Ladies and gentlemen, punters, equine and wagering enthusiasts, welcome to another edition of Lay of the Day where we find the market's mistakes and exploit them accordingly. Today we're headed to Newcastle for Race 3, the RECRUIT NOW 3YO & UP MAIDEN HANDICAP over 1400m, and I'm taking dead set aim at the favourite.
The Eternal Bridesmaid
Rach is way too short in the market here at around the $3.10 mark. Now I know what you're thinking, she's trained by Chris Waller, she's got Tommy Berry on board, and she's run second in three of her last four starts. Sounds promising, right? Bloody hell, punters, wake up and smell the coffee. This mare has had ELEVEN starts for zero wins. Eleven cracks at it and she's never got her head in front when it matters.
Sure, she won a Rosehill trial back in her form cycle, but that's a barrier trial, not the real deal. When the money's on the line, this mare finds a way to get beaten. She's drawn barrier 4 which isn't terrible, but at 1400m at Newcastle starting from the 1250m chute, there's not a lot of time to settle and she's going to need to work early from that gate. The concern I have is simple: she's just not good enough. If you can't win a maiden after eleven attempts, even with Waller and Berry, there's something missing.
I reckon the real danger here is The Big Blue from barrier 10. Yes, it's a wide gate, but this one's only had four starts and showed real improvement last time at Randwick. Mister Martini from the inside gate is another I'd have in front of our lay. He can settle on the speed and make them run him down.
The Verdict
Rach is a professional placegetter and that's exactly what she'll be again today. The market's falling for the Waller-Berry combination and ignoring the glaring fact that this mare simply doesn't know how to win. Eleven starts, zero wins, and I'd be shocked if number twelve is the charm. I'm laying this one with absolute confidence. Fire up, punters, let's go!
