This 1000m maiden has slow pace written all over it, which immediately makes me nervous about anything needing the run of the race. The favourite Sapphire Reign has been sent out favourite despite doing very little in two starts, finishing fifth at Bendigo on a Heavy 8 behind Leongatha and fourth at Seymour. I'm not convinced that form is anywhere near good enough for this grade, and at short odds I'd be genuinely shocked if that's the winner.

Smart And Mighty is the top pick according to the data and I can see why. Eight starts for two seconds and a third suggests he's been knocking on the door, and the form out of that Albury third where he finished 4.56 lengths behind Sizzleist looks solid enough. The gear changes are significant, stripping off the lugging bit, nose roll, tongue control bit and tongue tie while keeping the blinkers. That's Mervyn McKenzie saying 'let's simplify this'. From barrier one with Tom Madden, there's merit here.

Crickwood is short in the market despite being first-up from a 240-day spell and having just one career start for a tenth at Warracknabeal. The Zoustar filly has John Allen on, which commands respect, but I need to see more than a trial form line to get excited at those odds.

The other one I'm watching is Divine Reine, a Trapeze Artist filly making her debut for Nell Carter. Won an Avoca 800m jumpout and has placed in three others. First-time ear muffs and tongue tie suggest they're taking this seriously, but it's a complete unknown.

This doesn't excite me at all and I'm happy to move on. If forced, Smart And Mighty has the form credentials, but at longer odds in a maiden I'm not convinced anyone has this worked out.

This is where I'm planting my flag. Ballynacally is rated 70 and has won three of five starts with two seconds. That's an elite strike rate. She won at Terang last time over 1000m, before that she was beaten a nose at Warracknabeal over 1200m by Swifties, and before that she won at Geelong and Casterton. This is a mare who simply knows how to win, and she's fresh after 83 days which has proven a successful pattern (two starts first-up for a win and a second).

The step to 1100m is no issue given she's won twice at 1200m, and from barrier two with Linda Meech aboard, she maps to get a perfect run. The first-time front bandages are a minor query, but nothing that concerns me greatly. At favourite money, I think this is the horse to beat and I'd be genuinely surprised if anything could beat her.

Silver Cliff is the main danger on paper. The Nicconi mare has won four from 18 and was competitive in BM78 grade at Caulfield last preparation, finishing ninth behind Bossy Benita. That's stronger form than this, but she's first-up from 205 days and while she's won fresh before (one from three), I'm not sweet on backing a horse returning from that long off into a Soft 5 when her wet track record is mixed (two wins from eight on soft).

Thailess has been thereabouts without winning lately, running third at Seymour behind Ka Ying Cheer over this trip 17 days ago. That form looks solid, but seven career runs at 1100m for zero wins and three placings tells me this horse is more honest than brilliant. Craig Newitt takes the ride which is a positive, but I think he's chasing the winner home.

Sardonian at longer odds is one for the exotics. Won here last preparation over 1700m and ran second at Colac over 1110m two back. The 1.5kg claim from Ryan Houston gets him in light at 56.5kg, and if there's a roughie I'd prefer it's this one rather than Triomphe who has been absolutely terrible lately.

The form horse is Ballynacally and I couldn't be more convinced. This looks absurdly overs if she's not favourite.

A 2350m maiden is always going to throw up some challenges, and this is no exception with several lightly-raced stayers looking for their first win. The pace map suggests this will be slow, which doesn't help closers, so positioning will be crucial.

Phoenician is the form horse here and it's not particularly close. He's run second in his last five starts across 2500m, 2720m, 2500m (again), 2400m and 2440m. That's relentless consistency at the trip, and the margins are getting tighter. He was beaten just 0.2 lengths at Pakenham over 2500m last start by Rapido River, and before that he ran second to High Heeled at Werribee over 2720m. This is a horse who is crying out for a win, and with Brad Rawiller aboard, I think this is the day.

The market has Zinovation as favourite and I can see the appeal. The Price/Kent gelding has run second twice in his last three starts, including a second at Seymour over 2200m behind I Belong by six lengths. That's not great, but he was also second at Geelong twice before that over 2460m and 2240m. First-time blinkers go on which suggests they think there's improvement to find. From barrier seven with Jack Hill, he'll need some luck but the stable commands respect.

Finance Merchant is short in the market for a horse having his first crack at this distance. The Merchant Navy gelding has run two seconds from four starts, most recently beaten a length at Horsham over 1800m by Fully Justified. That's a nice run, but stepping from 1800m to 2350m is a significant jump and I'm not convinced he stays. If he does, he's a threat, but I'd want to see it first.

I Am Bongino is trained by the Hawkes stable and has John Allen on, which is enough to keep him safe. He ran fourth at Seymour over 2200m behind I Belong by 7.95 lengths, which is similar form to Zinovation but further back. I'm not convinced the form is strong enough.

Phoenician has knocked on the door too many times and with five seconds from his last five, the law of averages says he's due. I think he's the horse with the strongest case and I'd be backing him with confidence.

Another maiden and another race where I'm not bursting with confidence. The favourite Le Beau Gosse is unraced for Symon Wilde and makes his debut with first-time winkers. He won a Camperdown 1000m jumpout and ran third at Geelong behind The Botany Frog by 0.9 lengths in a recent trial. That's nice form, but it's a trial and I need more than that to get excited at short odds. Dylan Dunn takes the ride which is a positive, but I'm not convinced this is the standout.

Zercardy ran third at Ararat over 1100m last start behind Snappy Beau by 2.5 lengths. That's solid form and he's had one start for a placing, which suggests he's ready to improve. John Allen is on for Maddie Raymond and Patrick Bell, and from barrier eight he'll need some luck. I think this is a live chance but I'd prefer him at longer odds.

Foxwedge Arrow is interesting coming back from a 212-day spell with first-time blinkers. He ran fifth at Mildura twice last preparation over 1409m and 1200m, beaten 3.57 lengths and 2.25 lengths respectively. That's not setting the world on fire, but the blinkers might sharpen him up. Kylie Vella has him ready and the gear change is significant.

Back Of The Boat is the top pick according to the data and I can see why. He's had 14 starts for a second and has been competitive on soft ground before, running fourth at Wangaratta over 1300m behind Highly Intrigued by less than a length. That's solid form and he's racing at a track where he's had three starts. The problem is he's also had 10 runs for no wins, which tells me he's limited.

I'm not sweet on any of these with great confidence. Le Beau Gosse is the favourite for a reason, but I'd be surprised if this is a strong form race. If Zercardy gets the right run from John Allen, he's the one I'd prefer at longer odds, but this is a race I'm happy to watch rather than get involved in.

A 1400m three-year-old maiden on soft ground, and once again we're dealing with limited speed which will make this tactical. Half Scotch is the top-rated runner and I think she's the one to beat. She's had six starts for three placings, including a third here at Warrnambool over 1400m on soft ground behind Miss Revealing by 6.5 lengths. That's not brilliant, but she's also run third at Hamilton over 1400m on soft behind My Uncle Did It by 1.5 lengths, and she won at Geelong over 1000m last start. That form has been franked, and with Craig Newitt aboard, she maps to get a good run from barrier eight.

The market favourite Till Queen ran second at Terang last start over 1406m behind Beautifully by 0.75 lengths. That's a nice run and she's clearly going the right way, but she's had four starts for one second which suggests she's still learning. Declan Bates takes the ride for Archie Alexander, and from barrier 12 she'll need some luck. I think she's a threat but I'd prefer Half Scotch at the odds.

Impulsive Reaction is unraced and makes his debut for Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young with first-time blinkers and tongue tie. The Shamus Award gelding has placed in trials but I need to see more than that to get excited. Linda Meech is a positive but I'm not backing a debutant at short odds in a maiden.

Bobbin Back has been competitive over this distance before, running second at Casterton over 1400m on soft ground behind Look At Mego by two lengths. That's not terrible form, but she's also run ninth at Terang last start which suggests she's inconsistent. I'm not convinced.

Half Scotch is the most consistent runner in this field and with experience at the track and distance on soft ground, I think she's the horse to beat. Craig Newitt is a big positive and I'd be surprised if she didn't figure in the finish.

This is a fascinating race with nine likely leaders according to the pace map, which sets up perfectly for something coming from off the speed. The problem is there aren't many genuine closers in this field, so it's going to be a war up front and whoever handles it best will win.

Jet Jitsu is the one I'm most interested in. He won at Echuca over 1412m on soft ground by 3.5 lengths last preparation, and while he's been disappointing since (11th at Terang last start), he's fresh from a 17-day break and maps to get a perfect run from barrier one with Linda Meech. His record at 1400m is two wins from 13 starts, which isn't brilliant, but on soft ground he's won two from eight. I think he's better than his last run suggests and at longer odds, he's the value.

The favourite Inherently ran third at Ballarat last start behind Zeshadow by a length over 1600m. That's solid form and he's won before at Terang over 1606m in BM64 grade. The problem is he's racing at 64kg and while he's won fresh before, I'm not convinced he's good enough to overcome this field at short odds. Brad Rawiller is a positive but I think he's overs.

Habitein is an interesting runner returning from a 213-day spell. He won at Hamilton last preparation over 1600m on heavy ground by 1.5 lengths, and before that he ran third at Mount Gambier over 1814m on heavy. The problem is he's racing first-up and while he's placed fresh before, I need to see him do it again. First-time ear muffs suggest they're taking this seriously, and Tom Madden is a big positive. I think he's a threat but I'd prefer him at longer odds.

Morgana is short in the market for a horse who has been terrible lately, running eighth and 10th at Caulfield in her last two starts. She won at Mount Gambier before that but I'm not convinced that form is strong enough for this grade. First-time tongue tie is a query and I'm not sweet on her at all.

The Daily Planet ran second at Colac last start over 1600m on soft ground behind Cryptic Clue by 0.4 lengths. That's a nice run and he's clearly in form, but he's racing at 55kg which suggests the handicapper doesn't rate him highly. I think he's one for the exotics but I'm not backing him to win.

With nine likely leaders, this is going to be a war up front. Jet Jitsu maps to get the perfect run from barrier one and I think he's the value at longer odds. If he runs up to his Echuca win, he's winning this.

A 2350m staying race on soft ground and this is all about Off His Roca. He's won three times at this track from seven starts and has placed here six times. That's a phenomenal record, and he won here last start over 2400m on soft ground. The form is there, the track specialist angle is there, and Linda Meech is on. I think this is the horse to beat and I'd be surprised if anything could beat him.

The favourite Flashlight ran fifth at Wangaratta last start over 2000m behind Pink Chandon by 4.45 lengths. That's not terrible form, but it's also not good enough to beat Off His Roca at this track. He's won twice from 17 starts and while he's competitive, I'm not convinced he's good enough to overcome the track specialist. Billy Egan is a positive but I think he's chasing the winner home.

Vellasglory won at Stony Creek last start over 2100m on soft ground, which is nice form, but stepping up to this grade is a significant jump. He's won twice from 12 starts which suggests he's limited, and while the soft track is a positive, I'm not convinced he's good enough to beat Off His Roca.

Cousins Day won at Terang last start over 2156m in BM56 grade, which is solid form, but stepping up to BM62 is a jump. She's trained by Symon Wilde which commands respect, and Dylan Dunn is a positive. I think she's one for the exotics but I'm not backing her to beat Off His Roca.

Count Zero is an 11-year-old gelding who has won four times at this track from 13 starts. That's a solid record, but he's also had 65 career starts which suggests he's been around the block. He ran third last start over 2800m on soft ground behind Topspin by 40 lengths, which is terrible form. I'm not convinced he's competitive here.

Off His Roca is the track specialist and I think this is his race to lose. The soft ground is perfect, the distance is perfect, and Linda Meech is perfect. I'd be genuinely shocked if he didn't win this.