This is the feature race of the card and I think the market has made a complete mess of it. Let me start with Rock Them Jools, who won last start at Cranbourne over this trip. That looks solid on paper until you realise the horse he beat, the runner-up that day, hasn't come out and franked the form whatsoever. The margin was comfortable enough, but the time was moderate and the opposition was ordinary. Before that win, this horse was fourth at Sandown Hillside beaten 1.4 lengths, sixth at Bendigo beaten over four, and the only other win came at Sandown Hillside in similar grade. Chris Waller has him in good order, sure, but I'm not convinced this form is anywhere near good enough to be short in the market against some of these.

Didn't Miss Many is the one I'm genuinely interested in. Won at Warrnambool last start over this exact distance, and that form looks significantly better than what Rock Them Jools has been beating. The runner-up that day at Werribee, beaten a quarter of a length, was only 0.25L off the winner, which suggests Didn't Miss Many is right in career-best form. Before that, third at Bendigo in the wet beaten less than a length, and the consistency is there with three wins from 11 starts. Declan Bates knows this horse well, and the 59kg weight allocation looks very fair given what's being asked to carry more. I think this is absurd value.

Betwitchery won here last start over the 1400m, which is obviously a big tick. That was a comfortable victory, and two starts back was only 0.6L off the winner at Morphettville Parks in similar company. The form line through that race is solid, the winner that day has since performed well. Leon & Troy Corstens & Will Larkin have this mare going the right way, and while the 58kg isn't a featherweight, it's workable. Ben Allen is a capable rider and the inside barrier four draw is ideal. This is a genuine winning chance.

Damehood from the Ciaron Maher stable is another with a serious chance. Second here last start over 1200m beaten 1.5 lengths, and before that won at Sandown Lakeside over 1300m by three-quarters of a length. The step up to 1400m shouldn't be an issue given the way this mare has been racing, and Craig Williams in the saddle is a massive positive. The 57.5kg is the second-lowest weight in the race, which gives her every chance. I think she's being underestimated.

House Of Lords won at Moe last start over 2050m, which is a completely different assignment to this 1400m test. I'm not sure how that form translates down in distance, and the record suggests this horse is much better when allowed to roll along at a staying trip. The 58kg isn't helping either. I'd be genuinely shocked if this one figured in the finish.

The pace scenario is interesting. Cameron Falls will likely roll forward from barrier one given his fresh-up win at Caulfield Heath over 1200m, though he was well beaten here at Pakenham last start. Le Ferrari from the wide gate might also push forward given his racing pattern. If they go hard early, it sets up perfectly for horses like Betwitchery and Damehood who can sit off the speed and finish. If it's a muddling tempo, Didn't Miss Many can position closer and prove too strong.

I think Didn't Miss Many is the value play here, with Betwitchery and Damehood both serious winning chances. The market favourite Rock Them Jools has to prove the form to me, and I'm just not seeing it. This is a race to take them on.

This is a proper staying test at Newcastle, and I think there's a clear standout on form. Golden Smile has been knocking on the door in this grade consistently. Second at Hawkesbury last start over 2000m beaten just 0.31L, and before that won at Beaumont over 2200m in the wet. The form prior to that is littered with placings, including third at Beaumont over 2100m beaten half a length, and second at Beaumont over the same trip beaten 0.41L. This horse is crying out for this distance, and the fact Andrew Gibbons has stuck with the ride tells me connections are confident. The 58kg is very manageable for a horse in this sort of form.

Monty Be Quick won last start at Hawkesbury over 2000m, which looks solid form on the surface. But I want to see how that form stacks up, and the horse he beat hasn't come out and done anything significant since. Before that win, this horse was third at Wyong over 1350m, which is a completely different assignment, and 12th at Newcastle over 1850m beaten over eight lengths. The consistency just isn't there for me to be confident at this trip. Wayne Seelin has him fit enough, but I think the step up to 2300m is a query.

Lugarno has been racing in stronger company in town, which is a positive. Fourth at Canterbury over 1900m last start beaten 1.66L, and before that fourth at Gosford over 2100m beaten 1.57L. That Gosford run is the key form line here, as it suggests the horse can handle this distance. Chad Schofield is a top rider and John Thompson knows how to get them ready. The 59kg isn't light, but it's not prohibitive either. This is a genuine each-way chance.

Rita's Pearl is lightly raced with just eight starts, and the form is intriguing. Second at Wyong last start over 2125m beaten 0.66L, and before that won at Goulburn over 2140m by over four lengths. That Goulburn win was dominant, and if this horse can reproduce that effort, it's right in this. The concern is the limited experience, and whether it can handle the step up in class. Andrew Calder takes the ride, and the 55.5kg is a significant weight advantage. I wouldn't be dismissing this one.

The pace here should be genuine given the distance. Tainui and Southerly Buster are likely to roll forward and set a solid tempo, which should suit horses like Golden Smile who can settle midfield and finish strongly. If the pace is too slow, it could turn into a sprint home, which might favour the handier types. I think the distance and the likely tempo play perfectly into Golden Smile's hands, and I'd be surprised if this horse didn't figure prominently. Lugarno is the clear danger with the class edge, while Rita's Pearl is the each-way smoky if the price is right.

This is a maiden handicap at Dubbo over 1300m, and the form is typically messy for this grade. Miss Maverick is the market favourite, and I can see why. Second at Tamworth last start over 1400m beaten 0.71L, and before that second at Orange over 1000m beaten 0.67L. This mare has been knocking on the door consistently, and the step up to 1300m looks ideal given the way she's been finishing her races. Connie Greig has her in good order, and Izzy Neale takes 1.5kg off. The 55kg is a nice weight, and I think this mare is the one to beat.

Nightwalker has been placed four times from 33 starts, which tells you this horse knows how to run a race without winning. Second at Dubbo last start over 1300m beaten 1.42L, which is relevant form for this exact trip. Before that, third at Dubbo over 1200m, and the consistency is there with multiple placings at Orange over 1000m. The concern is whether this horse can actually win, or if it's destined to be a perpetual bridesmaid. Jordan Quince takes 2kg off, which helps, but I'm not convinced this horse has the winning mentality.

Be Guided has placed in both starts this preparation, including fifth at Tamworth over 1200m last start beaten just 0.52L. That's solid form for a horse stepping up to 1300m, and the consistency is encouraging. Before that, fifth at Scone over 1000m, and the form prior shows multiple thirds. Ben Blay has this filly going the right way, and Ella Drew is a capable apprentice. The 57kg isn't light, but it's workable. This is an each-way chance.

Strassman has been tried over longer trips without success, including ninth at Nowra over 1600m last start beaten 5.4L. The form line that interests me is the second at Sapphire Coast over 1400m beaten 1.37L, which suggests this horse can be competitive at this sort of distance. But the consistency isn't there, and I'm not sure this horse is good enough to win against Miss Maverick. The pace should be genuine with several on-pace types, which might suit Miss Maverick settling just off the speed and finishing strongly. I think the favourite is the right horse here, with Be Guided the value each-way play if the price is right. Nightwalker will run well without winning, as usual.

This is a Benchmark 82 sprint at Dubbo, and I think Inazuma Boy is the clear class horse in this race. Won at Tamworth last start over 1000m, and before that won at Dubbo over this exact 1100m trip. That Dubbo win is the key form line here, as it proves this horse can handle the track and distance. Before that, fourth at Canterbury over 1100m in the wet beaten 2.92L, which is significantly stronger form than most of these have been competing in. Rodney Northam has this gelding flying, and Leeshelle Small takes 1.5kg off. The 59kg is very fair given the class edge, and I think this horse should be too good.

Chandon Star has won three straight, including at Tamworth over 1200m, Gilgandra over 1100m, and Scone over 1200m. That's impressive consistency, and the form looks solid enough. Second at Tamworth last start over 1000m beaten just 0.15L suggests this horse is still in top form. Jacob Stiff takes 2kg off, which is a positive, and the 59kg is manageable. The concern is whether the class is quite there to match Inazuma Boy, but this is a genuine winning chance.

Rivkin has been racing consistently without winning, including second at Walcha over 1000m beaten 0.29L, and second at Muswellbrook over the same trip beaten 0.81L. Before that, won at Wyong over 1000m, which shows this horse can win at this level. Lyle Chandler has him fit, and the 58kg is a nice weight. The form is there, but I'm not sure this horse has the class to beat Inazuma Boy on his best day.

The pace should be genuine with several speed types, including Chandon Star and Gidgee Guy who will likely roll forward. That sets up perfectly for Inazuma Boy to sit just off the speed and finish too strongly. I think the favourite is the right horse here, and I'd be genuinely surprised if anything could beat this horse on current form. Chandon Star is the clear danger with the winning form, but the class edge sits firmly with Inazuma Boy.