The weather gods have been kind to Morphettville today, with a Good 4 track presenting for what shapes as a solid card headlined by the Adelaide Cup. There's no wind to speak of and the rail is in the true position, which should see the track play fair throughout the afternoon. I'm looking forward to dissecting some genuinely interesting staying form in the Cup, and the three-year-old features later in the day have thrown up some nice angles.
Berkeley Square The Class Act In Muddling Affair
This is a proper staying test over two miles, but I have serious concerns about the pace scenario. Chance Taken is the only horse with any genuine early speed, which means we're looking at a crawl for the first half of the race. That's a problem for anything trying to close, and it tilts the race towards those who can sit handy and have a sprint.
Berkeley Square is the horse I think they all have to beat. The six-year-old gelding by Territories won over 2500m at Flemington last start by a comfortable margin, and that form looks rock solid. The runner-up in that race was Dictionary, who ran fifth in the same race and is 5.5 lengths behind on that form line. More importantly, Berkeley Square had previously run third behind Suntora at Caulfield over 2000m, and Suntora is a genuine Group-level performer. The step to 3200m is the question, but he's never raced beyond 2600m and won over 2500m, so the distance shouldn't be an issue. Luke Nolen takes the ride and the 59.5kg is manageable. The Norton Bit goes on for the first time, which suggests connections are looking for a bit more control early, and that makes sense in what will be a slowly run race.
Newfoundland is the one the market seems to like, but I'm not convinced. Yes, he's a Deep Impact gelding trained by Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott, and yes, he gets in light at 54kg. But his last start was ninth in that same Flemington race won by Berkeley Square, beaten over five lengths. The win before that was at Warwick Farm over 2400m in a field of six, which isn't telling me much. He's placed at this track and distance before, which is a positive, but the form lines through that Flemington race have him well behind the favourite. The light weight is attractive, but I think the class gap is too big.
Highland Bling ran a nose second to Eventually over 2600m here last start, which is strong form for this grade. The five-year-old by Highland Reel is lightly raced with just 15 starts, and he's clearly going the right way. That race was run in a decent tempo and he closed well, so the slow pace here is a concern. But at 53kg with Lachlan Neindorf on, he's a genuine chance if there's enough tempo. I'm just not sure there will be.
Eventually won that 2600m race here 16 days ago at huge odds, and before that had won twice at Morphettville Parks over 2400m and 2500m. The seven-year-old mare clearly loves this track, with six starts here producing two wins and a placing. But she's never tackled 3200m, and I think the step up 600m from her last win is significant. The form is there, but I'm not sure she sees it out.
Hurry Curry is an interesting runner from the Danny O'brien stable. The four-year-old mare won over 2400m at Sandown Hillside on a Soft track 12 days ago, and before that ran sixth to Ambassadorial over 2000m at Caulfield. That Sandown win was in Benchmark 74 grade, which is a fair way below this. The step to 3200m first-up at this trip is a massive query, and while the light weight helps, I think this is too tough.
I'm going with Berkeley Square as the one with the strongest case. The form is there, the class is there, and the slow pace should suit his racing pattern. Highland Bling is the danger if the pace is honest, but I think Berkeley Square has too much class for this field.
Air Assault Faces Tough Assignment Under Big Weight
This is a muddling affair with no clear speed, which makes it difficult to be confident about anything. The lack of tempo means it's likely to turn into a sprint home, and that favours horses with tactical speed who can position close to the pace.
Air Assault is the short-priced favourite, and I can see why. The five-year-old gelding has a terrific record at this track with seven wins from 20 starts, and he's won three times over this 1600m trip here. Last start he ran sixth at Flemington over 1600m behind Birdman, beaten 3.4 lengths, which is ordinary form. But two starts back he won at Gawler over 1000m, and before that ran seventh at Caulfield. The form is a bit mixed, and the 60kg is a concern. Jason Holder knows the horse well, but I think the weight is going to make it tough in what shapes as a slowly run mile.
Arran Bay is the horse I'm most interested in. The seven-year-old gelding ran second over this track and distance last start, beaten less than a length by Regal Azmon. That was good form, and he's got a solid record at the trip with three wins and four placings from 11 starts at 1600m. The gear changes are interesting with blinkers going on for the first time, which suggests connections are looking for more from him. Jamie Melham is a strong booking, and the 59.5kg is workable. I think he's the value in the race.
Bamyan Buddha won here over 1600m in Benchmark 80 grade last start, which is solid form. The seven-year-old gelding has a good record at this track with four wins from 21 starts, and he clearly handles the mile. The concern is the apprentice claiming 3kg, which puts Brooke King on, and I'm not sure that's an advantage in a race like this where positioning will be crucial.
Miss Aria is the other market fancy, and I can see the appeal. The five-year-old mare by Zoustar won at Sandown Hillside over 900m two starts back, but that was a field of five and doesn't tell me much. Last start she ran sixth at Caulfield over 1400m, beaten three lengths, which is moderate. The drop to 55kg is attractive, but I'm not convinced the form is strong enough.
A Samurai Mind has won twice at this track over 1600m, which is a positive. The five-year-old gelding won at Morphettville over 1050m last start in Benchmark 70+ grade, which is solid without being spectacular. He's clearly in form, but I think there are horses with stronger cases.
I think Arran Bay is the best value in the race. The form is there, the blinkers going on is a positive change, and the weight is manageable. Air Assault is the danger, but I think the 60kg is a real concern in a slowly run race.
Dirty Old Town Too Good For These
This looks a straightforward assignment for Dirty Old Town. The three-year-old filly has won her last two starts, both at this track, including a win over this 1600m trip last time. She's unbeaten at the distance with a win and a placing from two starts, and she's clearly going the right way.
The most recent win came over 1400m at Morphettville Parks on a Soft track nine days ago, where she won a Benchmark 72 race. Before that she won over this 1600m trip in Class 2 grade, beating a field of 14. That form is strong for this level, and I think she's got too much class for these.
Uptown Monk is the danger. The three-year-old gelding won at Oakbank over 1050m four days ago, and before that won at Strathalbyn over 1200m in maiden grade. The step to 1600m is a query, as he's never tackled the trip, but he's clearly in form. The concern is the lack of experience, with just two starts, and I think that's going to count against him here.
Cannae is an interesting runner from the Danny O'brien stable. The three-year-old gelding won a maiden at Caulfield Heath over 1500m last start, which is solid form. Before that he ran fourth at Sandown Hillside in a maiden, so he's clearly improving. The cross-over nose band goes on for the first time, and Jamie Melham takes the ride. I think he's a chance, but I'm not sure he's good enough to beat Dirty Old Town.
Bootlegger ran third last start over 1400m at Morphettville Parks, beaten a neck behind Dirty Old Town. That form line is clear, and while he's clearly in the race, I can't see him turning that form around on the same weight.
The pace scenario has Crespiano and Starfleet Command likely to lead, which should set up a fair tempo. That suits Dirty Old Town, who can sit midfield and run home strongly.
I think Dirty Old Town wins this comfortably. The form is too strong, and she's proven at the track and distance. Cannae is the best of the rest, but I'd be surprised if anything beats the favourite.
Chico Casino The Value In Muddling Affair
This is a moderate Benchmark 58 at Cowra on a Soft 6 track, and with no clear speed it's going to be a messy race. The lack of tempo means it's likely to come down to which horse can find the best position and have something left at the end.
Glowing Rapids is the favourite, and I can see why based on recent form. The five-year-old gelding has run three thirds in his last four starts, including a third at Dubbo over 1300m last start beaten 1.4 lengths. Before that he won at Narromine over 1100m in Benchmark 66 grade, which is above this level. The 62kg is a concern though, especially with the apprentice Deon Le Roux claiming 3kg to get down to 59kg. I'm not convinced that's enough to offset the weight.
Hammering Away has won at this track before over 1200m, which is a positive. The five-year-old gelding ran 13th last start at Mudgee, which is terrible form, but two starts back he won at Flemington over 2520m in Benchmark 78 grade. The form is all over the place, and I'm not sure what to make of him. The 61.5kg is a concern.
Chico Casino is the horse I like best in this race. The five-year-old gelding has a good record at the distance with two wins and a placing from 11 starts at 1200m, and he's raced at this track twice before with a placing. Last start he ran third at Orange over 1000m on a Heavy track, which is solid form. Before that he ran seventh here over 1200m, beaten less than two lengths, which suggests he's not far away. The 60.5kg after Zac Wadick's claim is workable, and I think he's the value in the race.
Crucial Witness is an interesting runner with a good record at the distance, but the form is moderate with a sixth at Braidwood last start. I'm not convinced she's good enough.
I think Chico Casino is the best bet in this race. The form is consistent, the track and distance record is solid, and the weight is manageable. Glowing Rapids is the danger, but I think the weight will count against him.
Vicious Rumour Ready To Break Through
This is a Class 1 event at Cowra over 1375m on a Soft track, and it's another race with limited speed that's going to turn into a sprint home.
The Contractor won a maiden at Mudgee over 1200m on a Soft track 16 days ago, which is solid form for a first-up runner. Before that he ran second at Dubbo in a maiden, beaten half a length by Vicious Rumour. That form line is interesting, and I think it's going to be relevant here.
Hey Jude is the favourite from the Bjorn Baker stable, and I can see the appeal. The four-year-old mare won at Nowra over 1200m on a Heavy track last start, which is strong form. Before that she ran sixth at Kembla Grange, beaten 2.7 lengths, which is moderate. The concern is the lack of experience with just seven starts, and I'm not sure she's ready for this step up in grade.
Vicious Rumour is the horse I think has the strongest case. The four-year-old mare has run second in her last three starts, including a third last start at Muswellbrook on a Heavy track. Before that she won a maiden at Dubbo, beating The Contractor by half a length. Two starts back she ran second here over this 1375m trip, beaten just over a length in a maiden. The form is consistent, and I think she's ready to break through. Chad Lever takes the ride for Michael Mulholland, and the 58kg is workable.
Splendid Magnus won at Orange over 1400m on a Heavy track last start, which is solid form. The three-year-old filly has a good record at this track with a placing from one start at this distance. The concern is the lack of experience with just five starts, but she's clearly improving.
I think Vicious Rumour is the one to beat. The form is consistent, she's proven at the track and distance, and she looks ready to win after three consecutive placings. The Contractor is the danger on that form line from Dubbo, but I think Vicious Rumour turns that form around with the track and distance advantage.
Where I Stand
The strongest case on the card belongs to Berkeley Square in the Adelaide Cup. The form through that Flemington win is rock solid, and I think he's got too much class for this field despite the slow pace concerns. The Norton Bit going on for the first time is interesting, and I think it's a positive move to help him settle in what will be a muddling race.
At the other end of the spectrum, I'd be genuinely surprised if Dirty Old Town didn't win the Morphettville Guineas. She's won her last two starts at this track, including over this distance, and the form is simply too strong for these. The opposition doesn't stack up on any measure.
For value, I think Arran Bay in the Hayes Memorial Cup is the most interesting proposition. The blinkers going on for the first time after that narrow second here last start suggests connections think there's more to come, and I agree. The weight is manageable and I think he's overs in the market.
At Cowra, Vicious Rumour looks ready to break through after three consecutive placings. The track and distance form is there, and I think she's the one with the strongest case in that Class 1 Handicap over 1375m.
