Ready And Lucky Looks Hard To Beat Despite The Knock
This is a race with limited speed and that's going to suit the horses who can settle close. Ready And Lucky is the shorty in the market and I reckon there's good reason for it. Yeah, the gelding ran sixth at Wyong last start over 1100m, but that was up in grade at Benchmark 64 level and only 3.2 lengths off the winner. Before that? Won at Scone over 1000m, then bolted in at Beaumont over 1350m at Benchmark 66 by a narrow margin. That's quality form, punters. The horse drops back to 58 grade here, gets Deon Le Roux's 3kg claim bringing the weight to 60kg, and has won fresh before. The Soft 5 track doesn't worry this one either, with a win and a place from five goes on the shifty.
Mosgiel Daisy is the local hope with a massive record at this track: 16 starts for three wins, a second and two thirds. That's serious home track advantage. The mare ran second here seven days ago over 1000m, beaten less than a length, and before that was competitive in Benchmark 58 company at this trip. The heavy track record is outstanding, three wins from 11 starts, so if it rains more she'll only improve. Matthew Robinson knows how to place this mare and she's a genuine winning chance.
Amarone is one I'm keeping an eye on. The gelding ran ninth at Port Macquarie last start but that was first-up at 1200m. Second-up record reads two wins from three starts, and the form before the spell wasn't bad, running second at Taree over 1000m beaten just over a length. Drops 3.5kg from that run and gets out to 1250m which suits. The concern is the rating of 55 suggests this is a step up in grade.
Toomuchinformation has placed at this track three times from eight starts and ran third at Kempsey last start over this trip, beaten less than a length. The gelding's soft track record is solid with two wins and five places from 19 starts. At longer odds, there's some value if the pace collapses.
All Too Rosey won at Port Macquarie two back over 1200m by 1.65 lengths, then ran a shocker last start, 12th and beaten over 12 lengths. That's a form line you can put through. The gear changes, blinkers back on and winkers off for the first time, suggest Tony Ball is looking for a different response. The mare's won twice at this trip from 10 starts, but I need to see more consistency.
The rest of the field are either lightly raced or struggling for form. He'sthechief won a maiden at Tamworth second-up but this is a different level. Cool Az Aletta has gear changes with blinkers off and visors on for the first time, which is a watch-and-see scenario. Bonus Tempus is an emergency who ran fourth here last start at 1250m, beaten just 0.6 lengths in Class 3 company. If he gets a run, he's not without a hope at longer odds.
I'm siding with Ready And Lucky to get the job done. The form at higher grades stacks up, the claim helps, and the slow pace should see this horse settle in the first four and prove too strong. Mosgiel Daisy is the danger with that home track record, and Amarone is the each-way play if you're looking for value second-up.
Lady Zaydi's Track Record Makes Her The Goods
Another race with limited speed, and that's going to make this tactical. Lady Zaydi is the one I'm most keen on. Have a look at this track record: four starts for a win, two seconds and zero misses. That's a 75% strike rate at Warwick, punters. Last start she ran second here over 800m, beaten just under two lengths, and before that ran third at Dalby over 1400m. The step up to 1100m looks ideal, and the mare's soft track record is outstanding with two wins and two seconds from five starts. Alyssa & Troy Sweeney have placed her perfectly and Brandon Lerena takes the ride. This is the one they're all chasing.
For Better is the market favourite but I'm not convinced. Yeah, the mare's won three from nine starts, but the recent form reads seventh at Eagle Farm over 1200m beaten 5.3 lengths, then 12th at the Gold Coast over 1400m. Before that she won at Eagle Farm over 1000m, but that was in Class 3 company. This is a step up in grade and the form line doesn't scream confidence to me. The soft track record shows one win from three starts, so there's ability there, but I need more evidence.
Sutherland ran second at Dalby last start over 1100m, beaten just 0.35 lengths in Benchmark 60 grade. That's solid form and the mare drops back to 58 level here. The Warwick record is excellent: three starts for two wins and a second. The concern is the weight, 62.5kg even with Kayla Barker's 2kg claim, and the mare's coming off a seventh-day back-up. Fresh would be better.
Giggy is resuming after 81 days and has a brilliant Warwick record: three starts for two wins. The gelding ran fifth at Kilcoy last start in a trial, beaten just under four lengths, and second-up last prep won at Toowoomba. Harry Richardson has this horse fit and ready, and the blinkers go back on. The fresh form isn't great, zero wins from two starts, but the class is there with a Benchmark 58 placing to his name. Worth including in exotics.
Lady Zaydi is the one with the strongest case. The track record is outstanding, the soft track form is there, and the step up to 1100m looks ideal. For Better is too short in the market for mine based on recent form, and Sutherland is the each-way value if you want to take on the favourite.
Kingsford Fresh And Ready To Fire Over The Trip
This is a staying test at 2000m and the form lines are all over the place. Kingsford is the horse I'm most interested in. The gelding won at Colac last start over 2000m by a comfortable margin, and before that ran fifth at Warrnambool over 1700m. The distance form is there with a win and a third from two starts at 2000m. Matthew Williams has given this horse 32 days between runs, which suggests he's been set for this, and Dean Yendall is a top rider. The good track record is perfect with two wins from five starts, and the rating of 63 puts him right in this.
So Suave is the favourite but I'm not sold. Yeah, the gelding ran fifth at Sandown last start over 1800m, beaten less than a length in Benchmark 66 grade, and before that ran third at Caulfield over 1800m. The form is consistent, but this is first-up over 2000m at a new track. The only distance run was a win at Doomben over 2070m in a maiden, so the class jump is significant. Chris Waller knows what he's doing, but I'd want better odds than favourite for this scenario.
Dartboard is the topweight on 62.5kg but has form at the trip with a third at Mount Gambier over 2062m beaten 0.66 lengths in Benchmark 78 company. That's strong form, punters. Before that ran fifth at Ararat over 2200m, so the distance isn't a worry. The concern is the last start at Sandown over 2400m where the horse ran 12th beaten 5.32 lengths. That was on a Soft 8, so maybe the ground was against him. Back on a Good 4 here could make all the difference. At longer odds, there's value if you're prepared to forgive the last run.
Khant Bee won at Horsham last start over 1800m and before that ran fourth at Seymour over 1600m. The gelding's distance form shows zero wins from two starts at 2000m, but one of those was a second at Casterton beaten just 0.3 lengths. The gear changes are interesting with blinkers on the near side for the first time and a winker off. Andrew Bobbin is trying something new, which could spark improvement.
Lady Thinkabell won at Kyneton last start over 1887m and has never raced at 2000m. The mare's fresh form shows zero wins from three starts, but two seconds, so she's competitive. The blinkers stay on and John Symons & Sheila Laxon are proven trainers. The unknown is whether she stays the trip, but the breeding suggests she will.
I'm backing Kingsford to get the job done. The distance form is proven, the fresh record is strong with a win second-up, and the trainer's given him time between runs. So Suave is too short for mine, and Dartboard is the value play if you want to take a risk on forgiving the last start.
Silver Serenade The Class Runner From The Inside Gate
The speed map shows limited tempo with Liubov likely to lead, and that's going to make this interesting. Silver Serenade is the favourite and I reckon she's the goods. The filly ran ninth at Randwick last start over 1000m, but that was in Class 3 company at metropolitan level. Before that she ran second at this track over this trip, beaten just 0.35 lengths by Zoutempus. That's strong form at this grade, punters. Earlier in the prep she ran fourth at Rosehill in Benchmark 72 grade beaten less than a length, and before that ran third at Moruya in Benchmark 58 company. The class is there, the track form is there with a second and a third from two starts, and the distance form shows a win and a second from four starts at 1100m. Danny Williams has her fit and ready, and Pierre Boudvillain from barrier two should be able to settle her handy. This is the one to beat.
Quein Step has an excellent Goulburn record with four starts for a win, two seconds and a third. That's a 100% strike rate in the money. Last start the mare ran fourth at Newcastle over 900m beaten just 2.56 lengths, and before that ran second at Wyong over 845m. The concern is the distance, with only one start at 1100m for zero wins. The mare's best form is over shorter trips, so the step up to 1100m is a query. Ciaron Maher is a top trainer, but I'd want to see more evidence at this distance.
Bivacco won at Canberra last start over 1000m in a maiden by a comfortable margin. That's a good starting point, but this is a step up in grade to Benchmark 58 company. The gelding's only had five starts for a win and a second, so the form sample is limited. Ciaron Maher wouldn't be running him here if he didn't think he could handle it, and the good track form is perfect with a win and a second from three starts. The unknown is whether he can handle the class jump.
Wandaye ran sixth at Rosehill last start over 900m, beaten just 1.5 lengths, and before that ran ninth at Hawkesbury over 1300m. The form is inconsistent, but earlier in the prep the mare won at Bathurst over 1200m on a Soft 6. The Goulburn record shows one start for a second, so there's ability at this track. The concern is the step up to 1100m and whether the form is good enough.
Dubai Centre is a veteran with 59 starts and a solid soft track record. The gelding ran eighth at Nowra last start beaten 10.3 lengths, which you can put through, but before that ran ninth at Goulburn beaten 10.44 lengths. The form is patchy, and the rating of 67 suggests this is a drop in grade. At longer odds with Nicholas Hyde's 4kg claim, there's some value if the pace collapses and he can run on late.
I'm siding with Silver Serenade to get the job done. The class edge is significant, the track form is strong, and the inside barrier is a massive advantage with limited speed in the race. Quein Step is the danger with that Goulburn record, but the distance is a query. Bivacco is the roughie if you think the class jump isn't too much.
Ghost Walker's Track Mastery Too Strong For This Lot
This is a Class 3 Benchmark 66 over 1300m and the speed map shows Faceoff likely to lead with limited pressure. Ghost Walker is the horse I'm most keen on despite the wide barrier. Have a go at this Goulburn record: four starts for two wins and two seconds. That's a perfect strike rate at this track, punters. Last start the gelding ran second at Wagga over 1200m in Class 4 company, beaten just 0.35 lengths. Before that he ran third at Canberra over 900m, then fifth at Randwick over 1600m in Class 3 grade. The form at this level is proven, and earlier in the prep he won at Goulburn over 1600m in Benchmark 58 company by 0.83 lengths. The distance form shows two wins and a third from three starts at 1300m, so the trip is ideal. Danielle Seib has placed this horse perfectly, and Pierre Boudvillain is a top jockey. The wide barrier is a concern, but with limited speed the horse should be able to work across and settle in a forward position. This is the class runner of the race.
Sir Franklin is the favourite and I can see why. The gelding won at Goulburn last start over 800m comfortably, and before that ran second at Moruya over 900m. Earlier in the prep he won at Goulburn over 1200m in Class 3 company by 0.4 lengths. The track form is excellent with two starts for a win and a second, and the soft track record is outstanding with three wins and two seconds from six starts. The concern is the step up from 800m to 1300m, which is a significant jump. The horse has never raced at 1300m, so the distance is unknown. Lauren Davies is confident enough to run him, but I'd want to see more evidence at this trip.
Highway Strip has a perfect Goulburn record with two starts for two seconds. The gelding ran sixth at Rosehill last start over 1300m beaten just under nine lengths, but that was in Class 3 company at metropolitan level. Before that he ran ninth at Randwick in Benchmark 78 grade. The form earlier in the prep was better, with a fourth at Randwick in Benchmark 78 company beaten just over two lengths. The class is there, but the recent form suggests he's not at his peak. At shorter odds in the market, I'd want better recent efforts.
Party Doll ran third at Goulburn last start over 1200m beaten 2.35 lengths, and before that ran sixth at Goulburn over 1300m. The mare's track form shows two starts for zero wins, but the recent form is consistent. The soft track record is solid with zero wins but five seconds from 14 starts, so she's competitive on the shifty. Rochelle Wedrat-kroezen's 3kg claim brings the weight to 58kg, which helps. At longer odds, there's value if you think she can turn the placings into a win.
Faceoff is likely to lead with his barrier and running style. The gelding won at Moruya last start over 1200m and before that ran sixth at Kembla Grange over 1200m. The Goulburn record shows one start for a win, so there's ability at this track. The concern is the soft track form, with zero wins from eight starts. If the track stays at Soft 5, that's a negative for this horse.
I'm backing Ghost Walker to prove too strong. The track record is outstanding, the distance form is proven, and the class edge is significant. Sir Franklin is the danger if the distance isn't a problem, but I'd be genuinely surprised if Ghost Walker didn't figure prominently from a good ride. Party Doll is the value play for the exotics with the claim helping.
Where I Stand
The horse with the strongest case across the card is Ghost Walker at Goulburn in the Class 3 Benchmark 66. That track record of four starts for two wins and two seconds is outstanding form, and the gelding's proven at the distance with two wins from three starts at 1300m. The class edge over this field is significant, and I'd be bloody shocked if anything could run this one down from a good ride.
At Warwick, Lady Zaydi looks perfectly placed in the Benchmark 58. That 75% strike rate at the track with a win, two seconds and zero misses is the sort of form you can't ignore. The soft track record is excellent, and the step up to 1100m looks ideal. The favourite For Better is too short in the market for mine based on recent efforts.
Ready And Lucky at Taree is the one I'm most confident about in the Benchmark 58. The form at higher grades stacks up, winning at Benchmark 66 level before, and the drop back to 58 grade with a 3kg claim makes this horse well-placed. The slow pace should suit, and I reckon this gelding's got too much class for this lot.
At Ballarat, Kingsford is the most interesting runner in the Benchmark 62 over 2000m. The gelding won at the distance last start and has been given 32 days between runs, which suggests the trainer's set him for this. Fresh second-up with a strong distance record makes this horse the one with the best analytical case, even though the market has So Suave shorter.
How good is racing when the form guides get turned on their head by wet tracks. These are the horses I reckon have the strongest form arguments, and I'm backing my judgment on all four. Let's go.
