The speed map for the Queen of the West feature is an absolute minefield. Yorkel will likely roll forward from barrier one, Saint Philomena has shown she'll take a sit just off the speed, and Proclivity maps to get a lovely run from the inside half of the barrier draw. The problem is the form lines are all over the shop, which makes this benchmark 58 over the mile a genuine puzzle. I'm far more interested in what unfolds in the two maidens, where the form actually stacks up with some authority.
A Feature Race That Doesn't Excite Me One Bit
I'll be completely honest here, this doesn't excite me at all and I'm happy to move on after a brief assessment. The form is provincial benchmark 58 grade at best, and trying to separate these horses with any conviction feels like guesswork.
Yorkel won here at the trip two starts back, but that was in what looks an ordinary race, and he's since been belted by 6.38 lengths at Mudgee on soft ground. The gelding is nine years old and carrying 62kg, which is a mountain at this level. Izzy Neale takes the ride with the 1.5kg claim helping, but I'm not convinced this form is anywhere near good enough given he was 12th last start.
Proclivity caught my eye initially with that Gilgandra win sandwiched between two Tamworth placings, but the most recent run at Tamworth saw her beaten 4.4 lengths into second. The horse that beat her, I haven't seen come out and frank that form in any meaningful way. She gets in light at 59kg under Kody Nestor, and the inside gate is a positive, but I need more evidence she can handle this grade consistently.
Saint Philomena ran second here at the trip two starts back, beaten 2.89 lengths, which is probably the best recent form reference for this race. The form before that includes a Randwick run where she was 13th beaten nearly eight lengths, which tells you she's not up to city grade. But at this level, with Jake Pracey-holmes on, she's clearly competitive. The 58kg pull in the weights compared to Yorkel is significant.
Just On Fire won at Condobolin over 1700m last start, which is a nice enough effort, but Condobolin form is about as weak as it gets. The third placing here at Dubbo three starts back, beaten 3.22 lengths, suggests she's in the mix without being a standout. Connie Greig has her fit and Brooke Stower knows the mare well.
The speed map suggests Yorkel will try to lead or sit outside the leader from barrier one, with Saint Philomena likely to settle just off the pace. Proclivity should get a nice run from barrier four, tracking the speed with cover. If the pace is genuinely run, it might set up for something closing, but I don't see a tearaway leader here.
Look, I think Saint Philomena is probably the most consistent of this lot at the grade, and the weight relief is crucial. But I couldn't be less interested in getting involved in this race. The form is too muddled, the class is questionable, and there's very little separating the top five. I'm happy to watch and move on to races where I have stronger opinions.
Magic Merlin Looks The Class Runner In An Open Maiden
This is a far more interesting race than the feature, and I think there's genuine quality here that will go on and win better races. The speed map should see Indie Mae or Muirisc push forward from the inside gates, with Magic Merlin likely to settle midfield from barrier nine with cover under Kody Nestor.
Magic Merlin is the horse I'm most interested in. The form line is rock solid: second at Walcha beaten 3.56 lengths, then fourth at Tamworth over 1400m beaten less than two lengths. That Tamworth run is the key form reference. She was only 1.97 lengths off the winner in what looked a strong maiden, and the way she finished suggests the step up to the mile is exactly what she needs. This is only her second preparation, she's trained by Brett & Georgie Cavanough who do well with their horses, and the booking of Kody Nestor is a significant positive. I think she's the class runner in this field.
Real Housewives demands serious respect after running second here over the trip last start, beaten only 1.69 lengths. That's a form line you can't ignore when she backs up at the same track and distance. Before that, she was third at Tamworth beaten 1.74 lengths, so the consistency is there. Sally Torrens has her racing well, and while Leanne Boyd takes a 2kg claim, I'm not sure that's a negative given the mare's recent form. She maps to settle worse than midfield from barrier 11, which is a concern if the pace isn't genuine.
Cobocco has a strong Dubbo record with a second here over the trip three starts back, beaten 1.31 lengths. The form has been solid without being spectacular, and Grant Buckley taking the ride is a tick. The gelding has had 12 starts now without winning, which is a concern, but he's clearly knocking on the door. From barrier five, he should get a decent run in transit.
Recognition is the wildcard with Mathew Cahill taking the ride, which is a massive booking for a maiden. The form includes a third here at Dubbo over 1300m beaten 2.54 lengths, and before that a sixth over 1400m here beaten only 2.29 lengths. Andrew Ryan clearly thinks enough of this horse to engage Cahill, and that's a strong pointer. The question is whether three runs back from a spell is enough fitness, but the class of the jockey can't be ignored.
Takethemoneyandrun has been placed four times, including a second at Gilgandra over 1600m beaten 1.59 lengths. The consistency is there, but I'm not convinced the form is strong enough to beat the better horses in this field. Billy Cray is a capable rider, but I need to see more to suggest this gelding can finally break through.
I think Magic Merlin is the horse with the strongest case here. The form is the best in the race, the rise to a mile looks ideal, and the Cavanough stable knows how to place their horses. Real Housewives is the clear danger with her last start form at the track and trip, while Recognition with Cahill on board is the roughie that could surprise if the booking means what I think it does. But if Magic Merlin brings her Tamworth form, I'd be genuinely surprised if she doesn't win this.
Nightwalker's Consistency Makes Her Hard To Beat
A super maiden over 1300m with $50,000 on offer, and the form actually stacks up better than you'd expect for horses that haven't won a race. The speed map is crucial here. Narmer will likely push forward from barrier one given his recent form over shorter trips, while Be Guided has shown early pace in her recent runs. The question is whether the tempo will be hot enough to set it up for the closers.
Nightwalker is the standout on consistency alone. The form line reads: second at Dubbo over this trip beaten 1.42 lengths, third here over 1200m beaten 4.17 lengths, then a string of placings at Orange including two seconds beaten narrow margins. This mare has had 33 starts for four seconds and 11 thirds, which tells you she's honest as the day is long but struggles to break through. Alison Smith has her racing in career-best form, and Jordan Quince takes a 2kg claim which gets her down to 55kg. From barrier 14, she'll need luck, but the form is by far the most consistent in this field.
Miss Maverick was desperately unlucky last start, beaten only 0.71 lengths into second at Tamworth over 1400m. Before that, she ran second at Orange over 1000m beaten 0.67 lengths on a heavy track. Connie Greig has her racing well, and the form suggests she's crying out to win a race. Izzy Neale takes the 1.5kg claim, and from barrier 10, she should get a nice run tracking the speed. The step back to 1300m from 1400m is no issue given her form over shorter trips.
Be Guided has placed three times from just three starts, which is a record that demands respect. The form includes two thirds at Tamworth over 1200m, beaten narrow margins on both occasions. The fifth at Tamworth last start over 1200m was only 0.52 lengths off the winner, which franks the form nicely. Ben Blay has brought her along slowly, and Ella Drew taking the ride is a positive. From barrier three, she'll likely push forward and try to control the race.
Gyra ran second at Beaumont over 1150m on a soft track beaten only 0.57 lengths, which is solid form for this grade. Before that, she was third at Tamworth over 950m beaten 2.1 lengths. Billy Cray is a strong booking, and Nikki Pollock knows how to get them ready. The concern is the form is over shorter trips, and I'm not convinced she's as effective at 1300m.
Strassman has been racing at Nowra and Kembla Grange, which is a different level to this, but the form is mixed. The second at Sapphire Coast over 1400m beaten 1.37 lengths is the best form line, but I'm not sure how that stacks up against provincial NSW form. Adrian Layt taking the ride suggests the stable thinks she's competitive.
The speed map suggests Be Guided and Narmer will likely push forward early, which could set up a genuine tempo. Nightwalker will settle back and look to run on late, while Miss Maverick should get a nice trail from midfield. If the pace is hot, it sets up perfectly for Nightwalker, but if it's slow, Be Guided could pinch it on the front.
I think Nightwalker is the horse to beat here. The form is the most consistent in the race, she's racing in career-best form, and the weight relief from the claim is significant. Miss Maverick is the clear danger with her last start form suggesting she's about to break through, while Be Guided is the on-pace threat if she can control the race from the front. But Nightwalker's consistency makes her very hard to beat, and I'd be surprised if she doesn't figure in the finish.
Where I Stand
I'm far more interested in the two maidens than the feature race, which tells you everything about the quality of the card. The benchmark 58 is a mess, and I'm happy to sit it out completely.
Magic Merlin in race four is the horse with the strongest case on the entire card. The form line through Tamworth is rock solid, the step up to a mile looks ideal, and the Cavanough stable has her placed perfectly. If she brings her recent form, I'd be genuinely surprised if she doesn't win this maiden.
Nightwalker in race five is the other standout. The consistency is undeniable with 33 starts for four seconds and 11 thirds, and she's racing in career-best form right now. The wide gate is a concern, but the form is by far the best in the race. Miss Maverick is the clear danger given her last start run at Tamworth, but Nightwalker's consistency makes her very hard to beat.
If I'm forced to have an opinion on the feature, Saint Philomena is probably the most consistent at the grade, but I couldn't be less interested in getting involved. The form is too muddled, and there's very little separating the top five. I'm happy to focus on the races where the form actually makes sense.
