Punters, here's the thing about Cowra on a Soft track: everyone rocks up backing the Bjorn Baker horses and the metro form, but I'm telling you right now, this surface is going to sort out who's genuine and who's just been winning on their class. I've seen too many city slickers come unstuck when the ground gets testing out here, and today's card is set up perfectly for a few upsets. The pace looks slow across the board, which means those with tactical speed are going to be gold, and I reckon there's value everywhere if you're willing to look past the short ones.
Market's Got This Maiden All Wrong
Let's start with the obvious: Nafanua is ridiculously short for a filly that's run two fourths in her last two starts. Yes, she's from the Bjorn Baker stable and yes, she's got a win on her record, but have a look at those recent runs. Fourth at Goulburn beaten over four lengths, fifth at Wyong beaten two and a half. That's not the form of a horse that should be odds-on in any maiden, I don't care who trains it.
Deluce from the Ciaron Maher yard is the other one getting plenty of market support, and I'll give you this: the wet track form is outstanding. Third at Nowra on a Heavy 8 beaten four lengths, and that winner Hey Jude is running later today in Race 7. But this gelding's been around the block, trialled twice, raced five times, and still hasn't won. That third placing at 1200m is his best effort, but I'm not convinced he's got the class edge here.
The one I'm all over is Erion. I know what you're thinking: nineteen starts for no wins looks terrible. But have a go at the form. Second at Wellington beaten less than a length at $51, then came back and ran sixth at Queanbeyan which reads better than it looks. Pierre Boudvillain gets on from barrier two, and this Soft 6 is right in his range given he's placed twice on soft ground. This experienced gelding looks primed to finally break through, and if he doesn't, I'll be genuinely shocked.
Kneel Down is the roughie that could sneak into the placings. Two thirds from twelve starts isn't flash, but both those thirds came in the last three runs. The form's trending the right way, and Izzy Neale's 1.5kg claim brings him right into it at the weights.
With no genuine speed in this race, it's going to be a sit-and-sprint affair. Erion from barrier two should be able to find a soft spot just off the pace and prove too strong. I'm against the favourite and I'm happy to say it.
Experience Counts Over The Mile
This is where Closethedoordarcy comes into her own. Fourteen starts, three seconds, and she's been knocking on the door all preparation. Third at Goulburn ten days ago beaten less than five lengths in a race where she was never in it, but before that she was running sixth at Queanbeyan, fifth at Goulburn, fourth at Sapphire Coast. This mare is honest as the day is long, and the step up to 1375m on a Soft track looks absolutely perfect. Tom Wilson knows how to place one, and Robyn Freeman is a smart booking.
The danger is Zippy Argento, who ran a terrific second at Queanbeyan beaten a length and a half. That's solid form for this grade, and the gelding's only had four starts so there's improvement to come. Jake Pracey-Holmes from Joe Cleary's stable gets the blinkers on, which should help him travel better in the run. He's a genuine threat.
The Glen is the market favourite but I'm not seeing it. Two starts, both in maidens, and the best he's managed is fourth beaten five lengths at Goulburn. They're putting winkers on for the first time which tells you the stable's looking for improvement, but this looks a class above what he's faced so far. I'd be happy to take him on.
Endless Applause has had two runs for two unplaced efforts. Taking the winkers off today, which is interesting, but I need to see more before I'm backing her at single-figure odds in a country maiden over 1375m.
The slow pace could make this tactical, but I reckon Closethedoordarcy's experience over the distance will be the difference. She's the one with the strongest case on form and fitness.
Debut Winner Steps Up
Tassalina bolted in on debut at Wagga by over two lengths at $2.10, and while the wide barrier (12) isn't ideal here, this filly from Todd Smart's stable looks a class above this mob. She's only had one start, which means there's natural improvement to come, and the fact she won first-up tells you she's forward enough. Pierre Boudvillain stays on, and that's a massive positive. The question is whether she can overcome the barrier and the step up in class, but I'm backing her to do it.
Rita Red is the most interesting runner for me. She's run second at Holbrook beaten a nose just 23 days ago, and before that won at Wagga. This mare's in form, knows how to win, and barrier six gives her every chance. Doug Gorrel has her going the right way, and the blinkers and tongue tie stay on. She's a genuine threat to the favourite and might actually be better value given the price.
Bosco won two starts back at Moruya on a Good track, then came out and ran fifth at Goulburn and seventh at Mudgee. The form's tailed off a bit, but he's got a win on the board and Damon Budler is a quality jockey. If he can recapture that Moruya form, he's in this.
Outlaw Annie won at Orange three starts back but has struggled since, running sixth and eighth in her last two. She's been off for 35 days which suggests they've given her a freshen-up, but I need to see her run well fresh before I'm backing her with any confidence.
Molteuno is first-up after 171 days, which is a massive break. She won at Goulburn on a Soft 6 three starts back, so the track condition is in her favour, but that spell is a concern. I'd want to see her run a cheeky first-up effort before getting serious about her.
The slow pace means this will be run to suit those with a finish, and Tassalina should have enough class to overcome the wide draw. If she doesn't, Rita Red looks the next best thing.
Baker Filly Looks A Class Above
I tell you what, punters, Tartan Tiger is the best thing on this card. Three starts, all in the money: third on debut, second next time, then won at Goulburn over 1500m on a Soft 6 just ten days ago. This filly from Bjorn Baker's yard is going places, and the fact they're running her back so quickly tells you they think she's up to it. She's only three years old taking on older horses, but the form line is rock solid and she's proven on this surface. Olivia Chambers takes 1.5kg off which helps, and from barrier five she should get a perfect run.
The danger is Special Prophet, who ran second at Orange beaten less than a length and a half. That's honest form, and he's run well at the distance before with a second over 1700m at Bathurst. The blinkers come off today which suggests they want him to relax better in the run, and he's a wet tracker through and through. If anything beats Tartan Tiger, it's this bloke.
Mr Tadashi has won three from nineteen, all on Soft tracks, so the conditions suit him perfectly. But he's been racing in tougher company than this and his last run was sixth at Albury in a Benchmark 58. I'm not convinced he's going well enough to beat this lot, even though the track is right up his alley.
Sir Sublime ran third at Goulburn beaten a nose just 25 days ago, which is solid form. He's placed at the distance before and handles soft ground. He's one of those honest types who'll run his race and pick up prizemoney, but I don't think he's got the class to beat the top two.
Take The Chance ran second at Queanbeyan over 2000m beaten two and a bit lengths. The distance looks a query coming back to 1700m, and while the blinkers are back on, I think there are better options in this race.
The slow pace is a concern for closers, but Tartan Tiger's tactical speed should see her positioned perfectly. She's the one with the strongest case by a fair margin, and I'd be genuinely shocked if she doesn't win this. If you're looking for value, Special Prophet each-way is the play.
Class Drop Suits Baker Filly
Curie is dropping back from Canterbury to Cowra, and that's a massive class drop. This filly from Bjorn Baker's stable won at Mudgee two starts back, then ran third at Kembla Grange and won again at Warwick Farm. Four starts, two wins, and she's only raced on Soft or Heavy tracks. This Soft 6 is right in her wheelhouse, and from barrier four Chad Lever should be able to put her wherever he wants. She's ridiculously short in the market but I can see why.
Sir Lunchalots is the one I'm most interested in as value. He ran second at Nowra beaten a nose just 15 days ago, and that form looks solid. He's won twice from sixteen starts, both times in the right conditions, and this Soft track suits him perfectly given his record of 0-1-1 from eight starts on soft. Anthony Warren has him going the right way, and at longer odds he's worth a crack each-way.
Golden Warrior has been racing in stronger company than this and finished sixth at Goulburn in a Class 3 last start. That's not bad form for a Benchmark 58, and he's won twice at the distance. The concern is he's 0-0-0 from five starts on Soft tracks, which is a massive red flag given today's conditions. I'm happy to swerve him.
Charlie Magic ran twelfth at Dubbo beaten nearly seven lengths in his last start, which is ordinary form. He's been placed at the distance before and won twice from twelve starts, but I need to see better than that last run before I'm backing him.
Rangatira ran second at Orange beaten less than a length, which is good form. He's raced 37 times for three wins, so he's not the most prolific winner, but he's honest and should run his race. The problem is I think there are better options at the top of the market.
The slow pace makes this tactical, and Curie's class should see her home. She's the one to beat, but Sir Lunchalots at overs is the value play if you're looking for something against the favourite.
Inside Gate The Key For Casino
Chico Casino from barrier one is the play here. This gelding from Dean Mirfin's stable has been racing consistently all preparation: third at Orange beaten six lengths on a Heavy track, then seventh at Dubbo and seventh at Cowra. The form's not spectacular, but have a look at his record: three wins and four seconds from 25 starts, and he's got two runs at this track for a third and a placing. He knows Cowra, he's won on Soft tracks before, and barrier one is absolutely crucial in these slow-pace races. Zac Wadick can put him on the fence and give him every chance.
Hammering Away has won three from fourteen and loves this track with one win from two starts here. He's been racing in stronger grades than this, and while his last start was thirteenth at Mudgee, before that he ran fourth at Orange on a Heavy track. That Heavy track form is relevant today, and if he can find his best, he's a genuine threat. The concern is the consistency: he's had plenty of chances and only won three races.
Glowing Rapids is the favourite and I can see why: he ran third at Dubbo beaten a length and a half, then third again beaten just over a length. That's consistent form, and he's won at the distance before. But I'm not convinced he's got the gate speed to take advantage of barrier five in a slow-pace race, and I think there are better options at bigger odds.
Crucial Witness is a veteran with 65 starts and eight wins. She's been racing in Benchmark 64 company and drops back to 58 today, which helps. Ran sixth at Braidwood last start which isn't flash, but she's won three times at the distance and knows how to win. The blinkers stay on, and if she brings her best, she's a chance.
Twin Gift won at Orange two starts back on a Heavy track, which is excellent form for today's conditions. He's had 14 starts for two wins, and he's raced at Cowra twice before without troubling the judge. I'm not sure he's got the class to beat this lot, even though the Heavy track win is in his favour.
The barrier is everything in this race, and Chico Casino from the inside should be able to control the race from the front. He's the one with the strongest case, and I'd be very surprised if he doesn't figure in the finish. Hammering Away at longer odds is the value play.
Consistency Wins This Cup
Vicious Rumour is the most consistent horse in this race, and that's what you want in a staying event like this. Three seconds in her last three starts: beaten two and a half lengths at Muswellbrook on a Heavy 8, won at Dubbo on a Good 4, then ran second at Cowra over this exact distance beaten just over a length. She knows the track, she knows the distance, and Chad Lever from Michael Mulholland's stable is a quality booking. The blinkers go back on today, which should help her focus, and from barrier twelve she'll get back and run on. In a slow-pace race, that's perfect.
The Contractor won at Mudgee last start by nearly two lengths, and before that ran second at Dubbo beaten less than half a length. That's excellent form, and he's only had nine starts so there's natural improvement to come. David J Smith has him going the right way, and Amy McLucas is a capable jockey. He's a genuine threat to the favourite.
Hey Jude is the market favourite from Bjorn Baker's stable, and I can see why. Won at Nowra on a Heavy 10 last start, and that form line includes Deluce who ran third and is racing in the first race today. She's only had seven starts for one win and one second, so she's still learning her craft. The concern is the consistency: sixth and fifth in her two starts before the win suggests she's not quite there yet.
Splendid Magnus won at Orange on a Heavy track last start, and before that ran second at Cowra over 1200m. She's got track form, and the Heavy track win is relevant today. The blinkers stay on, and Damon Budler is a top jockey. She's one to include in exotics.
Frankie's Shout ran fourth at Mudgee beaten just over two lengths, which is solid form. He won at Bathurst over 1400m on a Soft track, so the conditions suit, and the distance is right in his range. He's a chance if he brings his best.
The Git Up has run three placings from her last three starts: third, second, third. That's consistent form, and she's got track experience with a third over this distance at Cowra. The blinkers stay on, and she should run her race as usual.
The slow pace means this will be tactical, and Vicious Rumour's consistency over the distance gives her the strongest case. She's the one to beat, with The Contractor the danger if he can back up his Mudgee win.
Experience Trumps Class At The Short Course
The Mooch is the value play in this race, and I'm telling you why. This mare has raced 47 times, won three, and had ten seconds. She's run at Cowra three times for a second and a placing, and she's had 30 starts at this distance for two wins and eight seconds. That's the form of a horse who knows exactly what to do over 950m. Last start she ran sixth at Queanbeyan beaten two and a half lengths, which isn't brilliant, but before that she was running eleventh at Dubbo, sixth at Parkes, and ninth at Dubbo. The form's been ordinary, but Michael Lynch has put Mathew Cahill on today, and that's a massive jockey booking. When you see Cahill getting on a mare at 55.5kg in a Benchmark 58 at Cowra, you pay attention.
The favourite is Shaddap, and I'll give you this: he's won three from thirteen and knows how to win. But have a look at his last two starts: tenth at Randwick beaten six lengths, then seventh at Orange beaten eight lengths. That's not the form of a horse who should be odds-on in a Benchmark 58 at a country track. They're putting blinkers on for the first time today, which tells you the stable's looking for improvement, but I'm happy to take him on at the price.
Denman Force is the interesting runner. He won at Cowra last start over this exact distance on a Heavy 8 by a nose. That's excellent form, and he's only had two starts, so there's improvement to come. The concern is he's been off for 35 days, which suggests they've freshened him up, but the first-up record (1-0-1 from two starts) is solid. The blinkers go back on, and from barrier fourteen he'll get back and run on. In a slow-pace race, that might not be ideal, but the class is there.
Desirous has won four from 26 starts and ran second at Orange beaten just over four lengths on a Heavy track. That form's relevant today, and she's got an excellent record at the distance with three wins from 24 starts. Ross Lomax has her going well, and she should be in the finish.
Miss Mikki Isle ran sixth at Nowra beaten nearly seven lengths, which isn't great form. Before that she ran sixth at Sapphire Coast and second at Queanbeyan. The form's mixed, but she's got four wins at the distance from nine starts, which is an outstanding record. The blinkers stay on, and she's one to include in exotics.
Falcon Gold ran third at Queanbeyan beaten a length and a half, which is good form. He's won at the distance before and handles soft ground. The blinkers stay on, and he should run his race.
The slow pace makes this tactical, and I reckon The Mooch's experience at the track and distance, combined with Cahill's booking, makes her the value play. Denman Force is the danger if he can reproduce his last-start Cowra win, but the spell is a concern. I'm backing experience over class in this one.
Where The Form Points
The strongest case on this card is Tartan Tiger in Race 4. This filly from Bjorn Baker's stable has a perfect record of three starts for a third, a second, and a win, and she's proven on Soft tracks. The step up to 1700m looks ideal, and I'd be genuinely shocked if she doesn't win this Benchmark 58.
Vicious Rumour in Race 7 is the other one I'm very keen on. Three consecutive seconds, knows the track and distance, and Chad Lever is a quality booking. The consistency is there, and in a staying event like this, that's what counts.
The value play is Erion in the opening race. Nineteen starts without a win looks terrible, but the form's there if you dig into it. Second at Wellington at $51 beaten less than a length, and from barrier two with Pierre Boudvillain on board, he should get every chance to finally break through.
Chico Casino in Race 6 is another I'm very interested in. Barrier one in a slow-pace race is absolutely crucial, and this gelding knows Cowra. He's the horse with the strongest tactical advantage, and that counts for plenty on a Soft track where positioning is everything.
The roughie I'm keen on is The Mooch in the last. The booking of Mathew Cahill is the key here. When you see a jockey of that quality getting on a mare with 47 starts and 30 runs at the distance, you pay attention. She's got the experience, and at longer odds, she's worth a crack.
