Tarvue's Progressive Form Looks A Class Above
I'm firmly in the Tarvue camp here and I'd be surprised if anything else has the class to beat him. Look at the form: he's won his last-start at Flemington over 2000m on Good ground, and before that he was beaten just a quarter length at Flemington over 2520m. That second placing was to a horse who clearly had him covered on the day, but the key point is he's mixing it at a higher level than this field. Prior to that he won at Flemington over 1800m, so the progression through the grades is clear. Luke Cartwright takes the ride and the 54kg is a gift given the quality of opposition.
The knock on him is the step to 2500m, but I'm not worried. He's run 2520m already and was strong to the line, and his racing pattern suggests he'll relish the longer trip. He'll likely settle midfield, possibly three or four back given the likely tempo, and Luke Cartwright can time his run from the 600m. The class edge is significant.
Garachico is the obvious danger on recent form. He was beaten only 0.4 lengths at Flemington over this trip last start, which is solid form, but that was in a race where the winner hasn't come out and franked it yet. Before that he was sixth at Caulfield over 2400m, beaten nearly nine lengths, and fourth at Flemington over 2800m. The consistency is there, but I'm not convinced he's got the turn of foot to match it with Tarvue when the pressure goes on. Daniel Stackhouse is a positive, and the 59kg isn't prohibitive, but I think he's fighting for second.
Steel Run caught my eye with his third at Flemington over 2500m last start, beaten less than a length. That's a nice effort for a lightly raced stayer with only nine career starts. He's clearly still learning his craft, and the step up in distance could suit. The worry is his fourth at Caulfield before that, where he was beaten five lengths over 2000m. If the pace is honest, he'll be storming home, but I think Tarvue has too much class. Michael Kent has him heading in the right direction, and Craig Williams is a massive booking, so there's respect here.
Bright Legend ran second at Sandown over 2400m last start, beaten a nose, which looks competitive. But that was on Soft ground and the form out of that race hasn't been tested yet. Before that he won at Mount Gambier, which is a fair step down from this level. I'm not convinced he's got the class to match it with the top three here.
I couldn't be less interested in Ardakan, who was twelfth at Flemington over 2000m last start, beaten more than eleven lengths. His form is patchy at best, and even his fourth at Flemington over 2530m was only after being beaten a length. Arugamama comes from South Australia and was tenth at Morphettville over 2600m, beaten more than four lengths. The trip across the border rarely helps, and I can't see the form stacking up. Flamin' Romans has been disappointing in three runs this prep, including an eleventh at Flemington last start, and I'm happy to move on.
The pace should be reasonable with Garachico likely to roll forward from barrier eight, while Ardakan might also push up. That should set it up nicely for Tarvue to settle midfield with cover and unleash down the outside from the 400m. I think he's got too much class for this field and I'd be genuinely surprised if he didn't win.
Competitive Handicap With Several Chances
This is a far more open affair and there's very little separating the top half of the field. Rock Them Jools won last start at Cranbourne over this trip on Good ground, which gives him the form edge on face value. Before that he was fourth at Sandown over 1300m, beaten 1.4 lengths, and prior to that he won at Sandown over 1300m by three-quarters of a length. The consistency is there, and Chris Waller doesn't send many across from Sydney without a genuine chance. Beau Mertens takes the ride at 58.5kg, which looks manageable. The concern is whether he can handle the step up in class, but the form suggests he's progressive enough.
Didn't Miss Many is another last-start winner, taking out a Warrnambool maiden over 1400m. Before that he was second at Werribee over the same trip, beaten a quarter length, which suggests he's consistent. The form out of that Warrnambool win hasn't been tested yet, but Archie Alexander has him in good order. Declan Bates is a capable jockey, and the 59kg is fair. I think he's a genuine chance if the tempo suits.
Betwitchery won at Pakenham over 1400m two starts back and was fourth at Morphettville Parks last start, beaten only 0.6 lengths. That's solid form, and the consistency is appealing. Ben Allen takes the ride at 58kg, which is a decent pull in the weights. The form out of that Pakenham win hasn't been spectacular, but she's clearly in good order and maps to get a nice run just off the speed.
Damehood was second at Pakenham over 1200m last start, beaten 1.5 lengths, and before that won at Sandown over 1300m by three-quarters of a length. Craig Williams is a massive booking, and the 57.5kg looks generous. The step up to 1400m is the question mark, but Ciaron Maher clearly thinks she's up to it. If she can handle the extra distance, she's a genuine threat.
House Of Lords won at Moe over 2050m last start, which is a massive distance query here at 1400m. Before that he was fifth at Flemington over 1700m, so there's some form at shorter trips, but I'm not convinced the distance drop suits. Sirius Statement was second at Pakenham over 1400m two starts back, beaten 0.4 lengths, which is competitive form. He's consistent without being brilliant, and I think he'll be in the mix without winning.
Cameron Falls won at Caulfield over 1200m last start, which is a nice effort, but the step up to 1400m is a query. Le Ferrari has been placed in three of his last five starts but hasn't won since early in his prep. I'm not sweet on him at this level. Yahoo Bar won at Echuca last start but had a horror run in Hong Kong before that, and I'm not sure what to make of the form.
The pace should be solid with Cameron Falls and Le Ferrari likely to push forward, which should set it up for the on-pacers and those just off the speed. Rock Them Jools maps to settle midfield and should get every chance, while Betwitchery should be within striking distance throughout. I think Rock Them Jools has the strongest case given his recent form and the Waller factor, but Betwitchery and Damehood are both genuine threats. It's a race where I'd want a decent price to get involved, as there's very little between the top five or six.
Where I Stand
The horse with the strongest case across this card is Tarvue in the Manhari Torney Night Cup. His class edge is significant, and I'd be genuinely surprised if anything else in this field had the quality to match him when the pressure goes on. The Flemington form is solid, the progressive profile suggests he's still improving, and the 54kg is a gift. If you're trying to beat him, you're doing it for the sake of not wanting to back a favourite.
The handicap is far more open, and I'm not rushing in with strong convictions. Rock Them Jools has the form on the board with that Cranbourne win, and the Waller factor can't be ignored. Betwitchery and Damehood both have claims, but I'd want a decent price to get involved given how competitive the top half looks. It's a race where the pace and luck in running will play a significant role, and I'm happy to watch unless something drifts to a generous quote.
