in this race. He's proven at the distance with four placings from eight starts at 1000m, and he handles soft ground. With all that speed on, he should be able to sit off them and run over the top. I think he wins.
Sosueme is short in the market and I'm not convinced. She won a maiden at Port Macquarie last start, which is fine, but this is Class 3 grade and she's rated 57. She's stepping up significantly in class and I think she'll find this too hard.
Canamble won a Class 3 at Scone at big odds, which is solid form. She's been freshened up for five weeks and maps to lead. The problem is with ten leaders, she's going to be in a war early, and I'm not sure she's good enough to sustain that and still win.
Our Emily ran fourth at Port Macquarie over this distance in Benchmark 58 grade, beaten 2.44 lengths by Dubalene. That's solid form, but she's stepping up to Class 3 and I think she's out of her depth.
The one I'm worried about is Dreams Of Thunder, who is fresh off a nine-week break. She's won twice at this distance on soft ground, which is a tick, but she's been well beaten in her last four starts. I'm not sure a freshen-up alone solves her problems.
I think Veecee is the clear class runner here. His Rosehill form behind Shropshire Lad is significantly better than anything else in this field, and with the hot pace, he should be able to sit off them and run over the top. If you're trying to beat him, you're just doing it for the sake of not wanting to back a favourite, and that's a mug's game.
Race 5: Snowden Gelding Faces Depth Test
A Class 1 and Maiden over 1600m with thirteen likely leaders. This is going to be an absolute slaughter early, which should suit anyone who can settle off the speed.
Xtreme is one of the favourites for Paul Snowden. He won a maiden at Port Macquarie last start over 1500m, beating a field of eight. That's solid form, and he's a well-bred Exceedance gelding. The problem is he's stepping up to 1600m and into Class 1 grade, and I'm not sure he's ready for that step yet.
Ngunnawal is the other favourite and I can see the appeal. He ran fourth at Wyong over 1600m in Class 1, beaten 2.25 lengths by Listen Sweetheart. Before that he was third at Newcastle over 1600m, beaten 2.8 lengths by Powerhouse. He's a Territories gelding who clearly wants the trip, and blinkers go on for the first time. The problem is he's had seven starts for one win, and I'm not sure blinkers alone turn him into a different horse.
Contaldo is the one I like. He ran eighth at Caulfield Heath over 1800m in 0-66 grade, which is metropolitan company. Before that he was second at Kensington over 1800m in Benchmark 64, beaten less than a length by Lennox. That's strong city form, and he's a War Front gelding out of a Galileo mare who clearly wants the trip. He's had six starts at 1600m for one win and three seconds, so he's proven at the distance. With thirteen leaders, this is going to be a muddling affair, and I think his class will tell.
Autumn Heir is the top pick according to the preview, and I can see why. He won at Taree over 1609m in a maiden, and he's undefeated at this track at the distance. But he's stepping up to Class 1 grade and I think he'll find this harder.
Whiskers won a maiden at Tuncurry last start, which is solid form. She's a Headwater mare who clearly handles soft ground, but this is a big step up in class.
I think Contaldo has the most class. His Kensington form behind Lennox is significantly better than anything else in this field, and with the hot pace, he should be able to sit off them and run over the top. I'd be genuinely surprised if he doesn't run a big race.
Race 6: Track Specialist Looks Overs
A Benchmark 66 over 1400m with limited speed. This is going to be a tactical affair where positioning matters.
Punch One Out is the favourite and I can see the logic. He ran fourth at Port Macquarie last start in Class 5, which is solid form. Before that he won at Kempsey in Benchmark 58 grade over 1450m by a length and a half. He's proven at the track with a second from four starts, and he's proven at the distance with a win and two seconds from three. The problem is he's stepping up to Benchmark 66 and I'm not sure he's good enough.
Santatime is the top pick and I think the market has him wrong. He ran twelfth at Port Macquarie last start, which looks terrible, but he was fourteenth at Randwick over 1600m in Class 3 before that, beaten nine lengths. The key run is his second at Rosehill over 1500m in Class 3, beaten half a length by Mount Bona. That's strong city form, significantly better than anything else in this race. He won at Gosford over 1600m in Class 1 before that, and he's proven at this track with a win and two seconds from three starts. I think his class is being underestimated.
Andrea ran third at Canterbury over 1200m in Benchmark 64, beaten 1.42 lengths by Penpel. That's solid city form, and he won at Gosford in Class 1 over 1200m before that. The step to 1400m is a query, but his form is strong.
Steely Girl ran fourth at Taree last start over 1600m in Benchmark 58, beaten two lengths by Shutter. Before that she won at Port Macquarie in Class 3 over 1509m. She's in form and handles the track.
Myalaby ran third at Beaumont over 1350m in Benchmark 66, beaten 0.07 lengths by Smart Cry. That's strong form and she's clearly in good order. The step to 1400m looks ideal.
I think Santatime is the value play here. His Rosehill form behind Mount Bona is streets ahead of anything else in this field, and his track record is excellent. At longer odds, I think he's being significantly underestimated. The market is focusing on his last two runs and ignoring the fact that he's got genuine city class.
Race 7: Distance Specialist Worth a Look
The finale is a Benchmark 58 over 1250m with limited speed, which means this is going to be another tactical affair.
Ready And Lucky is the favourite fresh off a win at Scone and a win at Beaumont over 1350m in Benchmark 66 grade. She's clearly in good form, but she's dropping back to 1250m and stepping down in grade. I'm not convinced she needs to drop back in trip, and I think the shorter distance is a negative.
Mosgiel Daisy is a track specialist with three wins and a second from sixteen starts here. She ran second at Taree last start over 1000m, beaten a nose by Life Coach. That's strong form, and she's proven at this distance with three wins and a second from fourteen starts at 1250m. The problem is she's had twenty-eight starts for five wins, which suggests she's not overly consistent.
All Too Rosey is the top pick and I think there's value here. She won at Port Macquarie over 1200m in Benchmark 58 grade last preparation, beating the field by 1.65 lengths. Before that she ran eighth at Taree over 1412m, beaten five lengths by Smart Jazz, which isn't great. But she's proven at this distance with two wins and two seconds from ten starts at 1250m. She's a track specialist with three placings from thirteen starts here, and she clearly handles soft ground with a win and two placings from sixteen starts on it. The wide gate is a concern, but with limited speed, she should be able to find a position.
Toomuchinformation ran fifth at Port Macquarie last start over 1000m, beaten 2.49 lengths by Dubalene. Before that he ran third at Kempsey over 1250m, beaten 0.88 lengths by Cutting Edge. That's solid form at this distance, and he's proven here with a win and three seconds from eight starts at Taree. He's a chance.
Cool Az Aletta ran third at Port Macquarie over 1200m in Class 2, beaten 0.82 lengths by Outakandy. That's solid form and he's clearly in good order. Blinkers come off and visors go on, which suggests they're still searching for the right gear.
I think All Too Rosey is the value play. Her distance record is excellent with two wins from ten starts at 1250m, and her track form is solid with three placings from thirteen. She won well at Port Macquarie last preparation and I think she's being underestimated at longer odds. The wide gate is a concern, but with limited speed, it shouldn't be fatal.
Where I Stand
The horse with the strongest case on this card is Veecee in Race 4. His Rosehill form behind Shropshire Lad is significantly better than anything else in the race, and with ten leaders ensuring a hot pace, he should be able to sit off them and run over the top. If you're trying to beat him, you're just doing it for the sake of not wanting to back a favourite.
The value play of the day is Santatime in Race 6. The market is completely underestimating his city class, focusing on his last two runs and ignoring the fact that he ran second at Rosehill in Class 3 behind Mount Bona. That form is streets ahead of anything else in this Benchmark 66, and his track record is excellent with a win and two seconds from three starts. At longer odds, I think he represents genuine value.
In Race 5, Contaldo has the most class with his Kensington form behind Lennox. With thirteen leaders ensuring a muddling pace, I think his metropolitan experience will tell. I'd be genuinely surprised if he doesn't run a big race.
The race I'm happiest to avoid is Race 1, where Pear Bellini is favourite despite being 0-2-5 from twelve starts. At some point you have to question whether a horse is just a professional placer, and I think that's exactly what she is. I'm taking a speculative play on Bobbiwaa, who has upside that the exposed runners don't.
