Ladies and gentlemen, punters and equine enthusiasts, we've got a cracking Lay of the Day at Dubbo and I reckon the market has got this one all wrong. Zoysia is favourite in Race 2, the maiden over 1100m, and I'd be shocked if this one salutes. Let me tell you why.
Metro Maiden Meets Country Reality
Zoysia comes to Dubbo off metropolitan form that frankly isn't good enough to warrant favouritism. Two starts, no wins, no places. The best this horse has managed is a fifth at Canterbury over 1200m, beaten over two lengths. Before that? Ninth at Kensington over 850m, beaten over three lengths. This is a maiden that's had every chance in the city and hasn't fired.
Now Kieren Hazelton brings the horse to the country thinking it's a class edge, but I'm not buying it. The pace scenario here is crucial. We've got no identified speed in this field, which means it'll be a tactical, slowly run affair. That plays into the hands of horses with a turn of foot, and I haven't seen anything in Zoysia's form to suggest it can produce that.
The real dangers here are Claudio and Allusive Intent, both around the five to six dollar mark. They're proven at this level and won't be intimidated by a city maiden that's shown nothing. Fortians is another at decent odds that looks far more likely than the favourite.
The Verdict
This is a classic case of the market overrating metropolitan form that simply isn't there. Zoysia has had two genuine cracks in town and been found wanting both times. Coming to the country doesn't magically make you a winner, especially when you're winless from two starts. I reckon Claudio or Allusive Intent are the real hopes here, and at much better value. Lay the favourite with confidence, punters. Fire up!
