City Wok's Second Chance In A Weak Heat
City Wok went to a nose here last start over this trip on a Good track, beaten by a horse that has won since. That's solid form for this grade, and Dean Parker keeps the ride. The issue is the 69.5kg and the step up to Soft, which we haven't seen him handle. He's had seven goes at this and still hasn't won, but I think this is as good a chance as he'll get in a race that doesn't have much depth.
Merry Jack has been terrible in three starts, beaten more than five lengths in all of them bar a second at Mount Gambier in a 906m maiden where he got rolled a nose. Quinton Scott has persisted but I'm not seeing any improvement. The form out of that Terang run where he finished eighth is non-existent, and I couldn't be less interested.
Spot The Grey has had 16 starts for zero wins. He was belted 23 lengths at Mount Gambier on a Heavy track last start, and before that he'd been running in 2100m races on the synthetic. This is back to 1600m on a Soft track and I'd be genuinely shocked if he figured. Vadar is in the same boat, seven starts without threatening, beaten nearly nine lengths at Terang two back.
The pace should be genuine with City Wok likely to roll forward from the inside gate, and Spot The Grey also a natural leader if Joshua Parker wants to use him. That might set it up for something off the speed, but I'm not seeing a closer with the form to take advantage. Druthers is a Ben, Will & Jd Hayes runner having his third start, beaten eight lengths at Werribee last time, and the stable doesn't win many of these country maidens at big odds.
I think City Wok is the one they have to beat. The form is there, the distance suits, and Dean Parker knows him. If you want to oppose him, I'd suggest watching rather than punting, because the alternatives are all deeply flawed.
Allen And Currie Bookings Tell The Story
Life After Love has John Allen booked and that's not an accident. She's a Ciaron Maher mare who has been racing at Sandown, Caulfield and Flemington in better company than this. Last start she was fifth at Sandown Hillside, beaten eight lengths, but two back she was only a length off the winner at Sandown Lakeside. The third placegetter from that run, Ashtan, came out and won next start at Mornington, which gives that form a nice look. She's dropping significantly in grade here and the booking of John Allen for a country maiden tells me the stable thinks she's ready to break through.
Prince Pienza is the other runner with a big jockey booking. Luke Currie gets on for the Michael, John & Wayne Hawkes stable, and this horse ran an excellent second at Moe last start, beaten two and a quarter lengths. Before that he'd been racing in Sydney without threatening, but the Moe run suggests he's found his level. The winner that day was a short-priced favourite and Prince Pienza stuck on well. I think he's a genuine threat.
Czech Republic is a Mark & Levi Kavanagh first-starter who has been placed in four Flemington jump-outs. Brad Rawiller takes the ride and the stable doesn't send many to Kilmore without a chance. The trial form is strong, with multiple seconds at headquarters, and I think he's one of the more interesting runners at longer odds.
Prestige Erick was only beaten a length at Ballarat on debut and has since had a couple of trials. That Ballarat form has worked out reasonably, with the winner going on to run well again. Jake Duffy keeps the ride and the stable clearly thinks there's improvement to come.
The rest don't interest me. Immortal Jimmy has been belted in two starts, Captivating Storm has had eight goes without winning, and Shahar has been consistent without ever looking like winning. The pace should be honest with several runners likely to push forward, which might suit Life After Love coming from off the speed. I think she's the one with the strongest case given the class drop and the jockey booking, but Prince Pienza and Czech Republic both have legitimate claims.
Fortyfour Magnum's Perfect Record Demands Respect
Fortyfour Magnum is undefeated at Kilmore over 1100m. That's not a huge sample size, but when a horse has a perfect record at a specific track and trip, you ignore it at your peril. David Dean has him here again and Nadia Daniels takes the ride. Last start he was seventh at Kyneton, beaten five lengths, but before that he was third at Ballarat on a Good track, only a length and a bit off the winner. The form out of that Ballarat race is solid, with the winner going on to run well again.
The issue is he's drawn barrier one and will need to show early speed or get shuffled back. If Nadia Daniels can slot him into a forward position without using too much petrol, I think he's the one to beat. The track record is too strong to dismiss.
Shanghai Venture is a proven winner at this track, which immediately puts him in the mix. Luke Currie takes the ride and this horse won at Colac four starts back before running third at Hanging Rock, beaten a length and a half. That Hanging Rock form looks solid, with the winner going on to frank the form. He's 38 starts into his career and knows how to win, which counts for plenty in these lower grade races.
Too Darn Crystal won last start at Ballarat on a Soft track and has John Allen booked again. That's two rides from John Allen on this card, which tells you he's been selective about his bookings. The Ballarat win was only over 900m, so stepping up to 1100m is a query, but the stable clearly thinks he's up to it. The form before that was ordinary, but winning form is winning form.
Volkano ran second at Terang last start, beaten only a third of a length, and has Linda Meech on from barrier two. That's a huge advantage on a track where barrier speed matters. Before that he'd won at Ballarat Synthetic by four and a half lengths, which suggests he's got ability. The query is whether he can reproduce that synthetic form on a Soft track, but the Terang run suggests he can handle different surfaces.
Amraam has been thereabouts without winning recently, running second at Kilmore over this trip two starts back, beaten three lengths. He's rock-hard fit and Jake Noonan keeps the ride, but I'm not convinced he's got enough to beat the better horses in this field.
The pace should be solid with Fortyfour Magnum, Shanghai Venture and potentially Snappy Beau all looking to get forward. That might set it up for a closer, but I think the race will be won by one of the on-pace runners. Fortyfour Magnum is the one I'd be most surprised to see beaten given his track record, but Shanghai Venture and Too Darn Crystal both have strong claims with their jockey bookings.
Where I Stand
City Wok is the best of a weak bunch in the opener. The form is there, he nearly won here last start, and I don't see anything else with a better case. It's not exciting, but it's logical.
Race 5 is the most interesting race on the card analytically. Life After Love has the strongest case given the class drop and the John Allen booking. The form at Sandown Lakeside two starts back has been franked, and dropping from metropolitan maidens to a Kilmore maiden is a significant gear change. Prince Pienza is the clear danger with Luke Currie on, and Czech Republic is the first-starter I'd be watching closely at longer odds.
Fortyfour Magnum in the BM56 sprint has a perfect record at this track and trip, which you simply cannot ignore. The barrier is a concern, but if Nadia Daniels can get him into the right spot early, I'd be genuinely surprised if he didn't figure. Shanghai Venture and Too Darn Crystal are both legitimate threats with strong jockey bookings, which makes this a harder race than it looks on paper.
