Ladies and gentlemen, equine and wagering enthusiasts, fire up for today's Lay of the Day. I'm looking at the Darley Sires' Produce Stakes at Flemington and I reckon the favourite is sitting in a nightmare scenario that the market is completely ignoring.
Zambales: Vulnerable At Way Too Short
Zambales is way too short here, punters. Bloody hell, this horse has drawn barrier 2, is classified as a closer, and the speed map tells us this is going to be a crawl with limited speed. That's the kiss of death for a backmarker drawn wide enough to get caught three deep without cover in a slowly run race.
Look at the form. This colt hasn't won since debut, running second at Flemington behind Hard Kick when beaten 2.75 lengths, then fourth at Caulfield behind Streisand when the race didn't suit. The pattern is clear: Zambales needs a genuine tempo to run into. With only Leopard Shark and Refuse To Curtsy shown as stalkers and no genuine leaders wanting to control the tempo, this is going to be a sit and sprint affair.
Mark Zahra is a top rider but even he can't defy physics. From barrier 2 in a field like this, if Zambales goes back as is his pattern, he'll be giving them all a big start in a slowly run race. If he tries to race closer, he's racing against his natural style.
I reckon the real dangers here are the horses that can sit closer like Hydrobomb and Dr Hook, who won't have to make up as much ground when they sprint. The favourite is vulnerable, simple as that.
The Verdict
I'd be shocked if Zambales wins this. Wrong barrier, wrong racing pattern, wrong speed map. Everything that can go against a closer is going against this favourite. The market has got this one wrong, punters.
Give me something that can race handy or a horse with genuine early speed over a backmarker drawn in the car park facing a crawl any day of the week. This is the Lay of the Day. Up we go, punters!
