The pace scenario here is straightforward. Angel Capital and Disneck will roll forward and set a moderate tempo, which means the stalkers are going to get the perfect run. Tentyris maps to sit just off the speed with Mark Zahra from barrier 12, and that's exactly where you want to be in a race like this. The closers are going to find it hard work if the tempo stays genuine but not too quick.

Tentyris is the class act here. Five wins from eight starts tells you everything you need to know about his strike rate. Three wins at Flemington from four attempts, three wins over 1200m from four goes. His last start win at Randwick over 1200m was strong, beating a decent field by three quarters of a length carrying 57kg. Before that, he'd won at Flemington over 1000m and 1200m in consecutive runs. The horse he beat by 2.25 lengths at Flemington in that 1200m win was My Gladiola, who has since run second to him again and won a trial. The form is rock solid.

My Gladiola herself is the main danger. She's run second to Tentyris twice now, by 2.25 lengths over 1200m here and then by three quarters of a length over 1000m last start. She's clearly a smart filly and gets in light at 50.5kg with the claim. If Tentyris is below his best, she's the one to take advantage. But I think she's fighting for second.

War Machine is first-up after 43 days and ran third at Pakenham in a trial, beaten 3.5 lengths. Before the break, he won here over 1200m by two lengths, which is solid form. The issue is he's been tried at Group level before and found wanting. He ran 12th at Randwick in the Shorts and 10th in The Everest behind Ka Ying Rising. This is Group 1 company and I'm not convinced he's up to this grade, even fresh.

Caballus ran second to Joliestar at Randwick last start, beaten 1.19 lengths. That form looks reasonable, and he's won at this track before. But he maps to get back from barrier 1 and will need serious luck in running. The speed map doesn't favour him at all, and at 55kg he's not getting enough weight relief to offset the pattern.

Benedetta ran third to Tentyris over 1000m last start, beaten 1.5 lengths. She's been competitive at this level before but hasn't won since 2023. I think she's honest but outclassed by the favourite here. Pallaton won at Caulfield last start over 1200m but that was in a field of seven and the form doesn't stack up to this level. He's a 94-rated horse in a race full of 110-plus performers.

The market has this right. Tentyris is the horse to beat and I'd be genuinely shocked if he doesn't win this. The track record, the distance form, the race shape, it all points to him. My Gladiola is the only real threat and even then, I think she's running for second prize.

This race has no pace. The speed map is classified as slow with no clear leaders, which means it's going to be a tactical nightmare. Pride Of Jenni, Stefi Magnetica, Evaporate and Watch Me Rock are all going to be looking for a position, and someone is going to have to go forward. That lack of tempo could suit the on-pacers if they can get a soft lead, but it makes this race a genuine lottery.

Pride Of Jenni is the favourite and I can see why. She's got 12 wins from 43 starts and a phenomenal Flemington record: three wins from 14 starts at this track, seven wins from 17 attempts at 1600m. Her last start was a disaster, running 17 lengths last over this course and distance in soft ground. But before that, she'd won here by 4.5 lengths over 1600m on good ground, which is exactly what she's getting today. That win was dominant, and it came after she'd won at Moonee Valley by 1.75 lengths. The mare is a class act when she's right, and I think we can forgive that last run as an off day. She's had 119 days since then to get over whatever went wrong.

Tom Kitten is interesting. He's won his last two starts, including a Caulfield win over 1400m just 10 days ago. But he's only had one run at this trip at Flemington, finishing third behind Via Sistina in the Turnbull Stakes, beaten 3.5 lengths. That was at weight-for-age and this is handicap conditions, but I'm not convinced he's a genuine 1600m horse. He's more of a miler who can stretch out, and this race shape doesn't suit him at all with no pace.

Antino has 13 wins from 31 starts and a solid record at 1600m: three wins from 10 attempts. But his recent form is patchy. He ran eighth at Randwick last start, beaten 8.13 lengths, and before that was seventh at Deagon and eighth at Moonee Valley. His best recent run was a second at Flemington over 2000m, beaten 1.75 lengths by Sir Delius. That's a staying effort, not a miling one. I think he's looking for further now and this race comes up short for him.

Evaporate has been knocking on the door. He ran fourth at Caulfield last start, beaten less than a length, and before that was third to Jimmysstar and third to Autumn Glow at Randwick. That Randwick form is strong, Autumn Glow has since won again. But he's never won at Flemington and the lack of pace is a concern for a horse that likes to settle back and run on.

Watch Me Rock is a New Zealand visitor with 11 wins from 21 starts. He won three in a row in Perth before running sixth at Caulfield last start, beaten 3.43 lengths. That was his first run in Melbourne and he may have needed it. The problem is he's drawn barrier 5 and maps to settle midfield, which is no man's land in a race with no pace. I think he's better than he showed last start, but the race shape is all wrong for him.

This is Pride Of Jenni's race to lose. The track, the distance, the conditions all suit her perfectly. If she brings her A-game like she did when winning here by 4.5 lengths, I think she wins. Tom Kitten is the danger if he can overcome the lack of pace, but I'm siding with the favourite.

Another race with no clear pace scenario, which is becoming a theme today. Yorkshire, Linebacker and Joliestar are all going to be looking for a spot, and this could turn into a sit-and-sprint affair. That suits horses with a sharp turn of foot, and there are a few of those in this field.

Yorkshire has eight wins from 11 starts, which is an absurd strike rate. Three wins at Randwick, three wins over 1300m. His last start was a win at Rosehill over 1000m, and before that he won the All-Star Mile at Randwick over 1600m. That All-Star Mile form is the key here. He beat a field of 20 that included Gringotts, who ran 11th, beaten 4.06 lengths. Gringotts is in this race and gives us a direct form line. Before that, Yorkshire won at Rosehill over 1500m. The only blot on his copybook was a 16th at Newcastle when he was sent out favourite and ran 11.39 lengths last. We can throw that out as an absolute anomaly.

Joliestar is the favourite and I can see the appeal. Eight wins from 19 starts, five wins first-up from seven attempts. She won at Randwick last start over 1200m, beating Caballus and Lady Shenandoah. That's strong form. But she's only had one run at 1300m and that was a win, so the distance is an unknown factor. I think she's a genuine chance, but I'm not convinced she's the class horse that Yorkshire is. He's got a higher ceiling.

Gringotts ran 11th to Yorkshire in the All-Star Mile, beaten 4.06 lengths. Since then, he's won at Kembla Grange over 1600m and at Randwick over 1600m on soft ground. His last start was fifth at Rosehill in a trial over 1030m, beaten 4.81 lengths. The form is solid but not spectacular. I think he's a place chance at best, and the direct form line with Yorkshire says he's going to struggle to turn that form around.

Linebacker won at Randwick last start over 1000m on soft ground. Before that, he was second at Canterbury and won at Randwick twice over 1000m and 1300m. The 1300m win was strong, beating a field of 13 by 2.63 lengths. He's a progressive horse from the O'Shea and Charlton yard, and I think he's a genuine chance here. The issue is he's only had two runs at the distance and while both were wins, this is a much stronger field than he's faced before.

Lady Shenandoah ran third to Joliestar last start, beaten 1.34 lengths. Before that, she was well beaten at Randwick in two runs. The form is inconsistent, and I think she's a class below the top two or three in this race. Beiwacht ran eighth at Flemington last start behind Tentyris, beaten 6.31 lengths. That's not good enough for this level, and I think he's going to struggle.

This is a two-horse race between Yorkshire and Joliestar, and I'm siding with Yorkshire. The form is stronger, the record at the track and distance is better, and he's proven at the highest level. Joliestar is a danger, but I think Yorkshire is the horse with the strongest case here.

Another race with limited speed, which is a worry. Giga Kick, Mazu and Raging Force are the main chances, and the lack of tempo could suit the horse with the best finishing kick. That's Giga Kick all day long.

Giga Kick has nine wins from 20 starts and a strong Randwick record: two wins from seven attempts. His record at 1000m is solid with one win from five goes. His last start was a fifth at Flemington over 1000m, beaten 2.06 lengths by Tentyris. That's not a bad run at all given Tentyris is the best sprinter in the country right now. Before that, he was second to My Gladiola in a Caulfield trial, beaten 0.2 lengths, and before that he won at Flemington over 1200m by 0.2 lengths. The form is strong, and he's a proven Group 1 performer. This is a drop back in grade for him.

Raging Force is short in the market and I'm not sure why. He's won four from eight starts, which is a good record, but he's only a 94-rated horse. His last start was a win at Rosehill over 900m, and before that he was third to Iron Will. The form is progressive but not spectacular. He ran 10th at Flemington in the Coolmore behind Tentyris, beaten 6.41 lengths, and that's the level he's going to face here. I think he's being overbet on potential rather than proven form.

Mazu is interesting. Nine wins from 42 starts, which is a moderate strike rate, but he's been competitive at Group level before. His last start was a third at Warwick Farm in a trial, beaten 1.9 lengths, and before that he won over 795m at the same track. The form is inconsistent, and I think he's a place chance at best. He's had 42 starts and hasn't set the world on fire, so I'm not sure why we'd expect him to now.

Generosity has been competitive without winning much. Four wins from 25 starts is a poor strike rate. Her last three runs have been seventh, sixth and fifth, which tells you she's struggling to fire. I couldn't be less interested in her here. The Black Cloud ran third in a trial last start, beaten 1.11 lengths, which is okay but not setting the world on fire. She's a 100-rated mare in a race with a 116-rated horse in Giga Kick. The class difference is significant.

Marhoona is a three-year-old filly with three wins from six starts. She won at Randwick last start over 900m, which is a good effort, but before that she was sixth at Flemington behind Tentyris, beaten 3.56 lengths. That form line says she's not good enough to beat Giga Kick here. She's a nice filly with a future, but this race comes too soon against these horses.

Giga Kick is the class act here. The form is strong, the record at Randwick is solid, and he's a proven Group 1 performer. I think he wins this comfortably if he brings his A-game. Raging Force is the danger if the market knows something I don't, but I'm not convinced he's good enough to beat Giga Kick at his best.