The Marathon Test Favours The Specialist
Right, 2140 metres on a Soft 5 with basically no speed in this race. That's going to be an absolute crawl, punters, and it's going to turn into a sprint home. The pace map shows limited speed with every runner bar Devils Daughter wanting to settle back, which means we're looking at a tactical nightmare.
Tavijewel is the standout form runner here for mine. This Barry Wall gelding has won at Orange over 2100m on a Heavy track last start, then ran second here at Goulburn over 2120m just ten days ago, beaten less than two lengths by Tabor. That's outstanding form for this grade. He's got four wins from 28 starts, but critically he's got four wins and three placings from seven runs at 2100m or further. This horse is a genuine stayer. The concern is barrier two with no speed on, but Robyn Freeman knows this track and will have to be patient.
Snap Decision is the market favourite for Matthew Dale, and I can see why. He ran second here at Goulburn over 1600m beaten a nose last time, and before that was only 2.4 lengths off the winner at Wagga. But here's my issue: he's never raced beyond 1600m, and this is a massive step up to 2140m. That's a hell of a query, particularly with no speed to run at. First-up over this trip from barrier three? I'm not convinced.
Devils Daughter from the Paul & Martha Cave stable gets Dale Cole claiming 2kg, which brings her down to 57.5kg. She's the only runner showing any early pace according to the map, settling around third or fourth. That could be crucial in a slowly-run race. Her form is honest without being spectacular, but at this trip on this track, being on the pace might be everything.
I Doubt It won last start at Queanbeyan over 2000m and has been placed at Sapphire Coast over 1600m before that. This Greg Backhouse mare is building a nice profile at the staying distances and gets in light at 56kg with Amy McLucas claiming 2kg. The concern is barrier eight and settling back in a race with no speed.
King Edward won at Albury over 2000m on a Heavy track two weeks ago and has the trip credentials. But he's got just nine starts and this is a big step up in grade. The blinkers stay on and he maps to settle midfield from barrier four. Look, the form's there, but at mid-range odds I'm not sure he's offering value.
The conclusion here is that Tavijewel looks the most trustworthy runner given his distance form and recent Goulburn placing. Devils Daughter is the danger if she can control the tempo from the front. I'd be watching Snap Decision closely, but that distance query is real.
The Consistent Mare Versus The Trial Winner
This is a fascinating maiden over 1200m because we've got horses coming from completely different form lines. Initiate is the favourite for Todd Smart, and fair dinkum, she's been knocking on the door. Five placings from eight starts including a second at Albury last start beaten 0.7 lengths on a Heavy track. Before that she ran fourth at Forbes and third at Wyong over this trip. The form is rock-solid consistent, and she's had four first-up runs for two seconds. Jack Martin takes the ride and the blinkers stay on.
But here's where it gets interesting. Costalivin from the Matthew Dale stable hasn't raced since May last year, but she won a Canberra trial over 900m in her most recent hit-out. Before that she ran seventh at Goulburn in a trial. She's resuming off a 150-day spell, and they're throwing winkers on her for the first time. The speed map has her settling dead last from barrier six, which is a concern in a race with limited speed. This looks like a horse that's going to need the run.
Rogue Nation has only had one start for a third at Wagga over 1000m, beaten 3.3 lengths. But he's won a Goulburn trial over 800m since then, just ten days ago. This Danny Williams gelding maps to settle midfield and has shown enough in trials to suggest he's ready to go. The query is the step up to 1200m first-up.
Inna Zou has been placed three times from five starts and ran third at Nowra last time over 1400m, beaten just 1.2 lengths on a Soft track. She's been thereabouts without winning, and the drop back to 1200m could suit. Jessica Brookes claims 2kg which gets her down to 56kg, and she's drawn barrier one. That's a decent set-up.
Thegirlfromdarcy ran second here at Goulburn over 1100m first-up back in November, and this is her fresh return after 41 days. The Matthew Dale mare has shown she can run well fresh and the home track advantage is a bonus.
The form line through Initiate is the strongest here. She's been competitive in every start and the Heavy track win from her last opponent suggests she's going the right way. Rogue Nation is the value play if you think the trial win translates, but Initiate looks the one to beat.
The Lightly-Raced Savabeel Takes On The Trial Stars
Right, this Class 1 over 1200m has some serious depth for the grade. Go Commando is the class runner on paper. This Danielle Seib gelding by Savabeel has had just two starts for a win and two thirds. He won at Albury over 1175m on a Soft track, then ran third at Orange behind Sunday beaten just 0.3 lengths, and most recently ran third in a Goulburn trial. Keagan Latham takes the ride, they're throwing a tongue tie on for the first time, and he maps to settle back from barrier eight. The breeding suggests he'll handle this, but there's not much form to go on.
Cruizingthestars is the favourite for Scott Collings, and I can see why the market likes her. She won here at Goulburn last start over 1100m on a Soft track, and before that she'd been placed twice in trials. She's had just one start and she bolted in at short odds. The query is whether she can handle the step up in grade, but she's proven on this track in these conditions. From barrier ten she'll settle back, but Pierre Boudvillain knows how to ride these races.
Tassalina is another lightly-raced type from the Todd Smart stable. She won at Wagga last start over 1000m on a Good track, and before that ran second in a Canberra trial. She's only had one start, so we're taking it on trust that she can step up, but the form of that Wagga maiden looks solid. Andrew Adkins is a big booking.
Anladio won at Orange over 1400m last start on a Soft track after a 151-day spell, winning by a nose. Before that he'd been unplaced at Leeton. He's resuming here after another long break, and they're throwing bar plates on for the first time. The form's light and the long spells are a concern.
Royal Memory ran second at Canberra over 1200m last start beaten just 0.16 lengths, and she's got form at this distance with a win and two placings from five goes. The blinkers stay on and she maps to settle midfield. She's a genuine winning chance at longer odds.
This race comes down to whether you trust the lightly-raced types with big reputations or the horses with more exposed form. Cruizingthestars has won on this track in these conditions and gets the favouritism on that basis. Go Commando is the quality runner with the breeding to suggest he's got upside. Tassalina is the value play if the Wagga form stacks up. I'm leaning towards Cruizingthestars because she's done it here before, but Go Commando is the danger with the right run.
The Perpetual Bridesmaid Finally Gets Her Day
Bloody hell, look at the form on Tigletta. This Bjorn Baker filly has run third in five of her six starts, including three thirds from her last three runs. She ran third at Wyong beaten 1.5 lengths, third at Gosford beaten 0.9 lengths, and third at Wyong again beaten just 0.45 lengths. She's been competitive in every single start and has drawn barrier ten, which maps her to settle back and run on. Brock Ryan takes the ride and they're throwing a tongue tie on for the first time. This filly is absolutely crying out to win a race, and this looks like her chance.
Gamp from the powerful Michael, John & Wayne Hawkes stable is the favourite, and she's got four placings from 14 starts. She won a Rosehill maiden trial last start, and before that ran fourth at Rosehill and fourth at Wyong. The form is consistent without being spectacular, and she's had 14 starts without winning on race day. That's a concern. She maps to settle back from barrier six and will need luck in running.
Very Sirius is a David Pfieffer filly that won a Hawkesbury trial over 800m last start, and before that ran third at Warwick Farm. She's resuming here and has never raced beyond 900m, so the 1100m is a query. The breeding by Zoustar out of a Fastnet Rock mare suggests she'll get this, but she maps to settle last from barrier five, which is a worry in a race with moderate pace.
Uber In won a Warwick Farm trial over 817m last start for Richard Litt, and before that ran third and second in trials. She's had just three starts for a second placing and maps to settle midfield from barrier nine. The blinkers come off for the first time, which is interesting. She's a genuine chance if the gear change works.
Over The Limit ran third at Nowra last start over 1100m beaten 6.2 lengths, which doesn't read brilliantly. Before that she ran fifth at Kembla Grange and second at Nowra over 1000m. The form is mixed and she maps to settle last. I'm not convinced.
Master Yoda is a Richard Litt gelding having his first start. He's had four barrier trials with a fourth, seventh, fourth and sixth. They're throwing blinkers, ear muffs and a lugging bit on him first-up, which suggests they're trying to find the key. He maps to settle last, which is a concern.
The standout here is Tigletta. Five thirds from six starts tells you she's competitive every time she races. The tongue tie goes on for the first time, which might be the difference. Gamp is the danger as the favourite, but 14 starts without a race win is a massive red flag. Uber In is the value play with the gear change, but Tigletta looks ready to break through.
The Market's Got This Feature All Wrong
Right, this is the feature race over 1300m and I reckon the market has completely missed the mark. Sir Franklin is the favourite for Lauren Davies, and look, I can see the appeal. He's won three from eight including two wins here at Goulburn, and he ran fourth at Randwick last start over 1000m on a Soft track. Before that he won a Goulburn trial. But here's my issue: he's never won beyond 1200m, and this is 1300m. He's also jumping from 1000m to 1300m, which is a fair step. The form's there, but the price is all wrong.
Ghost Walker is the horse everyone's overlooking. This Danielle Seib gelding has an elite record at Goulburn: four starts for two wins and two seconds. Over 1300m at this track, he's got three starts for two wins and a second. Last start he ran second at Wagga over 1200m beaten just 0.35 lengths, and before that ran third in a Canberra trial. He's coming back to his pet track and distance, and the form is rock-solid. The concern is he's had 21 days between runs, but that's not excessive.
Highway Strip is another Danny Williams runner with strong Goulburn form. He's had two starts here for two seconds, including over this 1300m trip. Last start he ran sixth at Rosehill over 1300m, which isn't flash, but before that he ran ninth at Randwick and fourth at Randwick in Benchmark 78 grade. He's dropping back in class here and maps to settle midfield from barrier ten. The form line is there if you squint at it.
Prince Harrison won a Warwick Farm trial over 800m last start and before that ran fifth at Newcastle over 1300m. He's resuming here after 37 days and has a win and a placing from nine starts. The form's light and he maps to settle back, which is a concern.
Faceoff is the only runner showing genuine early speed according to the pace map, which could be crucial. He ran fifth at Wyong and sixth at Kembla Grange in his last two, but before that won at Moruya over 1200m. If he can control the tempo from the front, he's a chance, but the form has dropped away recently.
Party Doll ran third here at Goulburn last start over 1200m beaten 2.35 lengths, and she's got form at this track. The concern is she's never won beyond 1200m and this is 1300m. Rochelle Wedrat-kroezen claims 3kg which gets her down to 61kg.
The standout for mine is Ghost Walker. His Goulburn record is elite, and he's proven at this exact track and distance combination. The market's got him at mid-range odds, which is ridiculous given his course form. Sir Franklin is vulnerable at short odds given the distance query, and Highway Strip is the value play if you think the class drop brings him back to his best. But I'm all over Ghost Walker here. This is his track.
The Patient Punter's Reward Over 1400m
This maiden over 1400m is wide open, but there's one horse that stands out on exposed form. Buckeye from the John O'shea & Tom Charlton stable has had eight starts for four seconds and a third. Last start he ran second at Kembla Grange over 1300m beaten just 0.2 lengths, and before that ran third at Warwick Farm over 1200m. He's been placed four times in his last five starts, and the blinkers stay on. Keagan Latham takes the ride and he maps to settle back from barrier eleven. The breeding by Zousain out of a More Than Ready mare suggests he'll get this 1400m trip, and the form is screaming that he's ready to win.
No Verdict is a Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott gelding that ran third at Wyong last start over 1200m beaten 2.2 lengths on a Soft track. Before that he ran fifth at Nowra on a Heavy track. He's had just three starts with a third placing and maps to settle back. The Waterhouse/Bott team know how to place a horse, so you can't dismiss him.
So Superior has had 15 starts for a second and four thirds, which tells you he's competitive without being a winner. Last start he ran sixth at Wyong over 1600m, and before that ran third at Gosford over 1600m. The form is honest and the blinkers stay on. He's got experience at this trip with form at Goulburn, but 15 starts without winning is a concern.
Mean As is a Ciaron Maher gelding that ran sixth at Hawkesbury last start over 1500m, and before that ran fourth at Wyong over 1200m. He's had just three starts with no wins or placings, so the form is light. He maps to settle last from barrier ten.
Anyone from the Chris Waller stable has had just two starts with no wins or placings. She ran fifth at Randwick last start over 1050m just four days ago, which is a quick backup. The breeding by I Am Invincible out of Unforgotten suggests she's got ability, but the form hasn't shown it yet.
Mr Crowning Moment has had 13 starts for two seconds and two thirds, and last start ran 11th at Wagga beaten 6.7 lengths. The form has dropped away and he's drawn wide in barrier 13. Hard to make a case.
The standout here is Buckeye. Four placings from his last five starts, including a narrow second last time, tells you he's ready to win. The breeding suggests he'll get the 1400m, and Keagan Latham is a top booking. No Verdict is the danger with the Waterhouse/Bott polish, but Buckeye looks the most trustworthy runner in this field.
The Metropolitan Form Holds The Key At 1100m
This Benchmark 58 over 1100m shapes as a cracking race, and I reckon Silver Serenade is the one they've all got to beat. This Danny Williams filly has had seven starts for a win, a second and three thirds. Last start she ran ninth at Randwick over 1000m on a Soft track, which doesn't read brilliantly, but before that she ran second here at Goulburn over 1100m beaten just 0.35 lengths. That's outstanding form at this track and distance. Before that she ran fourth at Rosehill in Benchmark 72 grade and third at Moruya. The form line is strong, she's proven at this track and trip, and Pierre Boudvillain takes the ride from barrier two. She maps to settle back, but in a race with limited speed that might not matter.
Quein Step is the favourite for Ciaron Maher, and she's got strong Goulburn form with four starts here for a win, two seconds and a third. Last start she ran fourth at Newcastle over 900m on a Good track, and before that ran second at Wyong and third at Beaumont in trials. The form is consistent and she's proven at this track, but the query is the step up to 1100m. She's never won beyond 1000m, and that's a concern.
Bivacco is another Ciaron Maher runner that won at Canberra last start over 1000m on a Good track. Before that he ran fourth at Gosford and second at Canberra. He's had five starts for a win and a second, and the form is building nicely. The concern is the step up to 1100m and the Soft track, as he's never raced on anything softer than Good.
Wandaye from the Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou stable has Goulburn form with a second here over 1400m. Last start she ran sixth at Rosehill over 900m, which isn't flash, but before that ran ninth at Hawkesbury and second at Goulburn. The form is mixed and she maps to settle midfield.
Mystic Air won at Orange last start over 1000m on a Good track, but that was her first start. She's completely untried beyond 1000m and has never raced on a Soft track. That's too many queries for mine.
Liubov maps to settle on the pace from barrier six, which could be crucial in a race with limited speed. She won at Canberra over 1000m back in November and ran fifth in two Warwick Farm trials since. The form's light and she's resuming, but if she can control the tempo she's a chance.
Dancing Man won at Nowra last start over 1100m on a Soft track, which is the right form line. But that was a maiden, and this is a big step up in grade. Dale Cole claims 2kg which helps, but I'm not convinced he's up to this level yet.
The form line through Silver Serenade is the strongest here. She's proven at this track and distance, and her metropolitan form in Benchmark 72 grade suggests she's got class. Quein Step is the danger as the favourite with strong Goulburn form, but the distance query is real. Bivacco is the value play if you think the Canberra win translates, but Silver Serenade looks the most trustworthy runner in this field.
Where I Stand
Right punters, let me lay it out straight. The horse with the strongest case on this entire card is Ghost Walker in Race 5. That Goulburn record is elite: four starts for two wins and two seconds, including two wins and a second from three goes at this exact 1300m trip. The market's got him at mid-range odds while backing Sir Franklin who's never won beyond 1200m. That's madness. Ghost Walker returning to his pet track and distance is the play of the day for mine.
In Race 4, Tigletta has run third in five of her six starts and is absolutely crying out to break through. The tongue tie goes on for the first time, and this looks like her race. I'd be genuinely surprised if she didn't figure in the finish.
Buckeye in Race 6 is another one that's been knocking on the door with four placings from eight starts. Last start he was beaten just 0.2 lengths at Kembla Grange, and the form says he's ready to win. The breeding suggests he'll get the 1400m trip, and Keagan Latham is a top booking.
In Race 7, Silver Serenade has the strongest form line with that narrow Goulburn second over this trip and metropolitan form in Benchmark 72 grade. She's the class runner dropping back to this level.
The race I'm most cautious about is Race 1 over 2140m. The lack of speed makes it a tactical nightmare, but Tavijewel's distance credentials make him the most trustworthy runner if you're having a go.
Look, I'm not saying these horses are certainties, but the form points strongly towards them being the runners with the strongest cases in their respective races. The market's got several of these wrong, particularly Ghost Walker, and that's where the value lies.
