Inexperience Everywhere You Look
This is a race I'm happy to watch rather than participate in. We've got a field dominated by horses with minimal experience and even less winning form, which makes building any sort of confident case virtually impossible.
Anthropoid has run four times without threatening, most recently finishing 3.67 lengths behind Euripedes at Rosehill over 900m. The winkers go on for the first time, which suggests Brad Widdup is looking for a spark, but I'm not convinced the form is anywhere near good enough for this grade. He's been beaten by better types consistently and I'd need to see significant market support before I changed my view.
Gold Globe is another one struggling to find his way, running sixth at Canterbury last start and over five lengths behind Satin Summer at Randwick before that. Three starts, three defeats, and nothing in the form to suggest he's about to turn it around here. I couldn't be less interested.
The debutant Raise The Bar won a Warwick Farm trial but trials are trials, and we've got no idea how that form translates to race day. The tongue tie goes on first time, which is always a minor concern. Ciaron Maher has Adam Farragher on, not one of his regular riders, which doesn't fill me with confidence.
Machrihanish ran fifth at Newcastle last start, beaten 5.73 lengths, and was even further behind at Rosehill before that. The form simply isn't there, and I'd be genuinely shocked if she figured in the finish.
The pace scenario is murky given the inexperience, but I'd expect one of the Maher runners or Anthropoid to push forward from their inside draws. Whether that sets it up for anything coming from behind is anyone's guess, and frankly, I don't have strong enough convictions about any of these to care. This is a race where the winner might come from anywhere, and that's usually a sign to move on.
Titanium Miss Has The Clearest Claims
This looks a far more straightforward affair than the 2YO minefield, and I think Titanium Miss has the strongest case of the lot. She ran third at Kembla Grange last start in Benchmark 68 grade, beaten 2.3 lengths behind Satness, and crucially, she'd won at Warwick Farm in Benchmark 72 company the start before that. That's the key piece of form here, she's already proven she can handle this level and higher.
The concern is the 61.5kg with Shannen Llewellyn's claim, but when you break it down, she's actually racing off 69 at the weights, which is fair given her recent form. The ear muffs come off for the first time, which is an interesting gear change, and she's got a strong record at this track with three wins from five starts. The form is solid, the track suits, and I think she's the one they all have to beat.
Spaceballs won at Hawkesbury last start over this trip in Benchmark 64 grade, so she's clearly on the way up. The step to 68 level is the question, but she did it comfortably enough, winning by over a length. Jason Deamer has her going the right way, and Zac Lloyd sticking with her is a positive. She's a legitimate threat.
Totoka ran fourth at Warwick Farm in Benchmark 72 company last start, beaten 3.44 lengths, but was much better two starts back when running second here at Newcastle in this grade, beaten 4.21 lengths. That's not a great margin, but she was only 0.36 lengths off the winner in a trial at Beaumont before that. The form is a bit mixed, and I'm not sweet on her at the weights.
Show Business is coming back from a spell after running seventh at Wyong when heavily backed. She won a Class 1 at Kembla Grange three starts ago but has been disappointing in two runs since. The step back to 1300m might help, but I need to see more from her before I'm convinced she's ready to compete at this level fresh.
The rest don't interest me much. Unreachable won at Wyong two starts back but was well beaten at Randwick last time, and Luna Bay has run poorly in her last two. Spirits Burn Deep ran second at Canberra in Benchmark 65 grade but that form doesn't stack up here.
From a pace perspective, I'd expect Titanium Miss to be prominent from the outset, and with Spaceballs also likely to be on speed, we should get an honest tempo. That could set it up for something closing, but I think the top two have enough class to hold on. Titanium Miss is the one with the strongest form credentials, and I'd be surprised if she didn't figure in the finish.
Magnatear's Form Franks Him As The One To Beat
This is where the card gets serious, and I think Magnatear has been badly underestimated by the market. Let's start with the form that matters: he ran third at Rosehill Gardens last start in Benchmark 100 grade, beaten only 0.39 lengths behind Lord Penman. That's elite provincial form, and it came after he'd run fourth at the Gold Coast behind King Of Roseau, who has since franked that form by running second in the Villiers at Randwick. The form lines are rock solid.
Go back further and you see he won at Randwick in Benchmark 88 grade by 0.26 lengths, and before that, he was fourth behind Countyourblessings, beaten 1.48 lengths. That's three consecutive runs in metropolitan company where he's been competitive at or above this level, and now he gets his chance in a race worth $250,000. The blinkers go back on, which is a positive given he wore them when winning at Randwick, and Richard & Will Freedman clearly think he's ready for this step up. I think the form is too strong to ignore.
Melody Again won at Scone last start on a Soft track, but that was a very weak country race, and I'm not convinced that form translates to this level. She ran third at Rosehill Gardens two starts back behind Yorkshire, beaten 0.65 lengths, which is better form, but Yorkshire is a class above most of these and the margin still isn't compelling. She's racing off 100 at the handicap, which is fair, but I think she's a grade below the best here.
Green Fly won at Eagle Farm last start on Soft going, but he's a tricky horse to assess. He's had 36 starts for seven wins, and while he's been competitive in Melbourne, I'm not sure this trip at Newcastle on a Good track suits him as well. He's shown his best form on Soft tracks with 20 starts for five wins, and I'd want to see more evidence he can handle these conditions before I'm convinced.
Tuileries ran fifth at Randwick last start behind Weeping Woman, beaten 2.09 lengths, which is solid form given that race has worked out well. She was second to Napoleonic at Randwick before that, beaten 1.46 lengths, and third behind Mal Coupe at Rosehill. The form is consistent without being outstanding, and she's racing off 92 at the handicap with a 1kg claim. She's in the mix but I think she's a place chance at best.
Just Feelin' Lucky won at Randwick two starts back over 1000m, but she was well beaten by Weeping Woman last start, finishing 2.77 lengths back. The step up to 1400m is a query, and while she's won twice at this trip, I'm not convinced she's at the level of the top few here. The form doesn't stack up against Magnatear's recent runs.
Coal Crusher is a nine-year-old who's shown his best form on Heavy tracks with four wins from eight starts. He won at Warwick Farm three starts back on Soft going, but was well beaten at Randwick last start, finishing ninth and 5.36 lengths behind King Of Roseau. The form is too inconsistent, and I think his best days are behind him.
The rest of the field doesn't excite me much. West Of Africa hasn't won since early 2024 and was well beaten at Randwick last start. War Eternal ran fourth at Rosehill in Benchmark 100 grade last start, which is solid, but he's another who's shown his best form on wet tracks and I'm not sure he's good enough here. Imposant is a class below, and Churchill's Choice won at Beaumont last start but that was a very weak race with only five runners.
From a pace perspective, I'd expect Coal Crusher and possibly Just Feelin' Lucky to push forward early, which should set up a decent tempo. Magnatear typically races midfield with cover, and that should suit him perfectly here. The track is rated Good, which is ideal for him given his record of four wins from 16 starts on Good tracks.
The case for Magnatear is straightforward: he's the only horse in this field with recent metropolitan form at Benchmark 100 level that's been franked by subsequent results. The margin of 0.39 lengths behind Lord Penman at Rosehill is elite form for this grade, and I think he's the horse with the strongest credentials. I'd be genuinely surprised if he didn't figure in the finish, and I think he's the one to beat.
Where I Stand
The 2YO race is one to watch from the sidelines. Too much inexperience, too little winning form, and too many question marks to build a confident case for anyone. I'm happy to let that one play out without me.
In the Benchmark 68 for fillies and mares, Titanium Miss has the clearest form credentials. She's won at Warwick Farm in Benchmark 72 grade and ran a solid third at Kembla Grange last start. The ear muffs coming off is an interesting gear change, and her record at Newcastle is excellent. She's the one with the strongest case.
The Newcastle Stakes is where the value lies, and I think Magnatear has been badly underestimated. His third at Rosehill behind Lord Penman is elite form for this grade, and the collateral form through King Of Roseau at the Gold Coast is rock solid. He's racing in the right form, the blinkers go back on, and the Freedmans clearly think he's ready for this. I'd be genuinely surprised if anything could beat him on the form he's shown in his last three runs. He's the standout of the day for me.
