This is all about Oxy Bolt for me, and I think the market has this badly wrong. He's got three placings from four starts at Devonport Synthetic including a second over this exact 1350m trip when beaten two lengths by Tizsa Nice Drop back in November. That form has been franked since, and he's returning fresh from a break with Catherine Van Munster claiming 3kg off his back from the inside gate. His last start was admittedly poor, finishing fifth at Longford over 1800m and beaten 26 lengths, but that was clearly too far for him and he's much better suited back to this distance.

Rippington is short in the market but I'm not convinced at all. He's had five starts for no wins and was beaten 5.5 lengths in a three-horse race here last week over 800m. Yes, that was his first run back, but if you can't be competitive in a field of three, why should I think you're suddenly going to dominate a field of six? His Queensland form is littered with double-digit margins, and stepping up to 1350m first-up doesn't fill me with confidence.

Genuine Lady is the favourite and I can see why on paper. She was only beaten 2.86 lengths at Launceston last start over 1400m, and before that ran a close third at Longford over 800m. But she's 0 from 7 and has never won a race. She maps to be caught wide from barrier four, and I think there's a difference between running placings and actually knowing how to win.

Awesome Orphan is the other short-priced runner and has some Devonport form, but she's also winless from three starts and was beaten four lengths at Launceston last time. Go Woody has been tried everywhere including Victoria and hasn't fired a shot, while Grim Trigger is 0 from 5 and maps to lead, which might set it up for others but he's shown nothing to suggest he can hold on.

The pace looks genuine with Grim Trigger likely to roll forward, which should set it up perfectly for Oxy Bolt to settle handy and run over the top of them. I think he's the horse with the strongest case here and I'd be genuinely surprised if he doesn't run a big race fresh.

Strato Ken is the clear standout here and I think this race is his to lose. He ran third at Launceston last start over 1100m, beaten 3.25 lengths by Rushonova, but before that he was desperately unlucky at Hobart when beaten a nose over 1200m by Tribal Council. That horse has since won again, which franks the form nicely. Two starts back he won a trial here at Devonport over 800m, so he knows the surface, and Jabez Johnstone gets on with the 1.5kg claim.

Geegees Mercedes is the favourite and has been knocking on the door with consistent placings, including a second at Hobart last time when beaten 0.75 lengths over 1000m. She's placed six times from eight starts, but I keep coming back to the fact she hasn't won yet. She's got the right form profile for this distance, but I think Strato Ken has more upside.

Dina Tycoon won a Longford 800m race last start which sounds good until you realise it was against six runners, and before that she'd been well beaten in Victoria. The gear comes off here with blinkers and tongue tie removed, which could be a positive or a negative depending on how you read it. Francium also won last start over 800m here, but again it was only a three-horse race and she'd been smashed by 11.5 lengths at Swan Hill before that.

Nunkeri is trained by Adam Trinder and ran fourth at Longford last time over 800m. She's 0 from 3 but has been competitive in her recent trials. Light Work has been given a long break and returns fresh with new gear including winkers and a tongue tie for the first time. She won over 800m at Hobart back in August but hasn't raced since, which makes her hard to trust.

The pace looks slow with no obvious leaders, which isn't ideal for anyone. It might come down to who can position best early, and from barrier 11, Strato Ken will need Jabez Johnstone to be positive. But I think he's got the class edge here and should prove too strong.

I'm going against the market favourite here because I think Turk Boy is being overlooked at longer odds despite his outstanding record at this track. He's got two wins and three placings from 10 starts at Devonport Synthetic, and he's won two and placed five times from 12 starts over this 1150m distance. Yes, he's carrying 64kg after the claim, but his form is rock solid. Last start he ran seventh at Launceston over 1200m in a Benchmark 64, beaten 3.3 lengths, but before that he rattled off two consecutive wins at Launceston in Benchmark 68 and 64 company.

Material Madam is the favourite and I can see why. She ran second at Hobart last start over 1200m, beaten 0.46 lengths in Class 2 company, and before that ran third at Launceston beaten 0.56 lengths. She's won twice from 14 starts and has a decent record at this distance with two wins from 10 starts. But she's only had two starts at Devonport with one placing, so she's not as proven on this surface as others.

Billie The Great is also short in the market and comes off a third at Launceston over 1400m in Class 4, beaten 1.25 lengths. She's won twice from 16 starts and has placed twice from four starts here at Devonport. The cross-over nose band comes off for the first time, which Bradley Franklin obviously thinks will help. She gets down to 55.5kg after the claim, which is a big advantage.

Bayside returns fresh with blinkers going on for the first time. He's got a good record here with one win and three placings from seven starts, and he ran well last preparation with a second at Launceston in Benchmark 64 company beaten 0.35 lengths. The 43-day break should have him spot on, and the gear change could spark improvement.

Fluffy's Girl ran third last start at Launceston over 1100m in Class 4, beaten a length, and has won three from 15. She's never raced at Devonport though, which is a concern. Zoete's Rock is another from the John Luttrell stable and has three wins from nine starts at this track, but he's been racing poorly with an eighth last time at Launceston.

The pace looks slow with no genuine leaders, which could turn this into a sprint home. Turk Boy is versatile enough to position forward or midfield, and I think his class and proven ability on this surface makes him the horse to beat despite the weight. Material Madam is the obvious danger, but I'd be taking the longer odds about Turk Boy.

Fashion Fox is the most interesting runner in this race for me, and I think he's being underestimated despite the wide draw. He's got two wins and two placings from eight starts at Devonport Synthetic, and one of those wins came over this exact 1650m trip. Last start he ran second here over 1350m beaten 9.75 lengths in a three-horse race, which doesn't read brilliantly, but before that he was competitive at Longford running fifth over 1400m beaten 4.25 lengths. The key is that he's proven on this surface and the step up to 1650m is right in his wheelhouse.

Alpine Blast is the favourite and it's not hard to see why with his outstanding record at this track. Eight wins and six placings from 40 starts at Devonport is exceptional, and he's got two wins and five placings from 19 starts over this distance. He ran second here last time over 1650m beaten a length in Benchmark 66 company, which is strong form. But he's had two runs back from a spell now and both times he's been beaten, including an eighth at Launceston last start. The tongue tie goes on for the first time, which suggests connections are looking for improvement.

Gee Gee Can Win has a solid record here with three wins and six placings from 30 starts. He ran seventh at Launceston last start over 1600m beaten 4.6 lengths, but before that he'd strung together some decent runs including a fourth in Benchmark 68 company. He's an eight-year-old with 68 starts under his belt, so you know what you're getting with him.

Reservoir Dog won last start over 1430m at Hobart, but that was only a two-horse race so it's impossible to take much from it. Before that he ran second here over 1350m beaten 4.5 lengths in a three-horse race. His form in Victoria was ordinary with some big margins against him. The gear changes are significant with the cross-over nose band and winkers coming off and a nose roll going on for the first time.

Scarletti has some form at this track with two wins from two starts here, though neither was at this distance. He's been racing consistently without winning, running seventh and ninth in his last two starts. Alpine Trout has been competitive without threatening, while Who Can It Be Now ran third last start at Launceston over 1600m beaten 1.3 lengths, which is solid form.

The pace looks slow with no obvious leaders, which could make it a tactical affair. Fashion Fox from the outside gate will need Kelvin Sanderson to be positive early, but I think his proven ability at this distance on this surface gives him a strong case. Alpine Blast is the obvious danger as the favourite, but at the prices I'd be taking Fashion Fox.

Little El is the favourite here and I think she's the right horse at the right price. She won over 1600m at Hobart in her third-up run, then stepped up to 2020m and ran a solid fifth beaten 6.25 lengths, before tackling 2100m last start and running eighth beaten 9.25 lengths. That last run suggests she's looking for a distance drop, and this 1650m trip should be perfect. She's won once from six starts and has the benefit of Jabez Johnstone's 1.5kg claim, getting her down to 57.5kg. She's also won over this exact distance before.

Bright Night is short in the market and has been competitive without winning, running fifth last start at Launceston over 2150m beaten 4.71 lengths. Before that she'd been running over unsuitable distances at Hobart, so the drop back to 1650m could suit. She's got a third here at Devonport over this distance earlier in her prep, beaten 0.81 lengths, which is strong form. With blinkers on and David Pires riding, she's a genuine threat.

Bellsprout won last start here over 1350m, but it was only a three-horse race so it's hard to read too much into it. Before that he'd been running in this grade and was competitive, including a second at Hobart beaten 0.4 lengths. He's got some Devonport form but nothing at this distance, which is a query.

Miss Terasita is the value runner for me in this race. She's returning fresh from a 54-day break, which is ideal, and she's got one win and two placings from 10 starts at 1650m. She's had two starts at Devonport for one placing, and that placing was a third over 1880m beaten 0.56 lengths, which is strong form. She maps to lead from barrier eight with her very fast early speed, and with only 54kg after the claim, she's going to take some running down if she gets her own way in front.

Silver Grange won his maiden last start at Launceston over 1420m and has to be respected, though he's never raced at this track or distance. Alpine Honey has been racing over longer trips and drops back here fresh, while Piping Willow maps to lead but has been well beaten in his recent starts.

The pace looks moderate with Piping Willow and Miss Terasita likely to push forward, which should ensure honest speed. I think Little El is the class runner here and should be too strong with the distance drop, but Miss Terasita is the value play at longer odds if you're looking for something at bigger numbers. Bright Night is the other danger.

Whippin Piccadilly is the horse I want to be with here, and I think the market has underestimated her despite her outstanding record at this venue. She's won three times from 11 starts at Devonport Synthetic and four times from 14 starts over this 1350m distance. Last start she ran eighth at Launceston over 1400m beaten 4.48 lengths, which looks poor, but before that she rattled off back-to-back wins at Launceston in Benchmark 68 and 64 company. Those wins came over 1600m and 1400m, so she's proven at the distance, and she's back on her preferred Devonport surface now.

Hartman is the favourite and comes off a win here over 800m last week, but that was only a three-horse race so it's impossible to gauge the true merit of it. Before that he ran third at Launceston over 1420m in Benchmark 68 company beaten 2.95 lengths, and further back he won over 1200m at Launceston. He's won twice from 22 starts and has a solid record here at Devonport with one win and one placing from three starts. The step up to 1350m is the query for me.

Flying Billie has been racing consistently at this level with a second at Hobart last start beaten 1.25 lengths in Benchmark 68 company. He's got one win and four placings from eight starts at Devonport, so he knows the track well. With Jabez Johnstone's 1.5kg claim getting him down to 58kg, he's a genuine threat.

Agnete won last start at Launceston over 1400m in Class 4 and has been racing in great form with three placings before that win. She's got one win and two placings from six starts at Devonport including three wins and two placings from eight starts over this distance. That's a strong record, and she's clearly suited to the track and trip.

Eastcoast Miss ran 10th last start at Launceston beaten 6.21 lengths, which is a poor result, but before that she'd been running well with a second and a win in her previous two starts. She's got two wins from five starts at Devonport and two wins from eight starts at this distance, so she's proven on the track and trip. Elegantly Written returns fresh with blinkers on and has won three from five starts at 1350m, which is an excellent record at the distance.

The pace looks slow with no obvious leaders, which could turn this into a sprint home. Whippin Piccadilly has the tactical speed to position forward if needed, and with Erica Byrne Burke riding, she should get every chance. Her record at this track and distance is outstanding, and I think she's the horse with the strongest case despite being overlooked in the market. Hartman is the obvious danger as favourite, but I'd be taking the value about Whippin Piccadilly.