Here's the problem, punters. Buckeye is a closer. The form guide shows midfield closing speed, and when you look at the speed map, this race is setting up as a nightmare. We've got limited speed, just Flying Party leading with a couple of stalkers, and a slow tempo expected. That means Buckeye is going to be sitting back in traffic, looking for a run that might not come, and then trying to sprint past horses that haven't been put under any pressure.

Eight starts for zero wins is a concern in itself. Yes, there's been four placings, including a narrow second at Kembla Grange last start, but that was at 1300m in a race with only six runners. Before that, beaten nearly three lengths at Warwick Farm, and over three and a half lengths at the Gold Coast. This isn't a horse that's screaming out to be backed at $1.25 in any race, let alone one where the pace scenario is going to work against its racing pattern.

The real danger here? I reckon No Verdict from barrier three at bigger odds is the play, or even Dame Dividend if it can get into a stalking position. But the one I'm most interested in is actually Flying Party from the wide gate. If that horse can get across and control a slow tempo, it could pinch this, and Buckeye will be left flat-footed trying to run them down.