Ancient Scent Looks The Goods In Modest Ipswich Affair

Ancient Scent returns to Ipswich after a progressive campaign that's seen her win two from five and place in two others, and I think she's the horse they all have to beat here. The Declan Maher mare has been knocking on the door against better opposition than this lot, and while this isn't a race that'll set the world alight, it's one where the form lines are pretty clear if you're willing to do the work.

Ancient Scent Has The Form Edge In Modest Heat

Ancient Scent is the standout on form here and I'd be surprised if she doesn't go very close. She's won two from five, most recently at Gold Coast over 1100m on Good ground, and the run before that she was beaten just over two lengths at Beaudesert over this 1200m trip. What's important is the quality of opposition she's been facing. Her third at Eagle Farm three starts back was in much stronger company than this, beaten only 1.15 lengths, and that form has been franked by the horses around her in that race. She maps to sit just off the speed under Damien Boutet, and with 58.5kg she's not badly weighted at all. The step back to this grade looks the key.

Esprit Du Jour is the main danger and comes off a solid third at Ipswich over 1100m last start, beaten 1.88 lengths. Before that she was a narrow second at Doomben over 1000m, going down by just 0.35 lengths, which is competitive form. The Tony Gollan stable is always a threat at this track, and Leah Martyn knows her way around here. She's placed in three of her last five and the consistency is there. The question is whether she can find the extra gear to beat Ancient Scent, and I'm not convinced she can. She'll be thereabouts but I think she's a length or two short of the top pick.

National Interest has been placed three times from his last five but the form doesn't stack up when you dig into it. That third at Gold Coast two starts back was over 1000m and he was 1.6 lengths off, which is respectable, but the third at Beaudesert before that was a distant 10.65 lengths. He won at Ballina four starts ago by the barest of margins, 0.04 lengths, but that's country grade and this is a step up. With 60kg on his back he's not well treated by the weights, and I think he's going to find a couple of these too sharp.

Bold As Brass has been consistent without threatening to win, and that sixth at Sunshine Coast last start over 1200m was 4.76 lengths off the winner. The second at Sunshine Coast three starts back over 1000m, beaten 0.62 lengths, shows he can get close but he's not finishing them off. With 58.5kg he's in the mix on weights but I just don't see the form line that suggests he's good enough to beat the top two. He's a place chance at best.

Stylish Joker I couldn't be less interested in. He's run three consecutive races finishing between eighth and eleventh, including a 30.8-length flogging at Toowoomba on Heavy ground. His only win came at Warwick over 800m and this is a completely different assignment. I'd be genuinely shocked if he figured in the finish.

All Too Foxy has been placed recently at Lismore and Murwillumbah, beaten 3.56 lengths and 0.61 lengths respectively, but that's country grade and she's up against it here with no rider confirmed yet and only 54.5kg. She won at Lismore three starts back but I think this is too hard.

The pace scenario looks straightforward enough. National Interest will likely roll forward from barrier one and try to dictate, with Bold As Brass also showing early speed. That should set it up nicely for Ancient Scent to sit just off them and pounce in the straight. Esprit Du Jour will be doing similar work but I think Ancient Scent has the better turn of foot when it counts.

The form points clearly to Ancient Scent here. She's racing in easier grade than her recent form suggests, she's fit and racing well, and the map suits her perfectly. Esprit Du Jour is the logical danger but I think the top pick is a class above this lot.

Where I Stand

Ancient Scent is the horse with the strongest case at Ipswich. She's dropping back in grade after competing well in better company, and the form she's shown at Eagle Farm and Gold Coast is several lengths superior to what most of these have been doing. The map suits her perfectly and I'd be genuinely surprised if she didn't go very close.

Esprit Du Jour is the only one I can see troubling her, but even then I think she's a length or two short on form. The rest can be dismissed fairly quickly. National Interest is too high in the weights, Bold As Brass doesn't win enough, and Stylish Joker has form that's nowhere near good enough for this grade.