Track Specialists Versus The Doomben Winner
This shapes as a genuine speed battle on a track that's going to test stamina over 1200m. Ritualize from Stuart Kendrick will roll forward from barrier two, and that Doomben win three starts back is solid form, winning by just over a length in Heavy conditions. The horse has won twice at this track over 850m, so the venue holds no fears. But I'm not sweet on the two runs since that Doomben success. Beaten 1.03 lengths at this track over 850m, then 3.38 lengths at Ipswich over 1100m. The form is going backwards, not forwards.
Highgrove Rose is the one I'm most interested in. Yes, the last two runs at Doomben and Eagle Farm over 1000m and 1800m look ordinary on the surface, but go back three starts and this horse won at Sunshine Coast over 1600m on Good ground. Then it was beaten less than a length twice in a row here over 1400m and 1200m. This is a proven track specialist who maps beautifully from barrier five to sit just off the speed. Ryan Maloney knows this track as well as anyone, and I think the step back to 1200m on a tiring surface is exactly what this horse needs.
Ave Cantare has won at this track over 1000m and brings form around Doomben where it's been beaten a length twice in succession. That Sunshine Coast win was by 1.23 lengths on Good ground, and Daniel Moor taking the ride is a tick. But I'm not convinced this horse has shown enough to suggest it's better than Highgrove Rose on their respective track form.
Unfaithful won here last start over 1000m on Good ground, but the run before that was a 0.19 length second over 850m on Soft. Go back further and the form is ordinary, beaten six to seven lengths multiple times. I'd be genuinely shocked if this one could sustain a run over 1200m on Heavy.
Silver Smash is a course and distance winner on Soft ground three starts back, which immediately puts this horse in the conversation. Beaten 4.43 lengths here over 1200m on Soft last start, but that was after an eight-week break. The fitness should be there now, and Natalie McCall clearly thinks the Heavy track suits.
The form horse with the strongest case is Highgrove Rose. The track record is undeniable, the barrier is perfect, and the step back in distance on a Heavy surface should see this horse grinding past tiring leaders. I'm not convinced Ritualize has the form to hold off a proven track specialist.
Market Madness For A One-Win Wonder
The market has absolutely lost its mind backing Yes Donald Yes into favouritism after one win at Warwick over 1350m on Soft ground. Let's be clear about what that form is: a maiden win at a country track. The run before that was a fourth at Warwick over 1200m, beaten 0.36 lengths. Go back to the trial form and there's a third at Eagle Farm over 800m. This is a horse with two career starts that's now being asked to step up to Benchmark 60 grade at Sunshine Coast on a Heavy 8 over 1400m. I think that is an absurd price given the level of opposition beaten.
Pulveriser is the form horse in this race and I'm baffled it's not shorter in the market. This horse has won its last two starts, both at Sunshine Coast. The most recent was over 1200m on Soft, then before that over 1000m on Good at the inner track. Yes, there's a gap in the form with runs at Warrnambool and Swan Hill that look ordinary, but since returning to Queensland this horse has been rock solid. Kelsey Lenton takes the ride, and I think the step up to 1400m on Heavy ground is going to suit a horse that's clearly found its groove.
Fifth Force has been knocking on the door without winning, with two fourths from its last two starts here at Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast over 1400m on Soft ground. Go back three starts and this horse won at Sunshine Coast over 1600m on Good by 0.83 lengths. The distance is perfect, the track is familiar, and the form around Benchmark 60 grade is solid. But I'm not convinced this horse has the turn of foot to put away Pulveriser if that one gets rolling.
Kerkorian is way too long in the market for my liking. Yes, the last two runs at Doomben and Sunshine Coast over 1000m look poor, beaten nine lengths and four lengths respectively. But go back four starts and this horse won at Sunshine Coast over 1800m on Good ground by 1.49 lengths. Before that it was a 1.13 length second at Doomben over 2030m. This is a horse that wants distance and a Heavy track over 1400m is going to produce a stamina test. Paul Hamblin taking the ride is a concern, but the form at longer trips can't be ignored.
Giving Delight has been consistently mediocre with four fourths and two fifths from its last six starts. I couldn't be less interested in this horse. The form simply isn't good enough for this grade when there are horses like Pulveriser who've been winning.
Double Whammy won here over 1800m on Soft three starts back by 0.4 lengths, and was a 0.29 length second over 1000m on Good last start at the inner track. The distance is a query, but Stuart Kendrick clearly thinks this horse is ready to step up. The lack of a confirmed jockey is a concern.
The Last Saga comes off a Rockhampton win over 1400m on Soft, which is relevant form for these conditions. But I'm not convinced the provincial form in Central Queensland translates to Benchmark 60 grade at Sunshine Coast. The horse has had 37 starts for five wins, and that record suggests it's found its level.
Chance With Wolves has 69 starts for seven wins and is another horse that's clearly found its level. The third at Kilcoy over 1500m on Soft two starts back is okay form, but I'd be genuinely surprised if this one could figure against the in-form runners.
The horse with the strongest case is Pulveriser. Two wins on end at this track, proven in Soft conditions, and the step up to 1400m on a Heavy surface is going to turn this into a stamina test that should suit. I'm not convinced Yes Donald Yes has done anywhere near enough to justify market support, and I think the market has this completely wrong.
Where I Stand
The strongest form case on the card is Highgrove Rose in the opening race. The track record is undeniable with multiple placings at Sunshine Coast including a win over 1600m, and I think the market is underestimating how much the Heavy track and 1200m trip will favour a proven grinder over flashier types like Ritualize. The barrier is perfect, Ryan Maloney is a major positive, and I'd be surprised if this one didn't figure prominently.
In Race 5, I think the market has completely lost the plot backing Yes Donald Yes after one country maiden win. Pulveriser has won its last two starts at this track and the form is rock solid at this level. The Heavy 8 over 1400m is going to produce a genuine stamina test, and I think we're going to see the lightly raced favourite struggle to sustain a run against horses who've been grinding away at Benchmark 60 grade week after week.
If you're looking for value, Kerkorian at longer odds in Race 5 is worth a second look purely on the distance form. The horse has won and placed at trips beyond 1800m, and a Heavy track over 1400m is going to play right into its hands if the pace is honest. The jockey is a concern, but the form at longer trips can't be dismissed.
