Rock Revolution Has These Covered
This looks a straightforward assignment for Rock Revolution, who bolted in over this trip last start and gets in beautifully at the weights. That was a dominant display on a Wet Fast surface, the same conditions we're dealing with here, and the form around that win is solid. Before coming north, this horse was competitive in Bendigo and Kilmore company, beaten less than a length at Bendigo three starts back and winning at Kilmore by 1.75 lengths the start prior. The step up to Darwin provincial grade has clearly suited, and Hannah Le Blanc sticks with the ride.
The danger, if there is one, comes from Awash, who ran second over this trip two starts back, beaten a couple of lengths. Gary Clarke has Jarrod Todd back on board, which is a positive, and this horse has won five times from 34 starts with nine seconds, so the consistency is there. But here's my issue: that second two starts back was to a horse that hasn't exactly come out and franked the form in brilliant fashion, and the seventh at 1300m last time was ordinary. I think this one needs everything to fall right, and even then I'm not convinced the form is good enough to turn the tables on the winner.
Maxxi Bon is fitter now after a fifth at 1300m last start, and the distance should suit perfectly given the Morphettville win at this trip three starts back. But that was in South Australian provincial company, and I think the step up in weight combined with the fact this horse has been a touch disappointing since arriving in Darwin makes it hard to be confident. The other two, Capitol Hill and New Enterprise, are battling away but I couldn't be less interested in their form at the weights.
From a pace perspective, Awash will likely try to roll forward and control things from the front, with Rock Revolution sitting just off the speed with cover. That's the perfect scenario for the favourite to pounce late. I'd be genuinely surprised if Rock Revolution doesn't win this comfortably.
Fly Chasing the Hat-Trick
Fly has won its last two starts and looks the clear horse to beat here, even though the step up to 1300m is a slight query. The last two wins have come at 1200m and 1100m respectively, both on different surfaces, which shows versatility. That most recent win at 1200m on a Wet Fast track is directly relevant to today's conditions, and the one before at 1100m on Good ground was equally impressive. Jarrod Todd has been aboard for both wins and clearly has this horse going well. The form prior to this winning streak shows a couple of fourths when stepping up in distance to 1600m and 1300m, which does make me think twice about the trip, but the horse is in such good form right now that I think it can overcome that minor concern.
Vanguard Legend is the main danger and maps beautifully from barrier one with Hannah Le Blanc aboard. This horse has been consistently in the money, with four wins and four placings from 14 starts, and the form around recent runs is solid. The third at 1200m two starts back was beaten 5.8 lengths, which isn't flash, but the second at 2050m before that, beaten 1.8 lengths, shows versatility in distance. The wins at 1600m and 1200m earlier in the preparation prove this horse can handle anything from a mile to a sprint. I think this one will sit just off the speed and be thereabouts, but I'm not convinced it has the tactical speed to beat Fly in a sprint finish.
Bruno Bruno is another who loves the track and won at this distance three starts back. The second at 1200m last start, beaten 1.3 lengths, is solid form, and Tayarn Halter clearly has this horse in good order. But again, I think Fly is just a class above at the moment. Pleasing Smile ran third at this trip last start, beaten 4.69 lengths, which is respectable enough for a place chance at longer odds, while Bollon and Brash Lass look outclassed.
The pace should be genuine with Fly likely to sit just off the speed, while Vanguard Legend will push forward from the inside. I think Fly has too much speed for these and should make it three in a row.
Physical Graffiti Too Slick for These
Physical Graffiti won last start at 1200m on a Wet Fast track and drops back to 1100m here, which should be ideal. That win was authoritative, and the form before that includes a second at 1200m on Good ground, beaten 2.5 lengths, and another win at 1200m four starts back. The fifth at 1100m three starts ago is the only time this horse has tackled this trip in recent form, and while it wasn't brilliant, I'm prepared to overlook it given the horse is clearly in much better form now. Jarrod Todd has been aboard for the last two starts and clearly has this horse humming. The 61kg is a concern, but I think the class edge is significant enough to overcome the weight.
Miami Vice has been knocking on the door with three consecutive placings at 1100m and 1000m, all in the last month. The second at 1100m two starts back, beaten 1.8 lengths, and the third at the same trip last start, beaten 3.01 lengths, show consistency at this level. The win at 1100m four starts ago, by a commanding 4.3 lengths, proves this horse can win at the distance when things go right. But here's my issue: this horse has been getting every chance to win in recent starts and hasn't been able to close the deal. I think Physical Graffiti is just a bit sharper at the moment.
Divine Bene ran eighth at this track and trip two starts back, beaten 8.78 lengths, which is poor form. Before that, the runs in city company in Sydney show this horse was competitive at a higher level, including a third at Randwick in heavy ground beaten less than a length. But the recent form in Darwin has been disappointing, and I'm not convinced this horse has acclimatised to the conditions up north. Brat is a 55-start veteran with 12 wins but has been battling away in recent starts, while Viaconi ran eighth at this trip two starts back and looks outclassed in this company.
From a pace perspective, Physical Graffiti should be able to sit just off the speed or even lead if Jarrod Todd wants to be aggressive. Miami Vice will likely settle mid-pack and try to run on late. I think Physical Graffiti has too much speed and class for these and should win with a bit in hand.
Where I Stand
The two horses with the strongest cases on this card are Rock Revolution in the opener and Fly in Race 2. Both won last start in dominant fashion and look a class above their opposition here. Rock Revolution gets in beautifully at the weights and should handle the Wet Fast conditions perfectly based on that last-start win. Fly is chasing a hat-trick and, while the step up to 1300m is a slight query, I think the horse is in such good form that it can overcome any distance concerns.
In Race 4, Physical Graffiti looks the most likely winner despite carrying 61kg. The last-start win was impressive, and the drop back to 1100m should be ideal. Miami Vice is the main danger but has had every chance to win in recent starts and hasn't been able to close the deal. I'd be surprised if Physical Graffiti didn't figure prominently.
The rest of the card doesn't excite me at all, and I'm happy to focus on the three races where the form points clearly in one direction. When you've got two last-start winners who look miles ahead of their opposition, there's no point trying to be clever for the sake of it.
